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The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

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Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#31

Post by scarmig »

Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

Thinking in the very long term... energy?

Though even that, it seems it'd be cheaper to transport the people to the energy than vice versa.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#32

Post by elihu »

Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

Novel life forms and technology could be valuable, especially technology that's hard to replicate (due to proprietary processes/trade secrets or whatnot).

Fissionable materials might be valuable to planets that have none of their own and want to make use of nuclear power.

People are a resource of their own that may be wanted on sparsely inhabited planets (especially if birth rates on technically advanced planets are similar to those in developed nations here on Earth).

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#33

Post by nabla9 »

ra1n85 wrote: post #17

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." -Paul Krugman Paul does not have the best track record.

exact quote:

>"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."

Krugmans response to criticism:

> First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine's 100th anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there about St. Petersburg having more skyscrapers than New York, which was not a prediction, just a thought-provoker.

>But the main point is that I don't claim any special expertise in technology -- I almost never make technological forecasts, and the only reason there was stuff like that in the 98 piece was because the assignment required that I do that sort of thing.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#34

Post by ranger207 »

Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

The excellent Atomic Rockets site is designed as a reference for realistic sci-fi, and has a page on MacGuffinite, aka something that makes space exploration economically viable. The long story short is that there's really not all that much that can't be done here on Earth or at least in low orbit.

http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/macguffinite.ph...

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#35

Post by dghughes »

Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

Information.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#36

Post by dghughes »

TaylorAlexander wrote: post #30
Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

Information. Personally I imagine we're better off when we share information for free, but I haven't tested the hypothesis.

Aww dang it, I didn't see you wrote information first.

And here I am thinking I was being insightful.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#37

Post by Confusion »

ra1n85 wrote: post #17

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." -Paul Krugman Paul does not have the best track record.

Has the Internet's impact on the economy been greater than the fax machine's? What was the impact of the fax machine? Has it been greater than the impact of the telephone? The telegraph?

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#38

Post by tvanantwerp »

nabla9 wrote: post #33
ra1n85 wrote: post #17

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." -Paul Krugman Paul does not have the best track record.

exact quote: >"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." Krugmans…

He was partly right that most people have nothing to say to each other. But that doesn't seem to stop them from talking anyway.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#40

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

dghughes wrote: post #35
Johnny555 wrote: post #28

I'd be interested to know what possible commodity would be worth trading among star systems -- even if some star system has a planet made entirely of diamonds, surely it would take far less energy to made them here than to ship them between stars? Likewise, it seems that endless amounts of gold (platinum, rhodium, whatever) could be harvested from our own solar system before it's worth shipping here. Even if there's…

Information.

I doubt this. In fact I doubt the idea of interstellar trade.

Beyond a certain point of post-scarcity, everything stops being scarce, including invention and innovation.

We're already at that point with artefacts like music. Aliens could turn up tomorrow with centuries of unique music, and after the initial decade or five of novelty the music would end up as yet another playlist on Spotify, among countless others - so many no individual human could ever listen to more than a tiny fraction of them.

That's a rather silly example, but the point is still valid: if you imagine the same trend occurring in physics, biology, and technology, you end up at a place only a few centuries from so much novelty and invention is being produced that it's no longer a scare commodity. External sources might add a few minor tweaks to the generation system, but when even game changer technology stops being scarce, what is there left to trade?

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