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Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

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Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#31
post #13

Eurozone debt-to-GDP: 92%. This is BEFORE one considers (a) member country debt, (b) troubled bank liabilities which EU must backstop (eg. Deutchebank), and (c) immense social, security and defense costs which EU nations must incur due to recent global events. By contrast UK debt-to-GDP: 90% and falling, and a US-UK trade deal is likely very soon. I'd rather own Sterling.

Before the last election the pound was close to $1.65, after the election it started falling and currently the sentiment is we are heading for a hard brexit. I suspect it has found it's new level.

Until that level changes again.

Markets are not and never have been perfectly efficient. This is why traders are able to make money - they use information at their disposal that indicates the market value is incorrect to trade against that value. By definition if the market value was always correct that wouldn't be possible. So there is a feedback mechanism from information to market values, but there are many reasons those mechanisms might not work. There might be other more attractive targets for money that would otherwise be used to take advantage of that information. There might be a lack of liquidity preventing funds being deployed at all. There might be short term risks deterring long term bets on accepted trends.

Imagine if half the currency traders in the world stopped trading. All of a sudden all of those inputs into currency prices would no longer exist. Would currency prices continue being traded in exactly the same way and weeks or months later be at exactly the same value they would have been before? No, because losing all those inputs into the market would reduce the information flow that drives market value. To look at the opposite case, does the world have the ultimate possible expression of the ideal set of perfect currency traders using perfect information? Probably not, so the market value probably isn't what it would be if there were, i.e. the current market prices probably isn't at it's perfect ideal value.

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#34
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these the same financial analysts that said there was going to be an immediate meltdown post-brexit?

We aren't post-brexit yet. That's more than 2 years away.

In the mean time lots of money to be made raising and lowering the price of the pound based on various announcements.

I'm writing a bot that shorts on Donald Trumps tweeting company names...

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#36
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these the same financial analysts that said there was going to be an immediate meltdown post-brexit?

We aren't post-brexit yet. That's more than 2 years away.

I should have been clearer, the analysts said there would be an immediate meltdown in the UK economy after the brexit vote if it was leave.

That forecast was completely wrong, the opposite has happened.

As it's widely been reported in the UK, in both lefty and righty papers, I'm surprised you've failed to see it. It's been mentioned every time we get a positive growth figure, or an unemployment fall, or whatever.

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#37
post #6
post #2

"While critics might note that Apple’s price increase is greater than the pound’s loss in value, financial analysts predict that the market still hasn’t fully priced in the cost of Brexit — that is to say the pound still has further to fall." So what mechanisms keep the price from instantly dropping if "everyone" agrees it should be lower? Market inefficiencies? Or lots of money betting on an upswing?

The market has always priced in all of the information that is available to its participants. The "financial analysts" are talking nonsense basically. If they're so sure it's going to drop further they should short the pound now, as much as they can. That in itself would cause the pound to drop, and then whatever effect they're predicting would be priced in.

No, for several reasons. You might be sure that the value will fall but not know when. There might be short term risks that might make now a sub-optimal time to make that bet. There might be other effects that might mitigate this particular effect - so you might be convinced that Brexit will drive down the pound compared the the value it might otherwise have had, but not know what that price driven by other factors might be. Government intervention might mitigate the effect - George Soros made a fortune betting against the government but many others have lost fortunes the same way. The trading floors eat naive market perfectionists for breakfast.

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#38
post #28
post #3

"This latest round of price changes doesn’t just affect the UK (customers in India and Turkey are also going to see increases).." OK, '25 percent due to Brexit' is going to get more clicks.

Different countries change over time for different reasons, and Apple tends to change them in bulk. Are you arguing that the massive drop in the pound isn't due to Brexit? As far as I'm aware even the most rabid Farage-fanciers don't argue that, but argue it's a good thing (Cheaper exports! As though we don't import most of the raw materials, but that's not as snappy).

I was stating the headline was somewhat sensationalist given the statement from Apple was pretty vague.

Where you get me arguing about the massive drop in the pound I don't know?

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#39
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't post-brexit yet. That's more than 2 years away.

I should have been clearer, the analysts said there would be an immediate meltdown in the UK economy after the brexit vote if it was leave. That forecast was completely wrong, the opposite has happened. As it's widely been reported in the UK, in both lefty and righty papers, I'm surprised you've failed to see it. It's been mentioned every time we get a positive growth figure, or an unemployment fall, or whatever.

Yes, predicting fuzzy emotional reactions to uncertainty is a lot harder than the analyzing the clear, solid legal and economic changes which are to come.

Re: Apple’s UK App Store prices will rise 25% following Brexit currency fluctuations

#40
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't post-brexit yet. That's more than 2 years away.

I should have been clearer, the analysts said there would be an immediate meltdown in the UK economy after the brexit vote if it was leave. That forecast was completely wrong, the opposite has happened. As it's widely been reported in the UK, in both lefty and righty papers, I'm surprised you've failed to see it. It's been mentioned every time we get a positive growth figure, or an unemployment fall, or whatever.

As has been mentioned on this thread before you posted, those analyses were based on the announced policy that article 50 would be triggered immediately. It wasn't. Long term Brexit is absolutely going to be disastrous for the UK economy, unless parliament can get us on to a soft-brexit EEA membership track.

The tragedy is that the British economy was going well through the beginning of 2016 and after a bumpy road immediately after the vote that momentum has held up over the last 6 months. That won't help us if we really do crash out of the EU hard.

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