Earlier quoted context omitted.
This same thing happened under a more liberal capitalist government before. That's literally how Chavez got into power. The biggest difference between then and now is the severity of the oil price drop. An exacerbating factor is that the same forces that tried to coup Chavez in 2002 are of course still politically active and, rationally given their interests, using their economic connections to exacerbate the economi…
A quick refresher for my liberal friends, Oil Prices in 2012: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=9530 Food Shortages in Venezuela in 2012 Source from NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/world/americas/venezuela-f...
How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
31–40 of 71 posts
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Markets are necessary for successful diversification - avoiding shortages and economic collapses when key industries suffer downturns. Out of interest, why do you think this is true? (Edit: Why does this comment have a score of -2? What can I do to improve the quality or relevance of my comments? Will the downvoters explain, please?)
There has never been a successful centrally planned economy. Perhaps with the assistance of massive computation and information spread via the Internet it could be conceivable. But without that it seems like every toy model a central planner uses is going to fail miserably.
The why is because it is just too hard for any centralised group to know enough to plan a large economy adequately, for two main reasons (to keep an already long post short):
1. It is too much information for any group to consider and get any significant chunk of it correct.
2. Innovation is the opposite of planning. "Lets try this unproductive waste of time to connect college students and see what happens. Oh, we are worth billions" is not the way anyone would plan an economy, let alone the problem to assign smart people to. Innovation, unfortunately, can't really be planned.
Central planning fails for the same reason scaling in tech is so difficult. When you have one server, a monolith (planned, organised) is great. All the code is in one place, one database, super easy to reason with and manage, no need for cludgey hacks, perfect code etc etc.
But when you beyond that single server, another layer of complexity arises. How do we set up our infrastructure? How do we optimise long running tasks? How do we make sure everyone knows what everyone else is doing? Should we split code into smaller, harder to understand chunks?
Planned economies fail because what the planners are optimising for - as a reductio ad absurdum - is protecting their own skin, and that means avoiding failure much more than encouraging success, especially in innovation, where > 90% of new ideas ultimately fail.
Markets work because failure is a part of the puzzle, and markets optimise for success, not avoiding failure. As VC firms show, a lot of failure can be overcome with a tiny percentage of great successes, and these great success spur on growth.
Markets also succeed because the conditions on a micro-level - i.e. a street - vary wildly. King Street in Newtown Australia - https://www.google.com.au/maps?q=king+street&um=1&ie=UTF-8&s... - is a long, winding, inefficient mess of op-shops, restaurants and weirdness. No one would plan a street like that, but it works. However, the elements that make up King Street - what the actual shops sell - is different to what makes say the Haight-Ashbury in San Francisco sells, or what is available in San Telmo in Argentina, despite all three being similar in what they represent in each city (an area for alternative types). The flipside to these three places is Brasília - the capital of Brazil and a planned disaster.
TL;DR markets optimise for success while accepting failure happens, whereas planned economies optimise to avoid failure above risky practices that may lead to success, and markets allow micro-optimisations, whereas planned economies end up one size-fits-all.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
No standard capitalist regime would be able to do that anyway I'm not entirely sure what you're saying. If you're saying that no pro-capitalist government could have diversified Venezuela's economy, then I completely agree with you. If you're saying that nurturing a market economy in Venezuela would have failed to diversify it's economy, then I have to disagree. Markets tend to diversify on their own as entrepreneurs…
This is unsupported by facts. China has a very tight control on areas that they want to develop or open to outside capital, and their growth has been stunning. On the other hand, undeveloped countries that have open their markets with little oversight have suffered tremendous economic problems, Mexico is a case in point. There is no correlation whatsoever between lax oversight of markets and robust economic growth, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prefecture-level_citie...
Socialism only really works when government butts out, and lets industry self organise, and China is the glowing example.
> There is no correlation whatsoever between lax oversight of markets and robust economic growth, as most people tend to believe.
This is a complete firfy, and is arguing with a complete lack of understanding of what socialism is. "Socialism: a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole."
