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How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

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Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#31
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simply targeting the higher end market doesn't tell you anything about the margins of the business. You need to know the size of each segment of the market and then what can be done to increase margins in each segment. For Tesla, they can't simply stay in the higher end of the market as they need to get greater economies of scale with more volume. Like with the Model 3, they want to move down-market so that they can…

IIRC Tesla's margins are typically higher than competitors. They only lose money on each car because the R&D budget is wrapped into that. They lose money because they're investing into scale.

IIRC from a shareholders call, a Model S has margins from 20-30% percent, even after R&D is taken out. Tesla's losses have primarily stemmed from capital expenditures.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#32
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree, however people were saying pretty much the exact same things about Apple's phone efforts about ten years ago. In hindsight, it's clear that smartphones lined up just about perfectly with Apple's core competencies, but before they proved it in the market, people were saying just this sort of thing: the engineering is tough and different, the stuff Apple is good at isn't the stuff that's hard, regul…

Please excuse typos as I am on phone in the metro I appreciate that a lot since I was one of the naysayers. Admittedly I was a bitter PPC Mac user upset that we weren't getting attention on the desktop side but I was still worried. However, even if hindsight is 20/20, I do feel that a lot of the infrastructure and resources necessary for an iPhone were just there already and apple seized an emerging market. With cars…

I don't even think the naysayers were particularly wrong. Apple succeeded by fundamentally changing what a smartphone was, not by beating Blackberry and Nokia and such at their own game.

The biggest challenges were being extremely energy efficient to get acceptable battery life out of a tiny battery, and being extremely data efficient to get acceptable costs from expensive cellular carriers. People pointed out, and rightfully so, that Apple wasn't good at either.

They didn't anticipate that Apple would build a phone that was basically a thin shell around a (relatively) huge battery, or that they'd manage to convince a major carrier to offer an "unlimited" data plan. Suddenly, the stuff that the incumbents were good at didn't matter that much.

I don't see any way to do an equivalent move in the automobile industry. I don't think there are any areas that everybody is failing to fundamentally rethink, the way they were with energy and data usage a decade ago, where Apple could jump in and change the whole game. But I wouldn't bet money on it....

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#33
post #12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Phones is a really weird example here, considering that the two dominant phone players are both SV companies that went into that industry and crushed the incompetent incumbents. I see no reason to think that Apple could do with cars what they did with the iPhone, but that particular example doesn't make any sense.

I can name a few differences, even if I don't think it's impossible. Phones were ready for a natural complete upgrade from brick phones to smartphones. The mobile environment was there, all the network components were coming online to make it a really useful device, processors were getting to a good stage for mobile usage where it made sense to make the jump and the jump was right into what Apple already knew pretty…

The industry did not jump from dumb phones to iPhone. Blackberry pioneered the market and had a stranglehold on it until Apple came along and stomped them.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#34
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Low margin? They wouldn't be making Yugos. Like with their laptops and such, they'd be targeting the higher end of the market. Cyclical is also great -- that's exactly what the laptop and especially the phone market are.

Apple products haven't been the high end of the market for a long time, they're mass produced, mass consumed, purely disposable tech.

>Apple products haven't been the high end of the market for a long time, they're mass produced, mass consumed, purely disposable tech.

They are obviously mass produced, as they are consumer electronics, not boutique items.

They still cater to the high end of the laptop/desktop market (which is not the same as the "gamer laptop" or the "high end 20-core rendering workstation" niche market).

What competition do you think they have at that?

They are if not the most, some of the most well designed, well thought out, and innovative custom solutions (from heat dissipation to machining and assembly). The parts they use are the cream of the crop of the respective yields too -- when they mass order Samsung SSDs or AMD cards or memory, they get the best production runs. They don't use the most screaming, 1000 watt, 2-fans greatest speed AMD/Nvidia cards, but for the ones they do use, and that fit the energy/power profile they want to have in their boxes, they use their mass purchasing power to get the best units.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#35
post #9

It's only when Steve isn't at the helm that we hear about internal projects that have no direction. It was good while it lasted.

