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North Korea fires missile over Japan

theguardian.com

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Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#31

Post by Aharito »

helthanatos wrote: post #19
astrodust wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will die, but as long as no nuke comes down, I'd consider than a win, for eliminating such a dangerous tyrant.

Of course, coming to terms with China will be an entirely different matter.

1: https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-th...

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#32

Post by astrodust »

KekDemaga wrote: post #29
astrodust wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict. It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who kn…

I suspect that the US has had the capability to disable ICBMs for some time now. (See patriot missile system and iron dome and remember Regan's star wars project and its not a big leap to make) I think it's just a matter that we don't want to let would be nuclear assailants know until they have already committed.

"Mister President, there's been a launch. There's six missiles heading for California and Washington state."

"Not now, I'm busy."

"Put down the phone, Sir. This is isn't a drill."

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#33

Post by astrodust »

Aharito wrote: post #31
helthanatos wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

Even if we just remove the missile sites, and any sort of nuclear ordinance on the first attack, they don't really have nearly as much as they claim capable of hitting Seoul[1], and even then it can only hit the northern 3rd of the city, which is less populated. The city itself has put a lot of work into infrastructure in preparation, enough bunkers and shelters to house 20 million. Yes, it will get hit, people will…

Being shelled so severely that Seoul looks like Pyongyang is not a win here.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#34

Post by treetoppin »

kabdib wrote: post #27

I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war". I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.

Im not privy to the nitty gritty of the Coast Guard's Maritime Safety ans Security Teams (MSSTs) operations, but finding a nuclear weapon on a vessel is fundamentally a needle in a haystack problem. The best way is going to be intel driven - it is just too easy to hide from a physics standpoint.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#35

Post by baklavabook »

jonnathanson wrote: post #14
ajross wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago.

So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#36

Post by baklavabook »

jonnathanson wrote: post #24
astrodust wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…

China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border. Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.

You're giving China too much credit. China is the entire reason why North Korea exists. Everyone knows this.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#37

Post by fao_ »

ajross wrote: post #6
monksy wrote: post #2

This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US) president that we're officially going to war or conflict with North Korea. Unfortunately, in this case, I believe that Bannon is right. (We're screwed in that situation)

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

> they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace.

Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#38

Post by jonnathanson »

baklavabook wrote: post #36
jonnathanson wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border. Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.

You're giving China too much credit. China is the entire reason why North Korea exists. Everyone knows this.

Yes, and North Korea's continued existence is useful to China. If this pet bites the hand the feeds it, China can euthanize it and select a new pet. Plenty of generals ready to take Kim's place and consolidate power over NK with China's assistance.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#39

Post by sundvor »

astrodust wrote: post #23
helthanatos wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict. It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who kn…

I read(1) that only the northern part of Seoul the city is in striking distance of their (somewhat limited in numbers) long range artillery, and that there are lots of shelters e.g. the way the subway system doubles up as being bunkers.

However the civilians part between Seoul and the DMZ, home to millions, is not going to fare exceedingly well - if the North decides to "waste" their ammo on civilians instead of the military that will be hitting them back.

1) https://www.quora.com/Can-North-Korean-artillery-really-kill...

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#40

Post by branchless »

First thing on the BBC article:

> No effort was made by the Japanese to shoot down the missile, which was launched early in the morning local time, triggering safety warnings.

Isn't that odd? Why mention this up front? Why not shoot this down given the warnings to the public indicated it was serious and a threat to life?

What tech do Japan use to shoot these down? Is it the same as the Yanks? What happens the moment they try to shoot one down and it sails right by?

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