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What value do we create here?

astatespacetraveler.com

31–40 of 60 posts

Re: What value do we create here?

#31
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about money value, not "real value." (I guess that might not be the clearest term for what I mean) The value of farm equipment is in more crops being produced. The value of liquidity is less clear. An upward sloping yield curve means people are willing to exchange more money for shorter term debt. That money can then be used to invest in the creation of more products. It's not until that point that it'…

I understand how you are defining value. I am just rejecting that definition because it is both different from how people typically define the term and not particularly useful. For instance you are claiming that software has no value, only the consumer end-products you create with it. Most people would say software has value equal to the increased efficiency it gives you. In that same vein I am claiming liquidity has…

Sorry, the meaning I've been trying to get across is intrinsic value and I think we agree. I'm not trying to say that liquidity has no value. It clearly does have value.

My point is that liquidity's value comes from its secondary effects of allocating resources more efficiently. It's important to have this awareness because increasing liquidity might not always be the best way to increase the efficiency of allocation.

Same with software. Software tools have value equal to (amount of things produced with them) - (value of things produced without them).

Re: What value do we create here?

#32
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because while they shaved 600ms of your execution time they also lowered your spread by 50 basis points, making it cheaper for you to unload your bond holdings on the market.

Making it cheaper for WHO to unload their bond holdings? The person who buys and holds for some time wouldn't notice the fractionally smaller spread. The majority of trading today is done automatically, and it's all this trading that sees the benefit. But, again, how useful is this sort of trading? Surely at some point it must move from "efficiently pricing securities" to gambling with the froth. How would trading ch…

Please define flipping a security when you're holding a futures contract for the near month. You need to step back and understand the totality of the complex financial markets before you presume to understand peoples motivations by dictating to them how long they should hold a financial instrument. People use the markets for varying motivations and their holding periods are one, of many things, that vary.

Re: What value do we create here?

#33

The first two comments on the site provide a great insight into the question. The first commenter posts to try and explain what value is being created. Efficient markets -> lower transaction costs -> greater access to the markets by everyone. Why is that un-noble? Isn't Art.sy doing the same thing? All true. Then Carter responds agreeing and writes a bit about what Art.sy is doing. Art.sy is not saving the world, but…

The first commenter was me. The financial markets are horizontal in the goals they serve. Drawing connections to specific utility can be done, but doesn't have to be done. For example:

Efficient markets -> lower transaction costs -> greater access to the markets by everyone -> farmer sells a futures contract to lock in price and hedge risk -> farmer uses capital to buy equipment -> farmer grows more crops

Your definition of utility is valid, but your desire to draw direct connections between end game utility is misplaced because there are millions of connections that can be drawn. Each market participant interacts with the markets according to their own definition of what is and is not important to them. You seek to define value for every human using financial markets in the world.

Re: What value do we create here?

#34
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making it cheaper for WHO to unload their bond holdings? The person who buys and holds for some time wouldn't notice the fractionally smaller spread. The majority of trading today is done automatically, and it's all this trading that sees the benefit. But, again, how useful is this sort of trading? Surely at some point it must move from "efficiently pricing securities" to gambling with the froth. How would trading ch…

Please define flipping a security when you're holding a futures contract for the near month. You need to step back and understand the totality of the complex financial markets before you presume to understand peoples motivations by dictating to them how long they should hold a financial instrument. People use the markets for varying motivations and their holding periods are one, of many things, that vary.

Why are you holding the contract? You're an airline hedging against rising oil prices? You're a multinational corporation locking in a reasonable exchange rate when dealing with overseas manufacturers? You're a speculator who thinks the market isn't properly anticipating the impact of a weather pattern? All these seem fairly reasonable to me.

I define a "flipper" as someone whose sole purpose in owning a security is to pass it off at a higher price to another "flipper" down the road.

It was an offhand comment and my terms were non-standard, I apologize. I wasn't so much defining "flipper" by the length of time one holds a security, but the motivation for doing so.

If most of the trading boils down to huge groups of firms selling back and forth to each other, it doesn't seem to matter to me whether the spreads shrink or not. It's a zero sum game and it's just a matter of one side ekeing out more money or the other.

Re: What value do we create here?

#35
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but still no. By providing liquidity you can be directly benefiting someone else but you're still not directly creating value. Liquidity, immediacy or anything else in the financial markets don't have any intrinsic value. The only reason the financial system exists at all is to facilitate the efficient allocation of resources towards the production of things that have real value.

