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I estimate human population to peak in 2065

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Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#31

Post by cobookman »

rublev wrote: post #8
cobookman wrote: post #5

Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink. Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population. Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term.…

>Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink. Which ones are those? The last thing the world needs is even more consumerist culture.

Off the top of my head, China & India.

I'm sure countries in Latin America, Africa and South-East Asia are also seeing an overall increase to their standard of living over the past 30 years.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#32

Post by anton_tarasenko »

A polite reminder: some people predict population dynamics for living.

For example, the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/population-projection...

If you look for dinosaurs, the WB also have a 1984 report on topic: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/496471468156899142... (see p. 186, "Population data supplement")

The UN, IMF, and most national agencies also release their numbers.

In general, world GDP growth — and its correlates, like HDI — is stable enough to predict population growth. As a country gets richer, fertility falls: women get careers, jobs require more education for children, people start to rely on savings, instead of family. The aggregate numbers are smooth and predictable. At least, for a reasonable time horizon.

But you need to fine-tune the model at the right aggregation level. For example, the US, EU, Japan have similar GDP levels, but fertility in the US remains high. Census data helps settle down these issues.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#33

Post by marcosdumay »

baq wrote: post #20
maxerickson wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy will be cheaper in 10 years than it has ever been in history. Progress is pretty likely to continue.

Can the World Get Richer Forever? http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2015/03/bbc-questions-in...

I dunno¹, but solar will probably make energy much cheaper in the coming decades.

1 - Of course, obviously I do know. The answer is just completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#34

Post by philipkglass »

rokosbasilisk wrote: post #28
baq wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can the World Get Richer Forever? http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2015/03/bbc-questions-in...

wow fascinating read. If global resources are finite, it would explain the drive to colonize space.

Global resources are finite. The resources of the solar system are finite. The visible universe is finite.

Finite is not another word for "meager."

Discussions of physical resource limits would be better if pessimistic prognosticators did not write as if finite-is-meager, and if optimistic prognosticators did not write as if plentiful-is-infinite.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#35

Post by tropo »

This assumes uniform gene pools that never change. In other words, it denies evolution.

For each nation, he extrapolates various existing trends. This wouldn't be too bad if people within each nation were uniform. They are not. Given the choice between having children and having other luxury, people do not all make the same decision. The mental traits that influence this decision are inheritable, both genetically (brain structure and chemistry) and culturally (religion and more). It should be obvious that the portion of people who decide to have kids will increase. We'll be back to exponential growth until we hit real resource limits and start dying in squalor.

This is unavoidable. Anything done to stop it will be overcome, because those best at overcoming impediments to reproduction will come to dominate the gene pool.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#36

Post by cortesoft »

fleitz wrote: post #22
earthtolazlo wrote: post #16

Why do almost no population projections take climate change into account? We're rapidly heading towards a much less habitable earth. The projections I've seen with Africa at a population of 3-4 billion people by 2100 would be laughable if the whole situation wasn't so damn tragic.

Because current projections don't reach population levels where we exhaust the capacity of the earth, at best we'd face reduced material wealth. Why the situation tragic? The universe does not care the sea levels or temperatures are different from what they were in 1700, just as the universe does not lament the great oxidation event which wiped out most of the species inhabiting the planet at the time. In fact I'd ar…

Usually when we talk about tragedy, we are talking about a human experience. I am not sure why you are talking about the 'universe'.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#38

Post by rokosbasilisk »

philipkglass wrote: post #34
rokosbasilisk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow fascinating read. If global resources are finite, it would explain the drive to colonize space.

Global resources are finite. The resources of the solar system are finite. The visible universe is finite. Finite is not another word for "meager." Discussions of physical resource limits would be better if pessimistic prognosticators did not write as if finite-is-meager, and if optimistic prognosticators did not write as if plentiful-is-infinite.

finite resources on earth can lead to meagar resources which stop infinite growth is what I took from that paper.

So we'd have to get resources from elsewhere like asteroid mining or space colonization.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#40

Post by Balgair »

anton_tarasenko wrote: post #32

A polite reminder: some people predict population dynamics for living. For example, the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/population-projection... If you look for dinosaurs, the WB also have a 1984 report on topic: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/496471468156899142... (see p. 186, "Population data supplement") The UN, IMF, and most national agencies also release their numbers. In general, w…

Ok, so for everyone that can barely use that terrible website, the number that they have in 2050 is 9.71 billion. Someone else can try to figure out how to download that data and then give an actual estimate as to when the population will flat-line. Maybe find a way to get it into excel and then apply a log fit to it, or soemthing. Hell, I ain't gonna mess with that terrible site again.

Edit: Forgot to thank my parent comment for finding the data in the first place!

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