The interesting question is what has Jony Ive been up to? The Apple Watch needed a design reboot (and the Edition is practically dead) and now supposedly so does the Apple Car (at his behest[1]). A third iteration of the iPhone design and no new Macs designs (yet). He/Cook seized power from Forstall but there's been little outright success/breakthroughs to show since then [1] http://appleinsider.com/articles/16/01/25…

From what I've heard (and take this with a pyramid of salt because it's an anonomous internet comment) Jony Ive is essentially on a sabbatical and hasn't been seen on Apple's campus since before Summer. If I had to guess, he wants to leave Apple, but is staying on either until some unspecified product reveal or because he has to wait-out stock options or something.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#36
post #18
post #6

As an Apple shareholder, I am thankful Apple has shelved plans to dump billions into a cyclical, low margin, low return business.

Low margin? They wouldn't be making Yugos. Like with their laptops and such, they'd be targeting the higher end of the market. Cyclical is also great -- that's exactly what the laptop and especially the phone market are.

I don't think he means "cyclical" like "they obsolete themselves quickly so you have to buy a new one," but rather "cyclical" like "when the economy is down, people just hang on to the car they have for 5+ more years rather than buy a new one."

Margins is super complicated. iPhones don't cost more than Samsung flagships -- Apple's margins seem to come mostly from controlling manufacturing costs. Could Apple assert similar control over manufacturing costs for cars? Maybe! But maybe not. Cars are more complicated than phones.

If a margin inflation gets passed along to consumers, well, there are more people willing to pay an extra $200 (compared to a lower-cost competitor) every few years to have an iPhone than there are people willing to pay an extra $20,000 every few more years to buy an iCar -- just because it's a lot more money. And to be clear, $20,000 is an equivalent margin to the $200, scaled up for costs.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#37
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple has a problem with leadership. When managers aren't buying into a vision, mostly because it's murky at best, that is a big problem. That's the inverse of what would actually be a big problem: managers BUYING into a "murky at best" vision. > SV hubris believing you can go into any industry and disrupt the incompetent incumbents is laughable. Isn't that what people said about music players and then about phones…

You're comparing entirely different things. Chinese cars are barely being imported in the U.S. (Three models so far). It has taken many years to get this far, and will take longer for them to have a similar reputation as, say, Korea. Tesla has done well in the luxury car market, but they've been late and had quality issues. The Tesla 3 is not out yet and there is still a big risk they'll fail. So, "laughably easy" is…

>Chinese cars are barely being imported in the U.S. (Three models so far). It has taken many years to get this far, and will take longer for them to have a similar reputation as, say, Korea.

Yes, but the US is a mere 5% of the global population and about 20% of global GDP (down from decades ago). You can be a huge player and not even play in the US market. The Chinese are already selling their cars in many global markets.

>Tesla has done well in the luxury car market, but they've been late and had quality issues. The Tesla 3 is not out yet and there is still a big risk they'll fail.

Tesla doesn't have Apple's half a trillion in the bank though. And which established car maker didn't have quality issues at various times (and still today)?

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#38
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple products haven't been the high end of the market for a long time, they're mass produced, mass consumed, purely disposable tech.

Do tell us what the high end of the laptop and mobile device market looks like and what products occupy it.

Laptops - macs are more "high end" (although sometimes that just means paying more for the same spec) then your typical best buy pc selection but the loaded gaming laptops with what I'd call a "high end spec" are almost 100% PCs.

Re: How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit

#40
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple products haven't been the high end of the market for a long time, they're mass produced, mass consumed, purely disposable tech.

Do tell us what the high end of the laptop and mobile device market looks like and what products occupy it.

OP has a point though:

Macs have always historically been high-end and Apple's marketshare has historically hovered around 10%. Apple has come to dominate the high-end computer in recent years ― specifically the high-end laptop segment; at one point attaining 90% marketshare of laptops priced over $1,000 ― but that peak has receded and Apple never did penetrate the desktop market as much (which is another important segment foe high-end computers)

On the other hand, Apple's first mobile device (the iPod) was decidedly mass market and mass produced as Apple offered products for every price and segment ending up with over 70% marketshare for ALL mp3 players.

The iPhone is an interesting inflection point. Like the iPod it started out priced at the high end but Apple didn't quickly followup with cheaper products for all segments. Why not? The reason instead is that Apple went the mobile carrier subsidy route. The iPhone is mass market, mass produced and has ~50% marketshare in USA. However in markets where carrier subsidies aren't the norm e.g Europe, Apple has less than 20% marketshare.

Guess which other major technology purchase receives subsidies/payment plans? Cars. Apple could feasibly sell 'high-end' cars on mass market contracts and still retain their margins. However car manufacturing is very hard and Apple doesn't have any leverage from their existing products to force an advantage from the car parts factories...

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