Live data from Hacker News

Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

continuations.com

31–40 of 91 posts

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#31
post #2

Does anyone think that when the crypto bubble bursts, that will cause a stock market level crash?

I have had multiple affluent friends who are absolutely non-tech non-geek ask me what are the hot coins. They're shoveling tens of thousands of dollars into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple based entirely on the fact that there's a run up happening. They have no understanding of what it is and the intention is sell to the greater fool after another 10x move. Maybe it isn't a bubble, but it sure does walk like a duck and…

are these guy all gonna sell at 10k? I'm not rich and love the idea of BTC, but the gambler in me is looking to 10k - mainly b/c I think thats what the ppl with real money on the table are looking to

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#32
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/biz/ has been great for me, I bought some MOONCOINS at 1 satoshi and I will sell next week at 5 sat at least once the current sell walls have been broken. There also is a very active community behind MOONCOIN. Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? Can you expand on your idea?

> Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? I'm skeptical of the idea that Bitcoins have value in the way commodities and other things which can be traded and exchanged have value. People might find some use for blockchain technology, but the speculation around the value of Bitcoins is ridiculous. It's a bubble like any other bubble. The notion that a Bitcoin can remain at a $2000 value is absurd. The current…

I agree with your skeptical sentiment, for the most part.

However, dismissing Bitcoin as a bad commodity (because it cannot be used for anything) misses the mark. Instead, look at Bitcoin not as a commodity, but as money. Money (particularly paper money) has no intrinsic worth. What makes it valuable are its properties, and functions bestowed on it by consensus: counterfeiting resistance, fungibility, medium of exchange for payments, storage of value, unit of account.

Can Bitcoin fulfil those functions? That remains to be seen, and I'm skeptical on storage of value (too volatile) and unit of account (too volatile, nothing is denominated in it), but it works to an extent as a payment mechanism (though worse and worse now, with the increasing transaction fees).

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#33
post #17

The difference is the dot-com stocks had some theoretical value - even Pets.com, people buy pet supplies online after all. Unlike commodities, equities and so forth, cryptocoins have no value whatsoever. So to try to make it sound like it has worth, its pushers have to cast about for anything they can and finally come upon the only thing they can - the dollar. In fact, they say, it's even better than the dollar. It w…

I'm pretty high on crypto; my full-time job is writing and auditing smart contracts on Ethereum. Which message board do you recommend for me?

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#34
I will make a prediction so I can come back and make fun of myself in a month. It is a bubble and it will pop real soon going down back to $500 bringing down all the alts with it, then it will slowly go up again at a normal pace for the next couple of years.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#35
post #32
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? I'm skeptical of the idea that Bitcoins have value in the way commodities and other things which can be traded and exchanged have value. People might find some use for blockchain technology, but the speculation around the value of Bitcoins is ridiculous. It's a bubble like any other bubble. The notion that a Bitcoin can remain at a $2000 value is absurd. The current…

I agree with your skeptical sentiment, for the most part. However, dismissing Bitcoin as a bad commodity (because it cannot be used for anything) misses the mark. Instead, look at Bitcoin not as a commodity, but as money. Money (particularly paper money) has no intrinsic worth. What makes it valuable are its properties, and functions bestowed on it by consensus: counterfeiting resistance, fungibility, medium of excha…

If we look at the past 10,000 years of history - commodities are useful things, objects with utility. Currencies are commodities which people begin to favor for use in trading. Currencies are commodities which have properties that make them good currencies - they have properties such as uniformity, durability, divisibility, portability. This is why precious metals like gold have been favored as currencies through history - gold is uniform, durable, divisible and portable.

The paper dollar bill is, and always has been, completely worthless in and of itself. It is just a piece of paper. Just like Confederate bills were and are pieces of paper, just like the Papiermark was and is a piece of paper. US bills have a history, just as German bills do.

In 1914, the German Mark, or "Goldmark" was redeemable for gold. The Mark/gold link was broken in 1914 and the Mark became the "Papiermark". By 1923, hyperinflation had made the Papiermark near worthless and it was replaced by the Rentenmark and then in the next year this was replaced by the Reichsmark.

Swinging back to the USA, the words "redeemable in gold" were removed from the hundred dollar bill in 1934, and then by 1971 Nixon had closed the gold window entirely. Sort of. Because if he really had, he could have just taken the thousands of tons of gold in Fort Knox and paid down the US debt. But he couldn't. Because that gold still backs the dollar. The dollar was an abstraction of gold before 1934 and 1971, a promise. Then it became an abstraction of the abstraction. It's still on some level backed by the gold in Fort Knox, Trump and the Fed chair could just reopen gold/dollar reconversion if need be, and a hard floor would suddenly appear under the dollar.

Bitcoin has no such floor. There are no thousands of tons of gold waiting in the wings for Bitcoin, no nuclear armed #1 (going on #2) world economy with the power to tax and receive tax payments backing it. We don't even know who created Bitcoin.

It's an odd argument - the only commodity people can find which has no apparent value is the dollar (or euro), so that's what people compare it to.

