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The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

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Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#31

Post by boto3 »

WDCDev wrote: post #12
advisedwang wrote: post #3

If Google is really aiming as high as it says it is, you would expect the rate of successes to be fairly low. A true "moonshot" success - one that creates a whole new industry - every decade would still be a phenomenal success. Maybe we just need patience?

This depends on the goal of the projects. If it's pure R&D that doesn't have a requirement to transition to commercial use, then you are absolutely correct. I don't think that's the case here. Some percentage of projects has to transition it's technology or research into commercial use, otherwise what is the point? Google is a publicly traded company, I wouldn't be a happy stockholder if I knew they were blowing $1 b…

How? Google is not built on fundamental research like Xerox was. It's essentially a consumer company. Yes search and ad tech at scale is hard engineering, but it's the same as the physics of light.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#32

Post by illicium »

wonkaWonka wrote: post #20
khnd wrote: post #11

why does it matter if the moonshot factory is getting products out the door or not?

Because everyone always has to be shipping and disrupting! Big Business! Product! Sales! Who's to blame?! Attention, Decision, Interest, Action. AIDA. We're adding a little something to this month's sales contest. As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado . Anybody want to see second prize? (second prize is a set of steak knives.) Third prize is you're fired. These are The New Leads . These are the Glengarr…

I realize that this comment is tongue-in-cheek, but the reality is that Alphabet is a corporation, not a research university. Corporations by definition need to ship and make money.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#34

Post by duaneb »

jfoster wrote: post #27
kllrnohj wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

200M km of adaptive cruise control & lane assist on a highway is very different from 2.7M km of fully autonomous driving on city streets & highway.

Think of the data collection aspect of it, though. Tesla's driving AI will know what happens in the real world better than Google's driving AI does.

I think the general case—navigating unusual terrain, intersections, traffic patterns, changes in aggressiveness tolerance, construction, adapting to "normal" problems like needing to turn left illegally at a stoplight when the oncoming lane is continual—is almost entirely unrelated to where Tesla has an advantage. This entirely autonomous general case seems to be where Google is attempting to dominate.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#35

Post by jfoster »

in_cahoots wrote: post #30
jfoster wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think of the data collection aspect of it, though. Tesla's driving AI will know what happens in the real world better than Google's driving AI does.

Does Tesla collect data when Autopilot is turned off? Otherwise I would be very curious to know how many miles of non-highway driving it has logged.

I don't know, but they do have a history of logging a lot of data. They've used some of the logged data to rebut high-profile critics in blog posts in the past, in cases of accidents or low-mileage claims.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#36

Post by samwillis »

flexie wrote: post #16

I have been wondering if Google hasn't already lost the self driving race to Tesla. Google still drives a few test vehicles around and has totalled some 2.7 million km: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_self-driving_car Tesla has more than 100,000 model S driving around and in just 7 months their auto pilots have already surpassed the km driven by Google for the past 7 years by almost a factor 100 (roughly 200M…

Tesla's auto pilot isn't at all comparable to what Google are doing. It essentially the same as the adaptive cruse control (cruse control that adjusts to traffic in front) and lane assist (auto stearing to stay in lane) you can get from most other car manufactures as an option.

That's not to say that tesla isn't developing full automation it's just that what they sell now is just clever branding on something you can get elsewhere.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#37

Post by bryanlarsen »

flexie wrote: post #16

I have been wondering if Google hasn't already lost the self driving race to Tesla. Google still drives a few test vehicles around and has totalled some 2.7 million km: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_self-driving_car Tesla has more than 100,000 model S driving around and in just 7 months their auto pilots have already surpassed the km driven by Google for the past 7 years by almost a factor 100 (roughly 200M…

Tesla may have an order of magnitude more kilometers, but the quality of data that Google is collecting is (IMO) more than an order of magnitude superior per kilometer.

Tesla (currently) has one radar, one camera and 4 short distance ultrasonic sensors. Google has LIDAR plus a lot more.

Tesla's suite may or may not be sufficient for operation. But for training, good data is critical.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#38

Post by howlin »

guelo wrote: post #13
mdorazio wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people (myself included) would compare X in intent and setup to PARC from the 1970s. The latter managed the extraordinary feat of pushing out a major innovation on average about once every 2.5 years from 1970 to 2000. That's things like laser printing, OOP, Ethernet, etc. that went on to build industries or take existing ones in new directions. X, on the other hand, has been around for over 6 years now and as fa…

Their biggest success is probably Google Brain.

Google brain was an acquisition, not a Google X project.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#39

Post by cardine »

nathan_f77 wrote: post #18

I think it would be so fun to work there, even with all this political stuff happening. I guess it's sort of like Google's internal "Y Combinator", where they try out a whole bunch of startup ideas and have practically unlimited funding.

I think the fact that a project would receive unlimited funding is a negative, not a positive.

Instead of getting lean startups that have to move quickly because of resource scarcity you have bloated startups that feel no pressure to move quickly because of the unlimited resources they are receiving.

Re: The Google X moonshot factory is struggling to get products out the door

#40

Post by bbctol »

howlin wrote: post #38
guelo wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their biggest success is probably Google Brain.

Google brain was an acquisition, not a Google X project.

Google Brain was an internal development, while Google DeepMind was an acquisition. What the conceptual difference is supposed to be between the two is hard to say.
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