Please define "things that have real value".

[deleted]

Re: What value do we create here?

#36
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please define "things that have real value".

Things people want that aren't a means to get something else. Burrito? Yes. Clothes? Yes. Art? Yes. Money? No. Liquidity? No.

This is patently absurd.

"Burritos" beget nourishment.

"Clothes" beget modesty.

"Art" begets pretension.

The irony here is that the liquidity provided by our financial system permits the use of money to acquire all of these things. It is this very liquidity that also permits the allocation of work to those with the best skill sets and solutions for the problems at hand.

I would add that (IMO) anything which diminishes suffering (in all forms) and increases compassion has value.

Re: What value do we create here?

#37
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please define flipping a security when you're holding a futures contract for the near month. You need to step back and understand the totality of the complex financial markets before you presume to understand peoples motivations by dictating to them how long they should hold a financial instrument. People use the markets for varying motivations and their holding periods are one, of many things, that vary.

Why are you holding the contract? You're an airline hedging against rising oil prices? You're a multinational corporation locking in a reasonable exchange rate when dealing with overseas manufacturers? You're a speculator who thinks the market isn't properly anticipating the impact of a weather pattern? All these seem fairly reasonable to me. I define a "flipper" as someone whose sole purpose in owning a security is…

What you call "flipper" is normally called a "speculator".

Also, speculators add value to the market because they push prices toward the true values. If an asset is expected to be more valuable in the future, speculators will buy it now, raise the prices, thereby encouraging consumers of that asset to use less of it. This ensures that more is available for future use.

Also, speculators also add liquidity for consumers. Unless demand for a long hedge exactly matches demand for a short hedge, you need speculators to pick up the slack.

Re: What value do we create here?

#38
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering how many people in the world are starving, ill, undereducated, and unemployed, I'd say we're doing a piss-poor job of 'efficiently allocating the world's capital'.

> Considering how many people in the world are starving, ill, undereducated, and unemployed, I'd say we're doing a piss-poor job of 'efficiently allocating the world's capital'. Considering how many in the world aren't starving, ill, undereducated, and unemployed, I'd say we're doing an utterly frigging amazing job of 'efficiently allocating the world's capital'. Seriously - the question isn't, "Why are some people p…

Agreed, we've done a pretty amazing job to become so productive. But we've done a terrible job of distributing this among the world's population. It's pretty appalling that with our current levels of productivity there are still so many people whose basic needs are not being met.

I guess it depends what you mean by efficiently allocating capital. What's the end goal? Just to produce as much as we can?

Re: What value do we create here?

#39
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please define flipping a security when you're holding a futures contract for the near month. You need to step back and understand the totality of the complex financial markets before you presume to understand peoples motivations by dictating to them how long they should hold a financial instrument. People use the markets for varying motivations and their holding periods are one, of many things, that vary.

Why are you holding the contract? You're an airline hedging against rising oil prices? You're a multinational corporation locking in a reasonable exchange rate when dealing with overseas manufacturers? You're a speculator who thinks the market isn't properly anticipating the impact of a weather pattern? All these seem fairly reasonable to me. I define a "flipper" as someone whose sole purpose in owning a security is…

Best of luck in your attempts to radically alter basic human nature and the foundations underlying the theory of evolution.

Practical measures can be put in place to mitigate the negative affects of marketplace irrationality, but please do not behave as if people lack a profit motive. This extreme Ayn Rand style thinking is what drove our economy into a ditch in the first place.

Re: What value do we create here?

#40
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering how many people in the world are starving, ill, undereducated, and unemployed, I'd say we're doing a piss-poor job of 'efficiently allocating the world's capital'. Considering how many in the world aren't starving, ill, undereducated, and unemployed, I'd say we're doing an utterly frigging amazing job of 'efficiently allocating the world's capital'. Seriously - the question isn't, "Why are some people p…

Agreed, we've done a pretty amazing job to become so productive. But we've done a terrible job of distributing this among the world's population. It's pretty appalling that with our current levels of productivity there are still so many people whose basic needs are not being met. I guess it depends what you mean by efficiently allocating capital. What's the end goal? Just to produce as much as we can?

> Agreed, we've done a pretty amazing job to become so productive. But we've done a terrible job of distributing this among the world's population.

The problem isn't distribution - it's a couple of different things.