If this was 1917, you might be asking me why the Papiermark had worth when it was not backed by something, and thus Bitcoins must have value. What people found out was that the Papiermark unhooked from gold did not have value, as the German government of the time didn't give a damn about its value. It's kind of the same argument - Papiermarks in 1917 had value, so Bitcoins must have value. People found out in the 1920s that Papiermarks didn't have value as the implicit promise of government gold conversion went away.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#36
post #13
post #2

Does anyone think that when the crypto bubble bursts, that will cause a stock market level crash?

It's entirely possible it might be the catalyst for a large unwinding. Let me just set up a hypothetical scenario: Bitcoin prices begin to unwind (trigger: emotion? unknown unknown?). Chinese holders of bitcoin, who have been using them to get out of the yuan and avoiding capital regulations, start selling, accelerating the problem. Chinese WMPs (wealth management products) that may hold bitcoin start to default or g…

I'd say the causality is more likely to go in the opposite direction. A slowdown in China provokes a slowdown in capital flight via crypto which triggers the crash. It might actually be the canary in the coal mine of a global recession. Barring significant positive reform in Chinese capital markets as an alternative explanation, I am going to start getting scared when I see a crash in the Vancouver, BC real estate market coinciding with a crypto crash.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#37
post #17

The difference is the dot-com stocks had some theoretical value - even Pets.com, people buy pet supplies online after all. Unlike commodities, equities and so forth, cryptocoins have no value whatsoever. So to try to make it sound like it has worth, its pushers have to cast about for anything they can and finally come upon the only thing they can - the dollar. In fact, they say, it's even better than the dollar. It w…

Bitcoins are saving this Venezuelan guy's family from starving. I'm pretty sure that qualifies as value: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6d2w1b/bitcoin_is_... This is not to say that there isn't an absurd amount of hype and froth right now, but if nothing else cryptocurrencies will continue to serve a purpose for anybody who needs to send money outside capital controls.

If you read the thread you find out that the Venezuelan guy lives in the US has never done what he described and knows no one who has used it as he described.

He gets called out by someone in Venezuela here https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6d2w1b/bitcoin_is_...

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#38
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/biz/ has been great for me, I bought some MOONCOINS at 1 satoshi and I will sell next week at 5 sat at least once the current sell walls have been broken. There also is a very active community behind MOONCOIN. Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? Can you expand on your idea?

> Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? I'm skeptical of the idea that Bitcoins have value in the way commodities and other things which can be traded and exchanged have value. People might find some use for blockchain technology, but the speculation around the value of Bitcoins is ridiculous. It's a bubble like any other bubble. The notion that a Bitcoin can remain at a $2000 value is absurd. The current…

I think you're right mostly but missing a key point. Crypto's value is inversely proportional to faith in government backed currencies in places with high internet penetration. So in the US, it's actual value is quite low because we have an extremely strong currency and well developed payment systems. In China, faith in the government-backed currency (renminbi) and the investment options available in that denomination are relatively low. Coupled with reasonably high access to internet connections and government restrictions on expatriating capital, crypto becomes a valuable alternative denomination.

Crypto has no inherent value except as a policy failure. At least so far. I have yet to see a large scale proof, but potentially at least block chain tech has value for reducing transaction costs in shipping or other fields.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#39
post #38
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why are you so dismissive of this new technology? I'm skeptical of the idea that Bitcoins have value in the way commodities and other things which can be traded and exchanged have value. People might find some use for blockchain technology, but the speculation around the value of Bitcoins is ridiculous. It's a bubble like any other bubble. The notion that a Bitcoin can remain at a $2000 value is absurd. The current…

I think you're right mostly but missing a key point. Crypto's value is inversely proportional to faith in government backed currencies in places with high internet penetration. So in the US, it's actual value is quite low because we have an extremely strong currency and well developed payment systems. In China, faith in the government-backed currency (renminbi) and the investment options available in that denominatio…

> China...government restrictions on expatriating capital, crypto becomes a valuable alternative denomination

Money is expatriated via Bitcoin from the PRC to, say, Vancouver. The point is that with a currency, people would be comfortable leaving it as Canadian dollars or US dollars. This is not what happens though, the Bitcoin is converted to Canadian dollars, and is then perhaps converted into other things, such as real estate.

It is more like a concert ticket or gallon of milk in this case - something which might be valuable for a time, but then loses its value. The Papiermark in the early 20s could be used to move money around as well.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#40
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, but the crypto currency community looks like a pyramid scheme. First users gets most of the coins.

Do you have any idea what is going on here or are you ignoring away in bliss? This is as much a pyramid scheme as VC industry is in that early investors make disproportionate gains (and losses). Finding the right tokens to invest in is the challenge.

Well I will gladly change my mind anytime someone can provide a convincing argument against the "bitcoin pyramid scheme" that is nor an ad-hominem attack, neither a cryptic response like "value come from scarcity induced by the growing complexity of the arbitrary mathematical problem solving that require big amount of current tech silicium mostly running in a non-democratic country who don't care about power efficiency...(goes on with technical gibberish)"

My theory is that if MasterCard roll-out a "masterbyte" crypto-currency that can automagically convert to real cash usable in all MasterCard enabled retails, bitcoin will loose all value almost overnight. Prove me wrong using strong arguments and I'll change my mind.

PS: needless to say, downvoting me don't count as an argument. It just keep me thinking that you are in lack of a better one.

Post reply on HN