Earlier quoted context omitted.
How about when adjusted for volatility?
How do you do that? It seems hard to me to attach hard $ to volatility. If you go with a rebalancing approach like frequently done for lazy portfolios you'd likely benefit from volatility, would you not?
Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
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Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#32“Bitcoin has no underlying rate of return,” said Bogle, 88, who started the first index fund in 1976. “You know bonds have an interest coupon, stocks have earnings and dividends, gold has nothing. There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it.” Didnt quite understand this quote - is he down on gold too?
Yes, Jack Bogle is down on gold too, calling it: "Speculation" with "no intrinsic value."
And to credit Jack Bogle, six years after making that statement, gold is trading lower.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/InvestingAnalysis/bogle-gold...
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#33Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has outperformed every security and portfolio that Jack Bogle has recommended.
We'll see how well Bitcoin does during the next recession. Plenty of investments seem great when the markets and economy are doing well, but turn into disasters when the markets crash.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#34Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has outperformed every security and portfolio that Jack Bogle has recommended.
Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has outperformed every security and portfolio that Jack Bogle has recommended.
Same deal (give or take a few name and parameter changes) as with the preconditions for every speculative bubble - and crash - since the beginning of time, basically.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#35"There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it.” Genuinely asking, isn't this the plan for many people? How is bitcoin different than other commodities or property in this regard? Would Bogle say the same thing about those investments?
Yes, there's really nothing that gives Bitcoin value beyond new investors being willing to pay more for it than previous investors. Most people don't transact using it and the network is far too slow to support that use case anyway. It is a "store of value" that loses or gains half its value every few months. The community is torn with 3 separate forks & some of the earliest Bitcoiners have gone all in on Bitcoin Cash. The majority of the hashing power is controlled by a few entities and is a far cry from the decentralization originally envisioned. The communities online no longer talk about Bitcoin as a useful tool. They just talk about getting rich off of it. coinmarketcap.com, a site only for checking the price of cryptocurrencies, is a top 500 site globally according to Alexa, meaning there are a lot of people checking the price of bitcoin, few people using it for anything.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#36The common sense for the wealthy investor should have been to invest 1% of his portfolio into bitcoin and other digital currencies. If he did that two years ago he'd get x15-30 returns, making Digital currencies over 10% of his portfolio. That would be the time to "cash out" or "scale out" the original investment back into traditional channels. Is it late now? I think wait a bit and then start DCA that portion of you…
Digital currencies are something would have been great to invest in, in retrospect; but if you're in them now, continuously take profits, to make sure you come out ahead when normality kicks in.
There's no Bitcoin-only economy that requires you to use Bitcoin to operate in it, like currencies. There's too many competitor crypto-currencies, and the bar for competition is sufficiently low that it's unlikely that Bitcoin will be the long-term winner. That makes it a losing bet; maybe not this decade, but sooner or later.
Also, the slowness of Bitcoin transactions means that when the crash happens, and people start rushing out, they won't be able to get out very quickly. Hopefully people will see it as easy come, easy go.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#37The common sense for the wealthy investor should have been to invest 1% of his portfolio into bitcoin and other digital currencies. If he did that two years ago he'd get x15-30 returns, making Digital currencies over 10% of his portfolio. That would be the time to "cash out" or "scale out" the original investment back into traditional channels. Is it late now? I think wait a bit and then start DCA that portion of you…
Why? Why was this common sense? What other things should people have invested 1% of their portfolio in? Is every thing that has the possibility of increasing in value dramatically worth investing 1% of my portfolio?
It's not a totally crazy idea to set aside a small portion of your portfolio for a bunch of long-shot investments that have huge upside potential (isn't that how seed funding works?). But I think practically speaking it'd be hard to come up with that list of assets in a rigorous way such that you expect some portion of them to succeed. (e.g. all crypto currencies? penny stocks? beanie babies? abstract art? water bottles, bullets, and cigarettes?)
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#38The common sense for the wealthy investor should have been to invest 1% of his portfolio into bitcoin and other digital currencies. If he did that two years ago he'd get x15-30 returns, making Digital currencies over 10% of his portfolio. That would be the time to "cash out" or "scale out" the original investment back into traditional channels. Is it late now? I think wait a bit and then start DCA that portion of you…
Why? Why was this common sense? What other things should people have invested 1% of their portfolio in? Is every thing that has the possibility of increasing in value dramatically worth investing 1% of my portfolio?
Diversification. Preferably your portfolio will have a tech allocation and crypto could be part of it. Certainly there are many things that will appreciate ten folds in a year; and most things that don't.
Had I opted for diversification in my investment, I'd have seen my wealth even triple that now. And this is not in crypto only.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#39“Bitcoin has no underlying rate of return,” said Bogle, 88, who started the first index fund in 1976. “You know bonds have an interest coupon, stocks have earnings and dividends, gold has nothing. There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it.” Didnt quite understand this quote - is he down on gold too?
Gold is certainly the ideal model for something like Bitcoin but in terms of projectable value gold has time on its side. I will happily invest in Bitcoin when its history as a store of value and a medium of exchange is measured in millennia.
Pretty optimistic on your lifespan, I see.
Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
#40Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has outperformed every security and portfolio that Jack Bogle has recommended.
Only on paper, my friend. Let's see all those bitcoin holders try to realize those profits.