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Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

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Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#31
post #23
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "the point," do you mean that the government intends to initially encourage innovation, only to later stifle, repress, and criminalize the elements it doesn't like? I mean, that's the reasonable application of the metaphor, right?

My point was that, assuming most people are unfamiliar with Chinese history under Mao, the expression will have positive connotations.

And those who are familiar with China under Mao will also find historically accurate connotations with Obama's quote.

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#32
post #17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also thought it was a slightly inappropriate metaphor, but it gets the point across.

By "the point," do you mean that the government intends to initially encourage innovation, only to later stifle, repress, and criminalize the elements it doesn't like? I mean, that's the reasonable application of the metaphor, right?

that sounds like something Obama would do when you put it like that...

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What I'm concerned about is the government stifling innovation such as driverless trucks to retain those jobs...What is the alternative? More likely the Government comes up with "innovative" ways to hide these people from the official unemployment numbers. Somehow unemployment is calculated at only 4.9% today...add 3.5 million newly unemployed commercial drivers tomorrow (>10% of US total population) and the new une…

Unemployment is a very difficult number to define and calculate. Do you count those that are not actively looking for work, and don't want to look for work? e.g. House(wife|husband)s, semi-retired people. Do you count those that have given up looking for work? Do you count those that are working part time, but looking for full time work (i.e. the underemployed)? Do you count those that aren't really looking for work…

Employment: the condition of having paid work. a person's trade or profession.

Just count those that want work or should have work (need to support a family/receiving government aid)

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#34
post #5

> OBAMA: The way I’ve been thinking about the regulatory structure as AI emerges is that, early in a technology, a thousand flowers should bloom. I gotta say, I thought he'd be more familiar with that metaphor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign

I think he knew the origin, but chose it anyway. It is an elegant phrase. Communists could be very eloquent.

How else do you think they managed to convince so many people to be communists?

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#35

"But it also has some downsides that we’re gonna have to figure out in terms of not eliminating jobs. It could increase inequality. It could suppress wages." No doubt that advances in technology have always done away with jobs. We're almost to the point at which the biggest blue collar industry (truck drivers) is about to be wiped out by self driving trucks. What I'm concerned about is the government stifling innovat…

Why aren't you "concerned" about people losing their jobs? The alternatives are tech companies start to pay their taxes and humans start to use tech to care for one another, genuinely, not just wealthy Silicon Valley types trying to make buckets because their "entitled" to do so and pretend it's all in the name of progress. The idea of the Internet and Automation were exciting to me as it was about liberation and dec…

Consider a broader timeline. It used to take humans over 500 hours of labor spinning, weaving, and sewing to produce a single shirt.

Automating textile production has "put more people out of work" than computers ever will. Do you think for a second we would ever want to go back to how it was? Do you ask the inventor of the sewing machine how they will start giving back?

These inventions free humanity for more worthwhile endeavors. Nobody will look back after the next great transition and wish we just had more humans driving trucks around the country. It would be utter lunacy. And the people who created the self-driving machines will be seen as liberators of human potential and ushers of a new era of productivity.

So it is, same as it ever was.

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#36
post #29
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like they say in the article, there's general AI (think sci-fi computers with minds) and specialized AI (think good old fashioned statistical models, but applied to more things and super effective). Specialized AI (and I hate calling it AI) is coming along really quickly. We're getting better at it in existing fields and learning to apply it to new fields. More than anything, we just have so much data on everything n…

Honest question: Why do you think that generalized and specialized AI are distinct things? Is it not possible that general AI is a specialized AI applied over the field of specialized AI generation?

My two cents: they are separate because there is no current algorithm that can take us from modeling (whether classical statistics or neural net) to intelligence. Applying our current specialized techniques to AI generation has not gotten us there. That is because the techniques are mostly model tweaking techniques. The models are generated and trained for each problem domain. A combined solution may be developed soon, but I doubt it.

