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World Population Growth

ourworldindata.org

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Re: World Population Growth

#31

Post by WildUtah »

dzdt wrote: post #2

Peak population will be a huge paradigm shift for the world economy. For the entire history of the world we have relied on growth, and the main deiver of economic growth has been population growth. No more!

Peak population isn't coming in the next few centuries. The 2008 UN data these charts are based on had mistaken data on African growth. African fertility is much higher than expected then and continues not to fall.

The later 2100s in these charts now look to add several more billion and growing, almost all in Africa. Or from Africa; migration from poorer and overcrowded countries means Europe will probably be majority African by 2100 and have several hundred million more than shown in these charts also.

The post-2008 revisions of UN projections are quite sobering about the future and sustainability of humanity. We are not on a path to sustainability. We are cratering full speed toward a potential Great Filter.

Re: World Population Growth

#32

Post by WildUtah »

skolos wrote: post #30

Interesting article, but most graphs would be more readable if they would use log scale.

Also if the timeline could be adjusted. Lots of things are more interesting if the first 4500 years of no data could be skipped so we could actually see the recent developments.

Re: World Population Growth

#33

Post by eveningcoffee »

Lazare wrote: post #11
CalRobert wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate? I'm pretty in favour of open borders as an immigrant myself but that statement could do with some supporting evidence.

It's not so much a question of evidence as basic math. Imagine a society with 100 people. A working adult can create 50 widgets per year, and there's 15 kids and 5 retirees. The economy produce 80 * 50 = 4000 widgets per year, which gives a per capita income of 40 widgets. You can have whatever tax, welfare, or income redistribution policies you like, but there's only 4000 widgets to go around. Great. Now let's say 5…

A society just needs to maintain its population, perhaps with little growth to edge the losses from unaccountable forces.

Growth is not needed, only thing that should be checked is that the growth does not become negative. This should not be patched by the immigration, as it will just delay the problem, not fix it.

Re: World Population Growth

#34

Post by WildUtah »

Symmetry wrote: post #14

If there are heritable traits that lead to people having more kids in a developed world environment then at some point evolution will take over and we'll start to see exponential growth again.

Yes. The only way to long run sustainability is central control of population with mandatory birth limits or unlimited expansion of land area to extraterrestrial territory.

Otherwise evolution will always exceed its limits and produce a crash. Malthus explained it all mathematically 200 years ago, even before Darwin documented the mechanisms.

Re: World Population Growth

#35

Post by eveningcoffee »

collyw wrote: post #20
ArtemZ wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the connection between high living standards and immigration?

My simplistic version is that our economy is basically a ponzi scheme that needs new entrants to fuel the "growth".

Actually not the children, as they are the expense

It needs the people in the productive age. Immigration of young adults is economically the best solution in short term as it leaves the expense of growing them up to the other societies.

Re: World Population Growth

#36

Post by eloisant »

Lazare wrote: post #11
CalRobert wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate? I'm pretty in favour of open borders as an immigrant myself but that statement could do with some supporting evidence.

It's not so much a question of evidence as basic math. Imagine a society with 100 people. A working adult can create 50 widgets per year, and there's 15 kids and 5 retirees. The economy produce 80 * 50 = 4000 widgets per year, which gives a per capita income of 40 widgets. You can have whatever tax, welfare, or income redistribution policies you like, but there's only 4000 widgets to go around. Great. Now let's say 5…

> Again, policies can change the distribution, but not the total number

Indeed, policies can change the distribution. If one of the 100 people is getting 800 of the 4000 widgets produced, you can probably make some policy adjustments before coming to the conclusion that you're not producing enough stuff.

Re: World Population Growth

#37

Post by WildUtah »

maxerickson wrote: post #16
Lazare wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much a question of evidence as basic math. Imagine a society with 100 people. A working adult can create 50 widgets per year, and there's 15 kids and 5 retirees. The economy produce 80 * 50 = 4000 widgets per year, which gives a per capita income of 40 widgets. You can have whatever tax, welfare, or income redistribution policies you like, but there's only 4000 widgets to go around. Great. Now let's say 5…

That basic math illustrates things nicely but hides the real picture. There's about 2 million people working in agriculture and 1 million working in mining in the US: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm And about 5 million working in the energy industry: http://energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-first-annual-nationa... Our widgets are built by machines. This too is a facile picture of the situation, but our materia…

150 years ago, 90% of Americans worked in agriculture. Today 2% do and we are better fed. Population growth or shrinkage cannot match productivity technology as the key factor in material quality of life.

Countries with falling populations will just need more robots. Mass immigration isn't going to help, but this is one of those problems easily solved with tech.

Re: World Population Growth

#38

Post by eveningcoffee »

skolos wrote: post #30

Interesting article, but most graphs would be more readable if they would use log scale.

Not sure, I think that linear scale is more understood.

My only complaint is that the graph 5 should have been ordered by the population growth rate because as it is now leave a bit distorted general picture.

Re: World Population Growth

#39

Post by WildUtah »

Frogolocalypse wrote: post #3

All I can say is, if you want to maintain that standard of living in western democracies, you'd better get used to immigration.

The other countries with well educated young people that could contribute also have falling populations. The nations of Africa (and similar Guatemala, Bolivia, Gaza, Afghanistan) with high illiteracy, high violence, and near zero higher education are the ones that have extra emigrants to offer.

That kind of immigration is the only kind available and it isn't going to help anyone support higher standards of living in the short term.

Re: World Population Growth

#40

Post by Scarblac »

Lazare wrote: post #11
CalRobert wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate? I'm pretty in favour of open borders as an immigrant myself but that statement could do with some supporting evidence.

It's not so much a question of evidence as basic math. Imagine a society with 100 people. A working adult can create 50 widgets per year, and there's 15 kids and 5 retirees. The economy produce 80 * 50 = 4000 widgets per year, which gives a per capita income of 40 widgets. You can have whatever tax, welfare, or income redistribution policies you like, but there's only 4000 widgets to go around. Great. Now let's say 5…

Yes, the number of widgets goes down from 40 to 33.5, but also 30 people can lead a retired life instead of 5. That is also worth something.
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