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Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

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Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#31

Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. They've not demonstrated they can establish a real business here in what has turned into a pure commodity market. In competitive markets a lot of "me too" competitors pop up all the time. When you see consumers just picking the one that's the cheapest (i.e. with the most VC cash subsidizing the ride) and drivers rocking up…

> Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. I think the consensus is that rides are subsidised by around twenty cents on the dollar. Ubers bet is autonomous cars. They pay a 75% fee to the driver. When autonomous fleets launch in the next few years they'll normalise prices at around 50%, meaning your $10 ride costs you $5, and each ride has wafer thin profitability…

> Ubers bet is autonomous cars.

Autonomous cars being generally available lowers the barrier to entry for competitors to Uber, and makes their position worse, not better. Uber's bet is Uber controlling the autonomous car market, which is a different and much harder thing.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#32

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

> Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this.

It's almost a standard by now: lose on every sale, make it up in volume.

Joseph Heller had that one first I think.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#33
post #6

“We’re fortunate to have a healthy and growing business" $2.8bn "adjusted net loss" on $6.5bn revenue is healthy?

The naivety on HN is staggering sometimes.

Imagine your parents give you a $10 loan to start a lemonade stand. You think you need six years to make them an above market return on their investment of 2x.

You're gonna buy cups, lemons, sugar, and water.

In the first year you think you're going to spend $3 and make $0.

So you have $7 in the bank.

In the second year you think you're gonna spend $2, and make $1.

So you have $6 in the bank.

In the third year you think you're gonna spend $6, and make $4.

So you have $4 in the bank.

In the fourth year you think you're gonna spend $6, and make $6.

So you still have $4 in the bank.

In the fifth year you think you're gonna spend $6 and make $10.

And now you're profitable. In the sixth year you spend $6 and make $50. You pay back 2x your parents' money.

As long as you were hitting your targets, that loan looks like smart business from you and your parents are pleased that their investment outperformed the market and generated a huge return.

If you had trouble hitting your targets, or needed to raise more money unexpectedly, your parents might have said that they'd want a higher return or more security (equity) in the business. But if you're executing on your plan, then that's not gonna happen.

Businesses operate with debt all the time. Some businesses are lossmaking for a long time. Some businesses are lossmaking on billions of dollars of revenue. They have high central costs. They have high R&D costs. They have marketing strategies which require them to subsidise entry-level products and upsell.

The business is healthy provided the following things are true:

1. They've agreed a strategy and milestones with their investors and board,

2. They are hitting those milestones by executing on that strategy.

3. They aren't running out of money ahead of schedule, or running out of money on specific instruments ahead of schedule (for example they have debt financing with Goldman which I'm assuming is being used to acquire smaller companies or subsidise driver fares since that would be expensive to do out of equity).

4. The investors are prepared to honour their agreement to fund the company and truly believe in the milestones and objectives the board has voted on.

Uber has raised $15 billion to date.

In 2012 it lost $20m, in 2013 $15m, in 2014 it lost around $650m, in 2015 it lost $1.5bn, in 2016 it lost $2.8bn.

The business has burned $5bn give or take, or 33% of its total capital raise to date.

Let's say that the losses are understated and they've actually lost closer to $7bn.

They have ~$8bn in the bank or on credit. They have a team of 6,700 which let's say is 45% engineering, R&D, product and the remainder have a linear relationship to the busyness and scale of the business.

They don't have to think about raising money until the middle or end of next year. They could cut their workforce if they needed to get to profitability quickly for some reason.

You or I might not be comfortable running a business with a $2.8bn loss, but nobody on here bats an eye when a YC company loses a a million dollars on a couple of million of revenue with a few million more in the bank. But as soon as it's a b and not an m, people lose their minds.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#34

hackernews.. the place for uber quarterbacking.

Don't worry, don't lose too much sleep over it.

You forget that Uber was the last one to market with ridesharing. Lyft and Sidecar were out there faster. The reason why Uber is huge is because it was the first company to take all its money and go all-in into growth, by any means necessary. They spent and grew and got more funding until they were global within a few years, unlike most other companies. Their growth strategy is unprecedented and what is the most special about Uber, not the app itself, or even the idea.

You would most likely not have duplicated their growth strategy, and would have gotten steamrolled. At this point, there's no way you could get your foot in the door next to Lyft or Uber, without significant funding.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#35

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

> There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft.

It makes sense, but I'm not sure it works out that way. Many web services have zero lock-in (not including those with a network effect such as Twitter and Facebook) and competitors are a URL away, yet the first ones to gain (mindshare? marketshare?) seem to keep it: Google search, Amazon, etc.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. I think the consensus is that rides are subsidised by around twenty cents on the dollar. Ubers bet is autonomous cars. They pay a 75% fee to the driver. When autonomous fleets launch in the next few years they'll normalise prices at around 50%, meaning your $10 ride costs you $5, and each ride has wafer thin profitability…

> Ubers bet is autonomous cars. Autonomous cars being generally available lowers the barrier to entry for competitors to Uber, and makes their position worse, not better. Uber's bet is Uber controlling the autonomous car market, which is a different and much harder thing.

> Autonomous cars being generally available lowers the barrier to entry for competitors to Uber, and makes their position worse, not better.

Why do you think that's true? Uber is investing heavily in autonomous cars because they want to be very early to the market (hence "Uber's bet is autonomous cars"), and because when you have autonomous cars high utilisation is important, they are in food delivery, and interested in shipping and courier services.

I think you're also overestimating the complexity of recruiting a load of former private hire drivers and underestimating the complexity of developing scaled fleet management solutions for entirely autonomous vehicles.

> Uber's bet is Uber controlling the autonomous car market

I think most reasonable people would be able to impute some sort of first mover or early mover advantage into what I was saying.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#37

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

> There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. It makes sense, but I'm not sure it works out that way. Many web services have zero lock-in (not including those with a network effect such as Twitter and Facebook) and competitors are a URL away, yet the first ones to gain (mindshare? marketshare?) seem to keep it: Google search, Amazon, etc.

Google was the first search engine? Actually, the field was crowded when Google appeared.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. I think the consensus is that rides are subsidised by around twenty cents on the dollar. Ubers bet is autonomous cars. They pay a 75% fee to the driver. When autonomous fleets launch in the next few years they'll normalise prices at around 50%, meaning your $10 ride costs you $5, and each ride has wafer thin profitability…

Autonomous cars are not going arrive for 10 to 15 years. If Uber can't reduce costs by 20% or increase prices by 20% or some combination of the two, then they are making the wrong kind of bet's. Personally, I believe their bet is on not needing a large advertising budget once enough people know about their service.

> Autonomous cars are not going arrive for 10 to 15 years.

Tesla believes its cars are already equipped with the necessary hardware and that the software, including Tesla Network (their announced autonomous Uber competitor), will be going live at the end of 2017.

At this point five years seems like a long time horizon for autonomous cars being on the road.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#39

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

> Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and from work and the drivers are compensated only for gas money.

The Who's Driving app is great for this kind of thing.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#40

hackernews.. the place for uber quarterbacking.

For what it's worth, comments like these here on HN tend to be seen as "sore loser" comments and find their way to the graveyard. Congratulations on your foresight, however I think the chorus you should expect from this audience is "they did it better than you, so get over it."

second post.. why can't I delete the whole tree?
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