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Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

nytimes.com

31–40 of 161 posts

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#31

Whenever I hear of "bubble" I am reminded of this quote - "“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!” So yes it may be a bubble- but the bubble may very last a few months, a few years, or a few decades...who knows?

Agreed. It's too bad there aren't effective mechanisms to go short though, so people who think we're at a peak can back their view with money.

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#32
post #6

I think there is a difference between a cryptocurrency bubble and an ICO bubble, and this article fails to distinguish between the two. You can see Tom Lee, a financial strategist, talk about Bitcoin here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/bitcoin-could-surge-another-... He points out that there are only 300,000 Bitcoin wallets that hold $5,000 or more. In the grand scheme of things that is very small compared to the o…

> if it really does become the money of the future then the prices now are going to look like pennies in five or ten years time.

Yeah, that's literally exactly why it is a bubble. It's a big if, but that's how you rationalize entering the market.

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#33
post #6

I think there is a difference between a cryptocurrency bubble and an ICO bubble, and this article fails to distinguish between the two. You can see Tom Lee, a financial strategist, talk about Bitcoin here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/bitcoin-could-surge-another-... He points out that there are only 300,000 Bitcoin wallets that hold $5,000 or more. In the grand scheme of things that is very small compared to the o…

Noob question... What is the "product" that underlies the value of cryptocurrency that is so much more valuable than what underlies an ICO? What is the value of a machine churning hashes? It seems like the value is underlied by securing a transaction ledger + an arbitrarily difficult math problem. So is the value the security of the ledger?

CryptoAssets (ICO, token, etc) vs CryptoCurrency

CryptoCurrency is the base primitive of the blockchain, that is consumed to store transactions permanently, as well as to reward the block creators. CryptoAssets are usually extra metadata in transactions that updates some state. The USDT token actually runs on the bitcoin blockchain, on an early 2nd layer network called OMNI. ICO takes the cryptoasset further and issues some 2nd layer token and then resell that for the underlying cryptocurrency. Its a magic bean sale, paid with gold coins.

An ICO on ethereum, for example, is simply a database entry that says your address holds some number of tokens in a contract. You do not own them, you are just tagged as having a certain number. Most contracts have a suicide clause. One authorized (we hope... ooops) method call could nuke that value instantly.

With a cryptocurrency, you control the value stored in unspent transactions. With this you own the private key. No external party can remove those funds with that private key.

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#34
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Noob question... What is the "product" that underlies the value of cryptocurrency that is so much more valuable than what underlies an ICO? What is the value of a machine churning hashes? It seems like the value is underlied by securing a transaction ledger + an arbitrarily difficult math problem. So is the value the security of the ledger?

That is a very good question. I didn’t do a good job making an argument for why I think the value of a currency like Bitcoin could be so much higher than an altcoin that did an ICO. In my opinion, Bitcoin has the first mover advantage in this space. It was the first real use of the blockchain, is still the gateway to pretty much every other crypto currency, there is a maximum supply of coins, and is one of the only c…

That's interesting. I have so many follow-up questions but I gotta head out to dinner. Time for just one... if you're saying ICO company coins are worth sand - and the value of Etherium is as a platform for ICO companies. That seems like the definition of a bubble. No?

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#36
post #31

Whenever I hear of "bubble" I am reminded of this quote - "“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!” So yes it may be a bubble- but the bubble may very last a few months, a few years, or a few decades...who knows?

Agreed. It's too bad there aren't effective mechanisms to go short though, so people who think we're at a peak can back their view with money.

What are you talking about? Also every exchange out there will let you short any number of cryptocurrencies.

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#37
post #6

I think there is a difference between a cryptocurrency bubble and an ICO bubble, and this article fails to distinguish between the two. You can see Tom Lee, a financial strategist, talk about Bitcoin here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/bitcoin-could-surge-another-... He points out that there are only 300,000 Bitcoin wallets that hold $5,000 or more. In the grand scheme of things that is very small compared to the o…

Noob question... What is the "product" that underlies the value of cryptocurrency that is so much more valuable than what underlies an ICO? What is the value of a machine churning hashes? It seems like the value is underlied by securing a transaction ledger + an arbitrarily difficult math problem. So is the value the security of the ledger?

The utility is a way to send value ~instantly, ~anonymously, relatively inexpensively, and irrevocably from one side of Earth to the other, without any intermediaries.

That hasn't existed before.

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#38
The current Bitcoin bubble is much tamer than previous ones. There were multiple periods in 2010-2013 where Bitcoin saw 10x gains in 2-3 months. In fact it's so tame that even some large-cap stocks have matched or outperformed Bitcoin recently eg. AMD who is up 6-7x over last 2 years, like Bitcoin.

I don't see the NY Times writing articles about AMD being in a bubble...

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#39
post #32
post #6

I think there is a difference between a cryptocurrency bubble and an ICO bubble, and this article fails to distinguish between the two. You can see Tom Lee, a financial strategist, talk about Bitcoin here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/bitcoin-could-surge-another-... He points out that there are only 300,000 Bitcoin wallets that hold $5,000 or more. In the grand scheme of things that is very small compared to the o…

> if it really does become the money of the future then the prices now are going to look like pennies in five or ten years time. Yeah, that's literally exactly why it is a bubble. It's a big if, but that's how you rationalize entering the market.

I suppose that is true, but if the price does crash back down to $1,000 and then rises up to $6,000 then what does that mean? The bubble burst and the price crashed, but now we are in another bubble?

This article is an interesting read and seems to suggest something like that:

https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-...

Re: Is There a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Just Ask Doge

#40
post #4

> A group of Bay Area programmers this year used an I.C.O. to raise $35 million for their project, an anonymous web browser called Brave As in Brave, the new browser from Brendan Eich (founder of Mozilla, famously invented JavaScript in 10 days)? Hardly a scam... Either the reporter didn't do their research or twisted the facts to fit their story.

The scam was not so much with Brave, but how the BAT token was distributed. There were 184 investors in the BAT ICO -- is this a fair distribution for what is proposed to be the new attention economy? The scam is in the back end of how ICO's are run. Even if the project is legit, doesn't mean the token distribution was legit. $35m in 30 seconds?? More details: https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-podcast-blog/a-look-at-the…

How is that any different from issuing shares privately to VCs? It seems to me the only fundamental difference is with the technology. Things like voting and vesting can be done on a blockchain, so that's not a limitation. There isn't any rule that says a blockchains token distribution has to be "fair". Granted, a more "even" initial distribution makes sense for a currency, but it you're treating crypto tokens as shares in a company, those "rules" need not apply.
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