Forgive me if this seems obvious, but the biggest reason some people are poor is lack of production - by and large, the poorest people aren't producing very many things that their fellow man wants to trade them things for. Even looking at charity as a short term bridge, to be independent and emancipated person you need to produce as much or more than you consume. So, why aren't they producing? That's a heck of a complicated question. I'd say the number one most common reason is bad government, and the number two is time.

Bad government - well, you know how that works. I was just in Cambodia last month - no matter how much you'd like to produce, you're not going to be able to to under Khmer Rogue Agrarian Communism. You need basic free action, liberty, human rights to produce.

Most people agree with that well enough. But they don't necessarily like the second answer - time. It takes time for people to grow into producing and succeeding. The fastest it happens is 1-2 generations, but those are people coming from cultures with high priority on education, industry, and family ties (I'm thinking of Ashkenazi Jewish and Han Chinese as my first examples - people from those cultures regularly go from nothing to fairly wealthy in 1-2 generations). Most more normal cultures, it seems to take 3-5 generations of incremental lessons and improvements to get out of poverty. My great-grandparents were dirt poor - literally had nothing, my grandparents were quite poor, my parents came up poor and moved into middle class, and I've got a shot to break upwards from there.

I think you can help people out with that cycle, but only so much. I mean, the track record of foreign aid is really, really bad. (I can dig up some citations and studies if you don't know about it - but foreign aid has basically failed to end poverty in the countries it was sent to; poverty actually increased in a number of places that got large amounts of aid) I think it really does take 3-5 generations under normal circumstances for people to get into the right mentalities of produce things, consume and save wisely with the money, educate your children, delay gratification, etc, etc. Much of this happens in the home. These lessons take a while to learn.

It's not a consumption problem first - it's a production problem. It's not that there's not enough food to eat - it's that people aren't growing and cooking enough food. If they were, they'd have enough to eat. When we keep giving people food, that doesn't seem to get them into learning how to grow and cook, which is what they need to be emancipated and independent, living, producing, and getting wealthy on their own.

> It's pretty appalling that with our current levels of productivity there are still so many people whose basic needs are not being met.

First and foremost, I think you've got to be an optimist at how great things are. Flush toilets are a luxury in Cambodia, man. I think it's marvelous that we have so many flush toilets in the world. Seriously, I'm in Hong Kong now, and I'm walking into nice hotels and using the men's room there and just really enjoying the experience. After Cambodia, using a nice bathroom feels like incredible luxury to me.

But I digress - first and foremost, there's the problem of bad government. Bad/corrupt/stifling rule = no progress. So the people of Burma, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba are in trouble until then. You need protections of human rights and liberty, and some sort of sanity about allowing people to produce and keep what they produce. No mass murdering, arrests and tortures, confiscation of property at the whim of some bureaucrat.

And then you need time. Cambodia's rapidly improving since the Vietnamese government overthrew the Khmer Rouge in the early 90's. It was an utter wasteland under the Communists, now it's poor but improving every year. In two more generations (40-50 years, they have kids young there), it'll be fairly prosperous. They'll have flush toilets, they won't have the same traffic accident rate, there'll be more hospitals and infrastructure and clean food and water and medicine. Things will improve. It does take time, though.

Actually, of all the things that improve nations, ironically, it seems like foreign investment into industry does the best. But maybe this is selection bias - industry is only built in stable places, and we already know stability is important. Still, I see a lot of the wealth in Cambodia coming from foreign investment in hotels, hospitals, and other infrastructure that was designed for Western visitors, but is also immense help to the Khmer people. (The hospital is half-price for Khmer, for instance, and those hotel jobs are highly sought after)

> I guess it depends what you mean by efficiently allocating capital. What's the end goal? Just to produce as much as we can?

Well, it doesn't hurt. Things we produce start out as luxuries and eventually become commodities. There's (slow) internet in Cambodia, which is a result of the people who made hardware and software and networking originally. There's cars in Cambodia. They'll import flush toilets eventually. (You can find them already at luxury places) Medicine that gets invented in the West gets genericized 15 years later, and is available for very little money in developing places at that point. All the knowledge we invent and innovate makes it's way over there. They can and do use modern agricultural techniques. New designs on cars and clothing and manufacturing make the way over to developing places.

Yes, actually, producing as much as we can is a pretty good plan for improving the world. That, and overthrowing bad governments I suppose. Then it just takes time - people need to learn little lessons about producing, saving, delaying gratification, and so on. It takes a little while - we're all of us still just overgrown apes and all - but we're moving forwards at a pretty remarkable pace.

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