Why things might have taken so long • Hacker News Board

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#31

Post by simonbarker87 » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:03 AM UTC

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

This is not the case, the famous (if apocryphal) quote of "everything that can be invented has been invented" made in 1900 by the head of the US patent office was clearly wrong and made either in jest or due to an enormous lack of imagination. The point is that there is always more to invent and the possibilities keep increasing.

There are plenty of inventions yet to make, from complex AI enabled devices down to the simple mundane items that make daily life slightly easier. I founded a company based on the latter that is ticking over nicely.

By saying that it is harder to invent things now shows you have fallen into one of the traps that the author highlights:

> If you have never seen rope, it actually doesn’t occur to you that rope would come in handy, or to ask yourself how to make some.

You have never seen the thing you need to invent so it takes either a leap of inspiration or a concerted effort to sit down and think of something new to solve a problem you have, chances are you will get their iteratively over a long time and not really see what you have made as "an invention".

Ideation isn't some spark that hits you, ideas need to be thought about and created with effort.

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#32

Post by kalonis » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:11 AM UTC

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

I can image a lot of obvious things that still could be invented like beaming, real hoverboards, holodecks and so on. Trying to invent any of this may seem preposterous to us as they are seemingly impossible. But these are only as impossible to us now as driving without horses or sailing the seas without sails have seem impossible three hundred years ago.

And neither cars nor steamboats have been invented by single individual. The "reasonably easy to invent things that are actually valuable" mostly have a very complicated history of trials and errors, tinkering and thinking and imagination from many groups and individuals.

Try to create your own lightbuld or try to isolate a mile long cable for the underground transport of electricity. Try to sell any of these to someone who has never heart of them and lacks the infrastracture for using them. In the hindsight these may seem "reasonable easy to invent things that are actually valuable". But seriously, nothing really new has ever been easy.

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#33

Post by adrianN » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:21 AM UTC

peterburkimsher wrote: post #13

danieltillett wrote: post #12

Nothing much (in percentage terms) got invented until the industrial revolution. The question is why the industrial revolution took so long. If you are interested in this topic I highly recommend A Farewell to Alms [0] - warning controversial hypothesis, but it raises lots of interesting topics to think about. 0. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_Alms

What have the Romans ever done for us? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-fRo5-p9hE http://peterburk.github.io/pliny/ChaptersHtml/0/1.%20PlinyPe...

There is a lot of discussion online why the Romans didn't have an industrial revolution. One argument I heard was that they relied too much on slave labor and improvements in productivity weren't really sought after. See for example here

https://medium.com/@MarkKoyama/could-rome-have-had-an-indust...

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#34

Post by tkoski-hs » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:24 AM UTC

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

IMHO this is the point 4. the author is pointing out:

"Posing the question is a large part of the work. If you have never seen rope, it actually doesn’t occur to you that rope would come in handy, or to ask yourself how to make some."

Sorry @quadrangle, I would go towards an opposite opinion than yours :) I have never in my life been in such a time when inventing would be as easy as now: It's so easy to communicate through internet to find people and skills to fill the ones I'm missing. From crazy idea to proof of concept is pretty straight forward.

For example if you have invented something including electronics:

You have no knowledge of it? PCB (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) knowledge -> buy some from freelance.net. Basic component drawing with pen and paper is OK to ask a quota for. And when you want to build the PCBs -> alibaba.

And proof of concepts can be built even with more simple parts, such as Arduino, piece of metal can, etc.

(Edited some typos and bad English.)

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#35

Post by coldtea » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:24 AM UTC

simonbarker87 wrote: post #31

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

This is not the case, the famous (if apocryphal) quote of "everything that can be invented has been invented" made in 1900 by the head of the US patent office was clearly wrong and made either in jest or due to an enormous lack of imagination. The point is that there is always more to invent and the possibilities keep increasing. There are plenty of inventions yet to make, from complex AI enabled devices down to the…

>This is not the case, the famous (if apocryphal) quote of "everything that can be invented has been invented" made in 1900 by the head of the US patent office was clearly wrong and made either in jest or due to an enormous lack of imagination. The point is that there is always more to invent and the possibilities keep increasing.

Just because somebody said something that was wrong 100 years ago, doesn't mean it's also wrong now.

And there is such a thing as "low hanging fruit".

We have absolutely no contract with the universe or nature that guarantees us that there's "always more to invent", even less so that "the possibilities keep increasing".

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#36

Post by coldtea » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:26 AM UTC

kalonis wrote: post #32

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

I can image a lot of obvious things that still could be invented like beaming, real hoverboards, holodecks and so on. Trying to invent any of this may seem preposterous to us as they are seemingly impossible. But these are only as impossible to us now as driving without horses or sailing the seas without sails have seem impossible three hundred years ago. And neither cars nor steamboats have been invented by single i…

>But these are only as impossible to us now as driving without horses or sailing the seas without sails have seem impossible three hundred years ago.

That's not necessarily the case. Some things can be legitimately, laws of physics-style, impossible.

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#37

Post by agumonkey » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:28 AM UTC

Hindsight gave us so much metaknowledge. It's true that if i never saw a rope i might lose faith quickly if trying to craft the idea from scratch.

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#38

Post by sametmax » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:39 AM UTC

PeterStuer wrote: post #26

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

Wish we could be happy, and not destroy the planet and the future crawling over each other in an ever increasing red queen race on the slippery side of a cliff of despair. We have only allowed a very narrow band of 'solutions' to be explored: those that involve 'doing-making-selling-competing. We have had very minor controls on this process, and even the little we have on that side is constantly besieged or selective…

> For example, any solution to a problem that involves abstinence

There is a famous french comedian who said "when you think about it, the only thing needed for this not to be sold... is that nobody buys it".

That pretty much sums up the solution to most problems of the human race. You know that killing thing ? What if we stopped doing it ? You know that unhealthy habit ? That immoral product ? Etc.

Disciplining yourself to not eat too much chocolate is hard enough. So collectively asking all humans to agree on one particular point of discipline....

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#39

Post by adrianN » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:40 AM UTC

rebuilder wrote: post #22

The poverty trap explanation here makes a lot of sense to me, although maybe it needs a bit of expansion. In a subsistence farming environment it seems true that people did not have much time or resources to devote to making inventions. However, from what I've read of hunter-gatherer tribes still around today, the people living in them actually seem to have quite a bit of free time, yet obviously technological innova…

(I'm no farmer but) From what I hear, farming is characterized by periods of very hard work followed by long winters that you spend mending tools and clothes. I think a farmer could have had enough free time to invent, say, a plough.

Re: Why things might have taken so long

#40

Post by sametmax » Thu, Jan 04, 2018, 9:40 AM UTC

tkoski-hs wrote: post #34

quadrangle wrote: post #17

About not having invented anything: it's harder to invent something novel today simply because so much has already been invented and knowledge of it is available. Centuries ago, it was easier to think of things to invent (we should be able to fly, to stay under water longer, to copy books faster, to notate music… ). It still took a lot of work to actually realize the invention (which only could be done by people weal…

IMHO this is the point 4. the author is pointing out: "Posing the question is a large part of the work. If you have never seen rope, it actually doesn’t occur to you that rope would come in handy, or to ask yourself how to make some." Sorry @quadrangle, I would go towards an opposite opinion than yours :) I have never in my life been in such a time when inventing would be as easy as now: It's so easy to communicate t…

That's not inventing. That's innovating.

It's very, very different.