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The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

wsj.com

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Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#31

Post by Retra »

geooooooooobox wrote: post #11

Didn't physicists of the old once say they were close to closing in the the grand theory of everything, it was Max Plank or someone who was told by some Physics Prof that Physics as they knew was completely discovered .. point being there will always be a big idea around the corner that will surprise everybody

Just because there were big ideas around the corner that nobody predicted doesn't mean there are big ideas around the corner right now.

I certainly believe there are, but what you've said here is not a good reason to believe that.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#33

Post by moxious »

Kaibeezy wrote: post #25

well covered in The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Paul Krugman reviews it here - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-th... bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - electrics, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, telecom - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no com…

Given that we don't know what advances lie in the future, I just don't understand how one can say "no comparably huge changes remain", as this is equivalent to a prediction about the future, and those are notoriously terrible.

Future predictors always want you to ignore the hundreds of times they've previously been wrong, and just get you to focus on this one call here.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#34

Post by FreedomToCreate »

Kaibeezy wrote: post #25

well covered in The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Paul Krugman reviews it here - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-th... bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - electrics, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, telecom - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no com…

brain augmentation, space travel and life extension would reshape humanity just as much, if not more than indoor plumbing, telecom and air travel.

No to mention that we actually lack the ability to grow abundant food without destructive environmental effects. Lots of research and business capital is going into new ways to grow food in smaller spaces. There is even development of meat that can be grown. These would fundamentally change society.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#35

Post by [deleted] »

milkytron wrote: post #28

> There are more scientists and engineers in the U.S. than ever before. None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living. It seems like this article is attempting to state a problem that doesn't exist to create a stir. No meaningful advances recently? I cannot take this statement seriously when I now have the entire internet easily accessible in my pocket at all times compared to…

[deleted]

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#36

Post by drawkbox »

If we don't have millions of robots in space, at least collecting energy and exploring, we still have lots and lots to do, many things can still be improved.

Once we do have AI and robotics in the reach of programmers then I bet we haven't even began to realize all the things we don't have now. I am a contrarian in that if computers added more work then so will robots, there will be more to do because there is more you can accomplish and unseen needs will arise. People could build companies and products almost individually like software today. When you lower the groupthink and bureaucracy around ideas/innovation, let individuals run with it, then it always opens up.

We could still do electric highways (interstate system for electric cars), drones are just getting started, ai/self driving or automated function free us up to do many other things, medicine/health advancements, virtual worlds that really improve your life, pipes that don't degrade, water desalinization, solar, we still need massive jumps in broadband and new ways to send/store/archive data (always will be a problem) and many many more.

We don't even really know the bottom of the ocean or the inside of the planet we live on really, robots will help us in that as well. So much to still explore, learn and innovate on.

Another Musk or Tesla could come along and open up ideas we had no idea were possible spawning all kinds of innovation and quality of life improvements.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#37

Post by danbruc »

None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living.

Regulations have raised the bar for commercializing new ideas while directing a growing share of innovative effort toward goals with benefits, such as cleaner air, that don’t translate into gross domestic product.

So cleaner air does not count as improved standard of living just because it does not show up¹ in the gross domestic product? This seems more a case of a broken metric than a broken development.

¹ On a second thought, it may actually show up in the gross domestic product via healthier people with less sick days and less medical spendings.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#38

Post by aetherson »

foobarian wrote: post #23
ronald_raygun wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I work in AI and I feel like it gets a lot of the brunt of the "game changing" tech hype, but to be honest if someone solved fusion that would be an absolute societal game changer.

I keep wondering when some dictatorship will sidestep rules and use genetic tech (crispr et al) to breed smarter humans. Maybe such humans could then figure out FTL, fusion, teleportation, and other Star Trek stuff.

Well, I think you'd probably have to start with some vague idea how to use genetic tech to breed smarter humans. The problem is pretty far from an ethical one right now. Nobody has the faintest idea how to do it.

(Also: if it were possible to breed generally smarter humans using genetic technology, I have a somewhat hard time believing that there are a lot of dictators who would be like, "Subjects who are way smarter than I am? SIGN ME UP!")

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#39

Post by Mz »

danbruc wrote: post #37

None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living. Regulations have raised the bar for commercializing new ideas while directing a growing share of innovative effort toward goals with benefits, such as cleaner air, that don’t translate into gross domestic product. So cleaner air does not count as improved standard of living just because it does not show up¹ in the gross domestic pr…

Agreed. The thinking of many people is incredibly screwed up. People have enormous trouble counting the suffering that did not happen as having any value.

Keeping your lungs: Does not count.

Lung transplant after you get deathly ill: Big bucks and doctor is a hero!

(eye roll)

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#40

Post by TeMPOraL »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #12

Have we somehow run out of big ideas before achieving cool scifi stuff, or are we just not allowing people to try out big ideas?

Exactly. Pick up any half-decent sci-fi book, or even rewatch Star Trek: TNG. There's plenty of cool stuff left to be done, and even more improvements to things that are already here.

The real problem is that current economy doesn't let those ideas grow.

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