There was a great article recently on HN that highlights the current problems:

http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/10/13224930/ai-deep-learning...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12684417

Just because we may acquire the processing power estimated to be used in the brain (in operations per second) doesn't mean we know how to write the software to accomplish the task. It is very clear current algorithms won't cut it.

Also, I think we are a few orders of magnitude off on raw processing requirements because I think it is a bandwidth issue as much as an operations per second issue.

TL;DR - you could throw as much processing power and data as you want at any current deep NN or their derivatives and you wouldn't get general intelligence.

That said I don't think the winter will be as bad as before because, like OP says, specialized AI is useful.

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#37
post #5

> OBAMA: The way I’ve been thinking about the regulatory structure as AI emerges is that, early in a technology, a thousand flowers should bloom. I gotta say, I thought he'd be more familiar with that metaphor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign

I'm reminded of another riff on that phrase from the book Nexus by Ramez Naam, which was also said in the context of AI and incredible (and potentially incredibly dangerous) technologies:

    Let a billion flowers bloom!

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#38
I wish people would stop bringing up the trolley problem as somehow relevant to self driving cars. In any situation,a car is going to brake as hard as possible while maintaining control, and only serve if there's no way to stop and a clear space. Other than that, a good enough interview that I can't see taking place again next presidential term.

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#39
post #29
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like they say in the article, there's general AI (think sci-fi computers with minds) and specialized AI (think good old fashioned statistical models, but applied to more things and super effective). Specialized AI (and I hate calling it AI) is coming along really quickly. We're getting better at it in existing fields and learning to apply it to new fields. More than anything, we just have so much data on everything n…

Honest question: Why do you think that generalized and specialized AI are distinct things? Is it not possible that general AI is a specialized AI applied over the field of specialized AI generation?

Specialized AI is all about X,Y pairs. Given X, predict Y. There are other problems it's good at too, like given X, choose a Y to optimize Z, but at it's core it's largely the same. On the fringes, you have stuff about exploration, which is AWESOME, but still pretty niche. At least 99% of the "AI" you hear about is of the X,Y variety. More to your point, if we can make generalized AI from "given X, predict Y," then nobody's figured out how to do it, and nobody has super promising research tracks to get it.

I think a lot of the early AI research (not my specialty) had the idea that if we made a bunch of systems that were good at their own piece of the puzzle, then we could just tack them together and get real intelligence. It just didn't turn out that way. Something I'm more familiar with is graphical models, and while they in principal could do amazing things when you stick little expert components together, we've proved the complexity grows pretty badly in the most general cases that would have been really amazing. I'd bet similar things happened in other "let's put a bunch of specialized systems together" tracks. Maybe we can do it, but not the naive way that would have been great.

Then you can get interesting and philosophical about it, where you might even say that emulating intelligence and intelligence are different. Like the chinese room thing, or even a character in a story vs a physical person. I'd rather not weigh in on that right now, but there are good interesting arguments both ways.

Re: Barack Obama on A.I., Autonomous Cars, and the Future of Humanity

#40
post #16

What does Hacker News think about AI? Is it real this time, or are we in for another winter? I'm seeing a lot of grand claims, and it certainly seems like there are plenty of applications, but I'm still not totally convinced that it will turn the entire economy upside down. Given the enormous amount of press, tweets, blog posts, conferences, degree programs, seminars and interviews popping up it seems like there has…

I have often wandered if there is some sort universe limitation to general AI singularities particularly if the current universe is actually a simulation. An intellectual singularity or extremely rampant aggressive intelligence might be an errant state that gets dealt with (aka universe circuit breaker / watchdog). This might also explain the Fermi Paradox.

The other idea I have doted on is that perhaps universes are the manufacturing tool to create super AI by some parent universe.

> Taking the pessimistic view on science, what if we don't get there?

I have no interest in living forever but I really really wish I could be told what will happen or what did happen or what all is. I'm sure specialized intelligence will continue to improve but my gut says general intelligence is probably not in our lifetime (or is limited or capped from above mentioned pop-culture-probably-wrong reasons).

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