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CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

sociable.co

31–40 of 98 posts

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#31
post #30
post #13

Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.

Uprisings are nothing but a reaction to an unhealthy situation. Terrorism boils down to that same problem. Yet, we never seem to be too interested in understanding and resolving the issues we have created which led to these reactions.

Which do you think guarantees an intelligence agency more funding?

My feeling is that there is some conflict of interest here when it comes to fixing societies' woes and people who manufacture tear gas and drones. A lot of money to be made in keeping the status quo, what do you get from fixing the world?

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#33
post #13

Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.

So who gets that money? You support democracy in China and the Communists start an uprising. You support Communists and the other side starts an uprising; someone is always pissed off -- it isn't "government" vs. "the people." It's vastly more complex. Rarely are there two sides -- more like 200. Intelligence is a wilderness of mirrors as James Angleton had said. You could say "end the CIA" but that's sticking one's…

Claiming everything is morally ambiguous and thus we need the CIA, which has real examples of unambiguous harm, seems more like sticking one's head in the sand to me.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#34
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Backcasting is a fairly standard testing method, though you've got to be careful about overfitting. I need to RTFA, but this sounds like it might have relations to Peter Turchin's work on cliodynamics.

RTFA won't do you much good. It's pretty light on detail. (IMO) It spends most of its time meandering about and trying to sound like some sort of really mind-blowing techno shaman. So much so, that I doubt the authenticity and accuracy of the information that presented. I felt like it read a little more like a paranoid fringe article. I mean "Siren" in this case is named for the seductive nature of the power of the s…

Yeah, I actually dug two layers further in, and tried to see if there was any info on the conf site itself (there isn't) on the talk / system. Overally, pretty content free.

Oh well.

Jaron Lanier coined the term. He's not entirely dismissable, but also not exactly tightly tuned to the heartbeat of the intel community AFAIU.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#35
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uprisings are nothing but a reaction to an unhealthy situation. Terrorism boils down to that same problem. Yet, we never seem to be too interested in understanding and resolving the issues we have created which led to these reactions.

Which do you think guarantees an intelligence agency more funding? My feeling is that there is some conflict of interest here when it comes to fixing societies' woes and people who manufacture tear gas and drones. A lot of money to be made in keeping the status quo, what do you get from fixing the world?

> what do you get from fixing the world?

An abundance of profound happiness which, for now, unfortunately remains too invisible for too many people. But I have a feeling that this is about to begin to change now.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#36

I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…

> Stay off the wires (including finance), and it's very hard for them to see much of anything. NGOs. [yet again with silent (dumb?) downvotes in the same comment chain that mentions "network effects".]

Maybe elaborate on what you mean? The single acronym in your reply doesn't actually expound a point of view.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the CIA, there is a high chance that they are spending more money to fuel the revolution.

Well, that's one way of knowing when uprisings will happen. Deming wrote that if you have a policy of rewarding people for fighting fires, you also need to watch who is setting those fires.

You can also get some good stats by lighting some random fires yourself and record who comes in to either put them out, or fan the flames.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#39

I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…

And the other way round. I lived in Beijing at the time when Americans bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade (May 1999). CNN and other Western news channels were showing films of furious Chinese protesters shouting and throwing things at the U.S. embassy buildings in Beijing. This went on for days. When I actually went to the Sanlitun embassy area, the closest thing to a riot was a stout Western woman walking her po…

The Chinese were far from being genuinely offended, they were more than happy with the parts of the spontaneously disassembled F-117A. Probably they even helped to make the new artificial lake afterwards.

Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance

#40

I can not predict social unrest 3-5 days before it happens but my google alert for "black man shot by police" can do the same reliably 24 hours before social unrest starts. Suck this CIA.

I think you'll find a lot of false positives, as unfortunately that alert will be sent more than once a week: http://www.killedbypolice.net/ (M/B means Male/Black)

Set an alert for "cop convicted of unlawful killing of suspect"

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