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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

31–40 of 355 posts

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#31
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that for airlines that want to differentiate on comfort/quality, the A380 is a must-have: You can pimp up the interior of a 787 as much as you want, it will never be as comfortable as what you can do with an A380 (see my other comment on the Emirates A380). However this segment probably isn't big enough to justify such an expensive production line... @frik - for some reason you are "dead" - no-one can see you…

But the segment has an outsized impact on revenue. Say a business class ticket for a transatlantic flight is 5x an economy and a first class ticket is 10x an economy. And the plane, of course, is largely fixed costs.

The business seats on a plane make more money than the economy seats. However, there aren't lines where you can fill a whole plane of business: economy is there mostly to fill up space

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#32
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Closing A380 isn't going to happen for years considering the backlog they have The article mentions: "96 unfilled orders -- But based on airlines’ intentions or finances, 47 of those are unlikely to be delivered, which halves the number of jets in play." So the actual backlog stands at 96 - 47 = 49 planes. This page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A380_orders_and... - shows that they've been deliver…

The article says that for this year they would produce 6 or 7 planes, so, the backlog would last much longer...

49 / 7 = 7 years (a gap of 3 years until they can commit for a decade)

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#33
I think coverage of the A380 often misses the point that at the time, Boeing's 747 simply had no competition, whereas all of Airbus's planes did. So Airbus pretty much had to create the A380 in order to protect its other lines from cross-subsidy by this unopposed cash-cow.

And, also missing from almost all the coverage is the fact that this worked: if the A380 is struggling, the 747 is moribund or dead. Official backlog for the A380 is ~100 planes (actual may be less), the 747's is 21. "the 747 line could be closed in the third quarter of 2019".

And I don't quite get how Boeing somehow played this better, it's not exactly that they decided not to develop a jumbo, they just already had one, whereas Airbus had a bunch of mid-size twins (in fact, the company created and was founded on the mid-size wide-body twin, the A300).

Now you can argue that both planes "were"/might be killed by the shift to smaller twins (and the shift in regulations allowing much longer ocean crossings with just two engines, heck, I recently read that they are now doing the Atlantic in 737s!), but I don't think this is necessarily so, at least not by itself.

Boeing might have been right that there wasn't space in the market for two such planes, but that's a comfortable position if you have the monopoly in this, the high-end segment of the market.

I also am not convinced that the reason given for the A380, constrained slots at major airports serving the major routes, is entirely invalid. With air travel growing the way it does, this problem is not going away, and the shift to more point to point routes may only have been a temporary reprieve.

As an example, Lufthansa recently used jumbo jets on the domestic Frankfurt / Berlin route after their competitor Air Berlin went belly up.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#34
post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

I don't think they're scrambling. The A350 is their 787 competitor and looks amazing. Can't wait to try it out.

Um, there’s 5 787s flying around for every A350. On the future book Boeing also has around 50% more 787 orders than Airbus has A350.

So yeah, I’d call that being a bit behind in that market segment.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#35
post #2

I fly Emirates A380 from time to time, I have to say the business class is better than the first class of most carriers. Very quiet, masses of space, and the bar is not bad at all when you want to stretch your legs. And when you get bumped up to first... having a shower on a flight is very nice :) The only problem is the godawful stopover in Dubai - If there is one advantage that the non-gulf carriers have, it's that…

This makes sense about the stopover, but is why these airlines have gained a lot of traction with travelers from the Americas to Asia. Particularly from the eastern part of the Americas to non-eastern Asia, an approximately 10-15h flight followed by a 0-8h is relatively nice for getting sleep. However, I am definitely not a fan of the DXB terminal that Emirates flies into with its dim lighting and incredibly high number of very expensive shops. A high-end mall is not what I am looking for after hours of sitting on a plane.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#36
post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

> The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling to catch up with Boeing in both sales and design

I agree with your first paragraph, but not at all sure about this. Current air transportation is very stratified, but some of its numerous rules could get a major rework in the next N years (N >= 10). Current setup has mid-size sweetspot when optimized on existing rules on routes, airport slots, weather requirements and in general ATC that is over 30 years old.

Even if only parts of the plans get accepted they can change optimizations significantly, e.g. if and when Nextgen allows planes fly directly from A to B (instead of along a few pre-defined segments) it might push sweetspot from mostly mid-size to a bimodal distribution: smaller for small airports, larger between main hubs. Or some other way.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#37
post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

I don't think they're scrambling. The A350 is their 787 competitor and looks amazing. Can't wait to try it out.

Flew the A350 and 787 a week apart (recently, via Qatar) - the A350 is a surprisingly quiet machine on the inside.

The 787's larger windows (combined with being tall) means I get an almost 360 view around the plane through windows around me over people's heads (until they dim everybody's windows by default * shakes fist * )

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#38
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that for airlines that want to differentiate on comfort/quality, the A380 is a must-have: You can pimp up the interior of a 787 as much as you want, it will never be as comfortable as what you can do with an A380 (see my other comment on the Emirates A380). However this segment probably isn't big enough to justify such an expensive production line... @frik - for some reason you are "dead" - no-one can see you…

But the segment has an outsized impact on revenue. Say a business class ticket for a transatlantic flight is 5x an economy and a first class ticket is 10x an economy. And the plane, of course, is largely fixed costs.

I agree it is a fixed cost, but the initial cost is expensive by itself before we consider the cost for maintenance. Also 5x for economy is really expensive, I highly doubt that many customers would want this 380 experience for 5x of econ. Airbus 380 is ideal for long distance, then 5*800 from NY to Asia would be too damn expensive: then why not first-class on non-380?

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but in order for that to work you need to be able to consistently fill the planes to capacity. That's not as easy as it sounds. There's a limited number of routes where it makes sense, so that means you don't really have an economy of scale opportunity.

Yes, for sure. It makes sense on a few routes in china ATM but as airport infrastructure and high speed rail are built out, airbus is surely in trouble (same reason japan no longer uses any 747s domestically, and Boeing has basically relegated the 747 to a freighter, albeit a very successful one).

Funny thing is that the 747 was originally designed as an airframe that could convert to a freighter. That's why the cockpit is in a bubble above the main cylinder of the fuselage--to get out of the way of the cargo.

Back then, the conventional wisdom was that eventually all passenger travel would be supersonic. Boeing put their best folks on the SST project, and the 747 was a stopgap afterthought.

Turned out that fuel efficiency was way more important than speed.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#40
post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

> The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling to catch up with Boeing in both sales and design. Isn't the A350 already a very good contender there?

Yes but HN always has been a pro-Boeing board.

The A350 has around 850 orders vs. Boeing 1250 orders for their 787.

So "scrambling" is highly subjective and suggestive.

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