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Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

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Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#31

Post by [deleted] »

FireBeyond wrote: post #26
jacquesm wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US Those cars are not even in the same class, of course Tesla would outsell them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche. Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan ->…

Not sure why you're downvoted, you're right. Tesla S starts at $57K. - Mercedes S starts at $97K - Panamera starts at $86K - 6/7 series start at $81K/$83K. You're right, you're looking at mid-range Audis and the like. But having been in a 2016 S and several Audis the interior quality is hugely different. The Audi feels great, and the S felt like my eight year old Altima. I don't want to sound like a hater - the Tesla…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#32

Post by giobox »

FireBeyond wrote: post #26
jacquesm wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US Those cars are not even in the same class, of course Tesla would outsell them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche. Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan ->…

Not sure why you're downvoted, you're right. Tesla S starts at $57K. - Mercedes S starts at $97K - Panamera starts at $86K - 6/7 series start at $81K/$83K. You're right, you're looking at mid-range Audis and the like. But having been in a 2016 S and several Audis the interior quality is hugely different. The Audi feels great, and the S felt like my eight year old Altima. I don't want to sound like a hater - the Tesla…

It depends which Model S you buy though.

It's possible to spec one well north of 100k (isn't a P100D around 140ish?), at which point comparisons to S-classes and 7 series and so on surely must cross the minds of some buyers. I completely agree regarding cabin quality though.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#33

Post by Robotbeat »

giobox wrote: post #18
Robotbeat wrote: post #8

20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018, something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be done. So two things: 1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence. 2) If you're a competitor, now is not…

I've always wondered to what extent "traditional" luxury car makers have one hand tied behind their backs competing with Tesla in the electric market thanks to still having to support "legacy" technology like the internal combustion engine. The major German marques often seem to be investing in shared platforms for next generation models that support combustion and electric drive options, but it strikes me that a pla…

Yes, a whole bunch of sunk costs.

The internal combustion engine is fantastically cheap for what it entails. It's as complicated as a bloody rocket engine, but an entire vehicle can be bought for a few months California rent. It took literally trillions to engineer it to what we have today. Companies don't want to abandon that investment.

And yet... That's what they'll have to do. The electric car will be so much cheaper to make (and is so much cheaper to operate and maintain) due to its fundamental simplicity that as soon as battery costs get lower, nearly everyone will be forced to transition to electric.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#34

Post by nardi »

jacquesm wrote: post #15
Robotbeat wrote: post #8

20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018, something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be done. So two things: 1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence. 2) If you're a competitor, now is not…

> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series combined in the US Those cars are not even in the same class, of course Tesla would outsell them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche. Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan ->…

Seems much closer in price to your parent's list than your list, though the reality is it's somewhere in the middle:

    3 Series - $33,450 (-34,550)
    C Class - $39,500 (-28,500)
    5 Series - $51,200 (-16,800)
    Model S - $68,000
    6 Series - $77,600 (+9,600)
    Porsche Panamera - $78,100 (+10,100)
    7 Series - $81,500 (+13,500)
    S Class - $96,600 (+28,600)
Edit: With the US federal tax credit of $7,500, it comes down closer to the bottom list, but still in the middle.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#35

Post by Jakob »

jacquesm wrote: post #16
Roritharr wrote: post #13

I really wonder how the top-speed is on those cars in their various configurations. For me this is the deal breaker on all other "affordable" solutions thus far.

I don't think any car I've ever owned has spent more than a minute or two at its top rated speed. Even acceleration is only important up to a minimum to get along in traffic. Even in Germany where cars are allowed to go pretty quick in some areas hardly any of them go at or near their rated top speed.

This is a little different for electric cars, though. Have a look at their current top speeds: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currentl...

Many max out at only ~130 km/h (~80 mph), most don’t reach 150 km/h (90 mph).

The models described in the wiki table are also the maximum power versions of those cars. There are lower versions which don’t even get to this velocity.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#36

Post by toomuchtodo »

martincmartin wrote: post #19

The U.S. $7500 tax credit for buying electric cars is cut in half two quarters after a manufacturer hits 200,000 units. Two quarters later it is cut to 25 percent, and at the start of the sixth quarter after the limit is reached, the credit disappears completely. I wonder if enough people know about this to produce pressure to buy Model 3's quickly? https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how-does-the-electric-ca...

Tesla is planning deliveries to maximize the amount of owners who can receive a credit.

Estimated phase out schedule: http://i.imgur.com/D3AoD18.png

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#37

Post by mikeash »

Robotbeat wrote: post #8

20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018, something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be done. So two things: 1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence. 2) If you're a competitor, now is not…

Note that Tesla's goal isn't 500,000 cars in 2018, but rather a production rate of 500,000/year by the end of 2018. In other words, they're aiming for ~10,000 cars in the last week of December, and probably less before that.

This is easier than actually producing 500,000 cars in 2018, of course, so that just makes it all the more likely they'll get there. Will be really interesting to see how they fare in the next two years or so.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#38

Post by mikeash »

martincmartin wrote: post #19

The U.S. $7500 tax credit for buying electric cars is cut in half two quarters after a manufacturer hits 200,000 units. Two quarters later it is cut to 25 percent, and at the start of the sixth quarter after the limit is reached, the credit disappears completely. I wonder if enough people know about this to produce pressure to buy Model 3's quickly? https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how-does-the-electric-ca...

There's definitely a ton of discussion about the credit in the Tesla fan community, with reservation holders speculating and worrying about whether they'll be able to obtain the full credit.

I don't think buying pressure matters too much at this point, though. It'll be a while before they can build enough for buyers to be the limiting factor. The tax credit will probably start phasing out while they're still production-limited.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#39

Post by Robotbeat »

mikeash wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #8

20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018, something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be done. So two things: 1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence. 2) If you're a competitor, now is not…

Note that Tesla's goal isn't 500,000 cars in 2018, but rather a production rate of 500,000/year by the end of 2018. In other words, they're aiming for ~10,000 cars in the last week of December, and probably less before that. This is easier than actually producing 500,000 cars in 2018, of course, so that just makes it all the more likely they'll get there. Will be really interesting to see how they fare in the next tw…

Assuming they meet 20,000/month in December 2017 as Musk says and ~40,000/month in December 2018 as you say, then linearly extrapolating between the two would still get you about 350-400k per year. Same order of magnitude.

Re: Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday

#40

Post by mikeash »

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #12
ramshanker wrote: post #10

I just wonder, how much bandwidth these cars send home (Tesla HQ) as learning data.

I am actually super intrigued to see how the launch of the Model 3 affects this practice from a legal standpoint. Currently, Tesla's high priced cars are fairly niche, and a lot of their practices fall under people's radar. Issues like right to repair, the active tracking of every car, etc. are pretty concerning from an ownership standpoint. With buyers who may be less apt to replace their car every couple years, and…

I'm pretty sure you can pop the SIM card out if you really don't want your data going back to the mothership.

Right to repair is an interesting angle. They've made noises about opening things up to help with the influx of cars that the Model 3 will bring. Let's hope they follow through.

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