In other words, we all decide together how to run things. Markets let people decide what they do themselves, e.g. self organising. The evidence self organisation works is vast and comprehensive. The evidence that no one group is smart enough to run an economy is vast as well, and success in managing an economy always rely on a significant portion being free markets.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Theoretically I think it's true because there are far too many variables at play in economies of any decent size for a national government to efficiently organize it. Historically I think it's true because broad central planning has generally led to unstable economies. I think the Nordic states best figured out how to provide widespread social programs funded by taxation of market economies - with national programs w…
> Theoretically I think it's true because there are far too many variables at play in economies of any decent size for a national government to efficiently organize it. This has been a common complaint, though it's not without response. As to what variables need to be taken into account, there's been discussion that not every product made would have to be. Here's a comment by "Keshav"[0] on Cockshott's input-output t…
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#35I thought this paragraph was the most enlightening: Chávez was an innovator in how he spent money, but he did little to improve how Venezuela actually makes money. He paid no attention to diversifying the economy or investing in domestic production outside of the oil sector. The country relies on imports for many of its most basic goods and services, include food and medicine. You could probably put the greatest econ…
> Let a healthy private sector self-organize the production of the economy, and let taxes pay for social programs. The problem occurs when the private sector is so overwhelmed by greed (always) that decides to make social programs part of their market, as can be seen in real time as they try to privatize NHS in the UK.
But those problems are small compared to widespread food, medicine and energy shortages.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Markets are necessary for successful diversification - avoiding shortages and economic collapses when key industries suffer downturns. Out of interest, why do you think this is true? (Edit: Why does this comment have a score of -2? What can I do to improve the quality or relevance of my comments? Will the downvoters explain, please?)
There has never been a successful centrally planned economy. Perhaps with the assistance of massive computation and information spread via the Internet it could be conceivable. But without that it seems like every toy model a central planner uses is going to fail miserably.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
No standard capitalist regime would be able to do that anyway I'm not entirely sure what you're saying. If you're saying that no pro-capitalist government could have diversified Venezuela's economy, then I completely agree with you. If you're saying that nurturing a market economy in Venezuela would have failed to diversify it's economy, then I have to disagree. Markets tend to diversify on their own as entrepreneurs…
This is unsupported by facts. China has a very tight control on areas that they want to develop or open to outside capital, and their growth has been stunning. On the other hand, undeveloped countries that have open their markets with little oversight have suffered tremendous economic problems, Mexico is a case in point. There is no correlation whatsoever between lax oversight of markets and robust economic growth, a…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-08-21/online-ex...
Much of the economic growth happened in special economic zones that were free of much of the state economic control present in the rest of China.
Also, tight control can be consistent with market freedom when it is targeted at controlling violent crime, kidnapping and extortion. This is one area where China has outperformed other developing countries.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Theoretically I think it's true because there are far too many variables at play in economies of any decent size for a national government to efficiently organize it. This has been a common complaint, though it's not without response. As to what variables need to be taken into account, there's been discussion that not every product made would have to be. Here's a comment by "Keshav"[0] on Cockshott's input-output t…
I suppose it's reasonable to suggest that if all of the variables in an economy could be identified and quantified, then it could be fed into central planning software. But that's a very big if. Furthermore, I'd suggest "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" applies here. We already know markets are good at organizing production, we should use them to do that. Any social ills that result because or alongside of markets sh…
Although not broken (if we're talking in terms of commodity production excluding what is necessary to cure social ills) then it could be greatly improved, though I'm not sure how, or rather, I haven't decided on an answer.
At the moment several firms repeat the same research over and over again in order to research new product development in secret to stay competitive; this is clearly an inefficient use of resources, and this is seen by the fact that there are two government-granted monopolies created in order to sustain this system: copyright and patents, which have come under criticism and scrutiny even from libertarian (Rothbard not Proudhon) authors.
There are also problems relating to how volatile the market is, held to the whim of mostly speculators, with the strong ability to throw out scores of workers onto the streets, depriving them of what they need to survive if not for the chrity of the State.
