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Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

arxiv.org

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Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#31

Post by maaaats »

They claim the market is inefficient. I worked for a company that to some extend fixed that. Can't remember all the details (I worked on a different part), but something like this:

Most big betting companies were customers. They all continuously sent their updated odds to us, and we would broadcast to the other companies. They would react to the change based on certain rules and send new updated odds back to us. This would then converge.

The inefficacy comes from promotions, company X always wanting to have odds .1 better than company Y etc.

Edit: Not sure how it works now, but: https://www.betradar.com/ and https://mts.betradar.com/

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#32

Post by phillc73 »

GigabyteCoin wrote: post #11
ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

I used to use the betfair platform until it they blocked themselves from being viewed in Canada for some strange reason right after they were purchased by ladbrokes I believe it was. Anyways, after playing with them for a few years, I was horrified to learn about their 60% tax on consistent winners that they have dubbed a "premium charge". Found some sort of edge to exploit and reap profits? Betfair doesn't even care…

Betfair merged with Paddy Power, not Ladbrokes.

They probably stopped offering their service in Canada due to unclear licensing and operating regulations for their Exchange product. It has happened in a number of other jurisdictions too. What you need is a good friend or relative in the UK or Ireland, and a VPN.

However there are now other exchange betting options, with at least some degree of liquidity - Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook for example.

Professional punters still have ways of getting on, which circumvent the online restrictions. Once all their accounts have been limited or closed with the online bookmakers, the next step is usually a string of agents across multiple locations, working on commission, and placing bets on the punter's behalf. It's still possible to get on for farely large amounts like this.

If horse racing is your game, Hong Kong is where the money is at. Huge totalliser pools (park-mutual) where the size of an individual's bet is unlikely to move the market very much. Now that there is co-mingling with a number of other pools around the world, one doesn't have to be in HK to bet there.

I've recently started having a proper go at the Daily Fantasy Sport option, now that Draft Kings has opened up in the UK and a few other European locations. Moneyball in Australia is also quite good, albeit much smaller prize pools. However, this weekend they just launched a DFS horse racing product which looks pretty interesting.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#33

Post by watoc »

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts.

The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest.

But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not?

Do they prefer to give these "good" odds to people who are losing money long term?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#34

Post by dogruck »

skizm wrote: post #29

I always thought bookies just kept moving the lines until they were making money at the snap of the ball. Their initial line isn't as important as adjusting the line so that there is equal money on both sides of the line and therefore the bookie is guaranteed money due to the small fee they build into the bets. Their profits don't depend on accurately predicting the game's score, just moving the line strategically as…

Easier said than done.

Suppose your book is balanced, and you have $25,000 on each side. Then a new bet comes in, size $250,000, on one side of your book -- what to do?

Or, more simply, when you set your initial line, what do you do when a known sharp immediately wants action on one side?

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#35

Post by dogruck »

conistonwater wrote: post #23

> A few weeks after we started trading with actual money some bookmakers began to severely limit our accounts, forcing us to stop our betting strategy. Isn't this like literally one of the oldest tricks in the book? I remember reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator , which talks in part about early 1900's bucket shops, and the same stuff was there even then. Similar stuff is also mentioned in market microstructure…

Correct -- the market maker (or casino) is under no obligation to take your action. And, why should they be? The penalty for refusing action is that you take your business elsewhere.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#36

Post by ElevenLathe »

dogruck wrote: post #34
skizm wrote: post #29

I always thought bookies just kept moving the lines until they were making money at the snap of the ball. Their initial line isn't as important as adjusting the line so that there is equal money on both sides of the line and therefore the bookie is guaranteed money due to the small fee they build into the bets. Their profits don't depend on accurately predicting the game's score, just moving the line strategically as…

Easier said than done. Suppose your book is balanced, and you have $25,000 on each side. Then a new bet comes in, size $250,000, on one side of your book -- what to do? Or, more simply, when you set your initial line, what do you do when a known sharp immediately wants action on one side?

You open things up to select sharps earlier than the general public, with limits. They get the benefit of potentially better lines and you get the information benefit of what the pros think the fair price for any bet is, allowing you to adjust the line before allowing bets from the general public. That's how a lot of the offshore sportsbooks handle it, but it may not actually be legal to do so in Vegas. I don't actually know.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#37

Post by dogruck »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #18

I don't see why we cannot have completely distributed betting platform using para-mutual betting strategy that collects and distributes bets and winnings on the basis of publicly reported sports results with no take-out. I prefer para-mutual rather than a house deciding the odds. It is a more free-market approach. It has been used in horse racing, but the takeout has been too large which makes it hard to be profitabl…

Yes -- customers don't like it because it's too hard to win.

Said another way, customers will choose to place bets with market makers, instead of some paramutual operation.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#38

Post by s17n »

watoc wrote: post #33

I don't totally understand why the bookmakers would limit their accounts. The bookmaker wants to balance his book for each game to make sure he makes a profit no matter what the outcome is. To balance their books they might give better odds for an outcome than what a statistical model might suggest. But what difference does it make if the bettor who helps them balance their books is a consistent winner or not? Do the…

Probably the bookmakers are actually OK with the betting activity that is described in the paper, but they have limits on successful accounts as a safety mechanism to prevent themselves from losing too much money in the event that somebody comes up with an unforeseen method of winning lots of money.

Re: Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged

#39

Post by stephengillie »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #8

"Send enquires about this paper to our newly acquired private island in the Bahamas." :-) One of the most depressing things I realized when I learned to count cards, and confer upon myself a small but meaningful advantage in the game of Blackjack, was that the casinos simply ask you to leave if you win too much. That put an upper limit on the rate at which one could win. The folks who figure out slot machines have a…

If the games weren't set for The House to make money, it would be a charity instead of a business.
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