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Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

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Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#31

Post by gogopuppygogo »

lowglow wrote: post #25
Analemma_ wrote: post #21

HN's algorithm has a sense of humor: this pairs nicely with the other front-page story about the 2014 prediction that Facebook would be dead by 2017.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

Facebook seems to have determined it is a more mature network where kids graduate into it once they are ready for it. Seems like they are making money with this model.

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#32

Post by monkmartinez »

sna1l wrote: post #29
lowglow wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

While true, this is anecdotal data. Are their overall engagement numbers down that much?

The problem is those numbers are easily faked|manipulated.

I agree with OP in the same way that I believe the story about the shoe shine boy and the stock market. It may not happen tomorrow, but facebook is not cool anymore.

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#34

Post by [deleted] »

gogopuppygogo wrote: post #31
lowglow wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

Facebook seems to have determined it is a more mature network where kids graduate into it once they are ready for it. Seems like they are making money with this model.

[deleted]

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#35

Post by hyperbovine »

szul wrote: post #33
Xyik wrote: post #26

i find it hard to believe that it could do worse than Twitter.

Maybe I'm just old, but I never got the appeal. I find it hard to believe Snapchat has more social value than Twitter, but that's just my opinion.

I must be older still -- I can't believe any of it has value.

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#36

Post by saycheese »

monkmartinez wrote: post #32
sna1l wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, this is anecdotal data. Are their overall engagement numbers down that much?

The problem is those numbers are easily faked|manipulated. I agree with OP in the same way that I believe the story about the shoe shine boy and the stock market. It may not happen tomorrow, but facebook is not cool anymore.

Just to be clear, are you saying it is easy to "fake" Facebook's numbers below, and if so, how?

Revenue - 7.01B (up 59% YoY)

Net Income - 1.38B (up 166% YoY)

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#37

Post by bartozone »

lowglow wrote: post #25
Analemma_ wrote: post #21

HN's algorithm has a sense of humor: this pairs nicely with the other front-page story about the 2014 prediction that Facebook would be dead by 2017.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

Also ... Facebook owns Instagram

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#38

Post by omginternets »

polishTar wrote: post #30
lowglow wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

That's anecdotal evidence that isn't at all reflective of reality. Some stats about Facebook for Q3 2016: MAU (monthly active users) - 1.79B (up 16% YoY) DAU (daily active users) - 1.18B (up 17% YoY) Revenue - 7.01B (up 59% YoY) Net Income - 1.38B (up 166% YoY)

You seem to be talking about Facebook the company, whereas the parent comment is talking about the social media platform.

I'm not sure this rebuttal is relevant since the original claim is that the flight of users is a leading indicator of the platform's demise. Facebook owns Instagram, so maybe it's ad revenues are coming from places other than facebook.com?

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#39

Post by ebbv »

saycheese wrote: post #36
monkmartinez wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is those numbers are easily faked|manipulated. I agree with OP in the same way that I believe the story about the shoe shine boy and the stock market. It may not happen tomorrow, but facebook is not cool anymore.

Just to be clear, are you saying it is easy to "fake" Facebook's numbers below, and if so, how? Revenue - 7.01B (up 59% YoY) Net Income - 1.38B (up 166% YoY)

They can choose to count those in various ways. See the stories about Facebook exaggerating video engagement.

Additionally Facebook has gladly allowed obviously fake and spammy accounts on the site for ages.

Note also that nobody is claiming Facebook is a ghost town. Clearly a lot of people still use it. But it's not remotely cool any more. Most people I know who still have accounts think of it as a burden.

Re: Estimated losses would make Snapchat the most unprofitable social media IPO

#40

Post by bkjelden »

lowglow wrote: post #25
Analemma_ wrote: post #21

HN's algorithm has a sense of humor: this pairs nicely with the other front-page story about the 2014 prediction that Facebook would be dead by 2017.

Facebook does feel like it is dying though. 1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.

I don't notice my friends leaving and I feel like it's dying too. The content just feels so manufactured and empty. About 80% of my news feed is:

1) Friend X liked a photo of someone I've never met and likely never will meet

2) A recipe video that I would never make, or some household 'lifehack' I would never use.

3) Meaningless images - 'Happy Friday', 'Share if you hate winter', 'Like if you love Christmas', etc.

Their engagement numbers may still be rising, but it feels like they've favored pushing up that metric at the cost of having actual quality engagements. It's all been hollowed out.

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