There is also the problem of nurturing genuine science and the advancement of culture which is hard to commodify; even State-sponsored research projects have their funding pulled if they go off track or try to find results the government doesn't like. This applies doubly for companies. Likewise the artist is controlled not by his own will but by the will of the market, having to restrict himself in materials and creativity in such a way to please rather than to advance culture and indviduality.
There are problems relating to the psychological effect of the market economy on its participants, both workers and capitalists both of which must make it their top priority in life to rack up sufficient money to stay afloat in their respective spheres, compounded with the worker's alienation, that he does not see himself in the products he makes beacuse of the excessive direction of the capitalist.
There is the problem of education in which students must become indebted to the State or a loan organisation unless already having enough capital on their parent's side in order to pursue education which in many cases is necessary to land a job, some of whose wages go back to repaying that debt; a student thus finds it is in his interest to optimise for a degree which will land him a job, regardless of his passions and interests - if this does not crush individuality, what does?
Then there is the effect on our human nature, the system which encourages greed at almost any cost in order to rack up capital, forcing our nature to see people as means to an end rather than people in themselves, I will relate this to the idea of commodity fetishism which proposes that rather than seeing the distinctive labour content of commodities, people only see the commodities themselves, focusing on the exchange value rather than the utility. People must search for social connection through commodities while ignoring the massive wastage and environmental damage that their production takes.
Relations between people are swapped by relations between commodities, although we see that capitalism has very greatly increased standards of living, its effect on quality of life is often ignored at the expense of the freedom to buy whatever goods one pleases, this freedom is taken to be the only important element of a society but close investigation reveals that it is a very hollow freedom.
I have avoided talking about sweatshops for they are an unfortunately contentious issue, but I hope that can be included in my analysis.
I probably haven't explained this very well, so here is a short list of books, mostly be Marxist or neo-Marxist authors who, rathear than focusing on Marx's primary mode of attack (exploitation via extraction of surplus value) they look at other elements of capitalist society:
- Guy Debord - Society of the Spectacle (philosophy-economics): https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/debord/society.ht...
- Herbert Marcuse - One Dimensional Man (sociology): https://libcom.org/files/Marcuse,%20H%20-%20One-Dimensional%...
- Erich Fromm - Escape From Freedom (social psychology): https://libcom.org/library/escape-freedom
- Habermas - The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere (sociology-history) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structural_Transformation_...
- Peter Kropotkin - The Conquest of Bread - https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/petr-kropotkin-the-c...
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
No standard capitalist regime would be able to do that anyway I'm not entirely sure what you're saying. If you're saying that no pro-capitalist government could have diversified Venezuela's economy, then I completely agree with you. If you're saying that nurturing a market economy in Venezuela would have failed to diversify it's economy, then I have to disagree. Markets tend to diversify on their own as entrepreneurs…
This is unsupported by facts. China has a very tight control on areas that they want to develop or open to outside capital, and their growth has been stunning. On the other hand, undeveloped countries that have open their markets with little oversight have suffered tremendous economic problems, Mexico is a case in point. There is no correlation whatsoever between lax oversight of markets and robust economic growth, a…
If you want to discuss the merits of a specific regulation, tax or social program, I'm happy to do that, but I haven't addressed any of those things as of yet.
Since China switched to a market economy, a huge chunk of their massive population has escaped poverty. Some of those markets are highly regulated, but they are still markets. Nothing about China's recent growth is incompatible with the views I've expressed in this thread thus far.
Re: How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a collapsing dictatorship
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Let a healthy private sector self-organize the production of the economy, and let taxes pay for social programs. The problem occurs when the private sector is so overwhelmed by greed (always) that decides to make social programs part of their market, as can be seen in real time as they try to privatize NHS in the UK.
This sounds more like a political problem then an economic one. I won't suggest I have any idea how to alleviate the tension between market-forces and the government, and all the profiteers and rent-seekers in between. But those problems are small compared to widespread food, medicine and energy shortages.