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The Economist house-price indices

economist.com

31–40 of 46 posts

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#31
post #15
post #3

Chicago is so ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the very small group of "large american cities with big functional public transit networks." Never thought I'd really consider moving back home, but that's definitely something I didn't appreciate growing up. Given the lack of geographic constraints, it's amazing how expensive the DC area is. In % terms since 2000 it looks like only SF has exceeded it out of th…

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up.…

Chicago also has a very weak job market in the tech space. Relative to the Bay, Seattle, LA and NY, it has practically zero noteworthy growing and innovative companies.

Most of Chicago's top talent is stuck at places like Boeing or Exelon where they make a good living in the low to mid six figures, but it's really hard to get a huge surge in home prices like in the Bay without employee equity going up 100x, which just doesn't happen with the large mature companies that dominate the landscape in Chicago.

In my experience, this lack of innovation sits squarely on the shoulders of the wealthy in that city. They have expressed very little interest in being educated in the tech space. For example, in 2013, when I tried to explain to them why a bitcoin brokerage could be a good idea, I had to try to educate them in ways that are totally unreasonable. How do you even explain what bitcoin is to someone who only understands basic arithmetic and whose tech chops extend to Excel and web sites? In the end they all just assumed I was pitching a scam, and I don't really blame them, given how the whole thing must just sound fake. But in the Bay, where VCs are run by really intelligent people who can go home to read and understand the white paper and who probably know more than the people they invest in, it's a wonderful starting point.

Lately, VCs like the Pritzker group have really opened up to taking risk at least, but they're kind of just throwing darts randomly into things they don't understand (see Outcome Health). We really need people like Larry Page and Gordon Moore (or whoever, you know what I'm saying) here to help allocate funds in productive ways.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll be fine in the States. Life expectancy is decreasing - https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-expectancy... Meanwhile, in the rest of the civilized world, we are increasing pension age, replacing defined benefits pensions with defined contributions, and lots of micro effects. The pension system is, of course, workable. It just needs adjusting to longer expected lifespans and, of course, increased fu…

No, the incentives of taxpayer funded defined benefit pensions (lifelong annuities for worker and spouse) are unsustainable. Problem 1 is the inability to forecast 30 years into the future, problem 2 is the people whose money is being spent (future taxpayers) aren't in the decision making process. Problem 3 is low voter turnout among non government employee populations, so politicians do whatever they have to make su…

You didn't read what I wrote. My first point was the defined benefits are already phased on in the rest of the developed world. Your other points do not address the main point of whether the US can afford to pay pensions. Of course it can. Countries like Italy still survive, even while funding 25% of people in the old system (defined benefits).

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#34
Fantastic. I'm sharing this far and wide. I knew my economy was nuts, this proves what a unique blend of nutty economies I'm part of. AU outranked by NZ for outrageous house price inflation! who knew? Ireland is looking good right now. All that GFC lunacy paid off in a huge housing stock I guess.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#35
post #5

Are there any well-known theories that explain these disparities? I was quite surprised by the nearly-flat cost of housing in Germany (relative to inflation), for example. Is this a product of legislative, economic, or cultural differences?

German banks lend against productive endeavor, shunning the Anglophone rentier behaviour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpq2eqz6mR0 They also make land available to build on, unlike former UK colonies which all use a combination of zoning to suppress supply and loose credit to increase bidding levels. All former UK colonies have land bubbles.

RE value is all about location and all factors related therein. Ie everything from local legal factors through to view and relative scarcity. RE in constrained places will always have a higher price/sqft than less dense places. The markets also somewhat ensure all the other costs of RE (ie building components like steel, wood, and labor) cost around the same from place to place. But land can’t be arbitrated between localities.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've forever wanted to see this, and I'm not sure if I just suck at searching, or if no one does this. It doesn't seem like it should be /too/ hard. I mean, property taxes are going to be different in different regions of each country, but getting a rough average shouldn't be too hard. And it's not too hard to get interest rates for countries for the past 20-ish years.

The problem is that you don't have to just find two numbers (interest rate, tax rate) for each location and year. You have to account for: - different approaches to mortgages (fixed term vs not, different typical terms, etc) - extremely different tax regimes (e.g., Switzerland has no property tax, does have a wealth tax, and adds to your income an estimated rental cost for the property) And now once you've gathered a…

Great point -- but by taxes, I meant to include all that stuff. I guess that could get really tricky over time, since Switzerland--I'm guessing--introduced these laws within the last 30 years. But given that the economist article only covers like 30 countries, it doesn't seem like it's that much work. Maybe I'll take a stab at it.

Comparing them is a good point as well. The economist article doesn't go far enough in my opinion.

I'm interested mostly in mortgage payment vs rent. And mortgage payment vs income (after taxes).

Even income after taxes is a little tricky. Not sure if they're are any countries with REALLY high sales tax, but things like that could be worth considering.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#37
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up.…

>Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. Is it really noticeably higher than other comparable cities with good public transit? Also, in my experience, most people don't make real estate decisions based on underfunded pension liabilities. It's more likely that prices are low for the…

Yes, the Illinois fiscal situation is dramatically, vastly worse than California or New York’s situation.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#38
post #15
post #3

Chicago is so ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the very small group of "large american cities with big functional public transit networks." Never thought I'd really consider moving back home, but that's definitely something I didn't appreciate growing up. Given the lack of geographic constraints, it's amazing how expensive the DC area is. In % terms since 2000 it looks like only SF has exceeded it out of th…

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up.…

That may be a (somewhat unintentional) Georgian Land Tax:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_tax

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. Is it really noticeably higher than other comparable cities with good public transit? Also, in my experience, most people don't make real estate decisions based on underfunded pension liabilities. It's more likely that prices are low for the…

Yes, the Illinois fiscal situation is dramatically, vastly worse than California or New York’s situation.

I was referring only to the property taxes. I'm of course aware of the severity of the pension situation both in IL and in Chicago Public Schools.
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