Phil Plait of Bad Astronomy also has a good (if now depressingly repetetive) take on it[0].
[0] http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/08/16/july_201...
July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
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Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#32I didn't know if it was just because I now have a 2 year old, but New York summers have definitely seemed harder to deal with each year I've lived here. Is there a commonly accepted minimum temperature difference threshold that is perceivable by humans? E.g., if summer in 2016 was hotter than 2015 by X, I will notice?
This is a "just noticeable difference", stacks of research on it. In some situations the JND for temperature is as small as 0.02 degC. Whereas if I sneak the room temperature up over the course of about 10 minutes you may not notice a 5 degC change. From one summer to another? I'm going to speculate that people have no idea whether it was cooler last year.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#33FUD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt
Spoken like a true merchant of doubt. It takes no effort to make accusations like this, and it works too well because the majority of people lack the rational decision making processes to understand that they are being tricked.
On behalf of the fossil fuel industry, keep up the good work! It's people like you that keep our profits (and emissions) high! Never give up the fight, comrade. Our next quarterly bonus depends on it!
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#34The part I find especially frustrating is that, on average, a New Yorker has a lower carbon footprint than the typical American, probably due to the heavy use of the train. So even when I do the (I think) eco-friendly thing by not having a car and using public transit, I'm still being punished for what the rest of the US (and the rest of the world) does.
Even with your slightly lower footprint due to not owning a car you still have a much larger footprint than the world mean. Probably 2-3x. So there are billions of people being "punished" for what you're doing.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#35These maps are based on emission trends continuing, assuming no political action will be taken. But wouldn't a hotter world tend to exacerbate emission trends, with human needs for AC and desalination rising, plus forest fires? Moreover, there might be some tipping point for large scale methane release. The 'tail risk' to global warming has appreciable density a long way out.
I'm not sure. Many of the countries with the largest emissions per capita are in regions where houses are heated in the winter and cooled in the summer. Given that indoor temperature is ~ 20C, the ∆T for heating can be much greater than for cooling, since cold outdoor temp can easily go as low as -20C, while really hot weather won't go much above 40C. Thus, in a warmer climate where you need less heating in winter an…
That assumes power consumption is constant for a given ∆T regardless of the method used to produce it, which seems optimistic.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure. Many of the countries with the largest emissions per capita are in regions where houses are heated in the winter and cooled in the summer. Given that indoor temperature is ~ 20C, the ∆T for heating can be much greater than for cooling, since cold outdoor temp can easily go as low as -20C, while really hot weather won't go much above 40C. Thus, in a warmer climate where you need less heating in winter an…
That assumes power consumption is constant for a given ∆T regardless of the method used to produce it, which seems optimistic.
Yeah. I don't think thermodynamics works like that.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#37I am lucky I live in the northen parts of Europe. I do not wish to live in America in ~50-100 years from now since there is so much guns and other weapons easily available.
People who care about their childrens future should start planning now. I think when the shit hits the fan it will hit hard and fast.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#38The part I find especially frustrating is that, on average, a New Yorker has a lower carbon footprint than the typical American, probably due to the heavy use of the train. So even when I do the (I think) eco-friendly thing by not having a car and using public transit, I'm still being punished for what the rest of the US (and the rest of the world) does.
Even more troubling: we are being punished by what the world did , generations past. This stuff has, by our standards, long delayed effects. The implication is disconcerting: a FULL STOP of excessive green house gas emissions right now will have, at best, a notable impact in several decades.
Without all the stuff generations past did you might still be living in a cave and hunting and gathering for food.
All in, the gains you've received from your ancestors FAR FAR outweigh the losses.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#39So 14 of the 15 hottest years ever have taken place since 2000. I'm wondering, if this is the result of global heating due to emissions, why do we see so many new record highs only now? The industrial revolution has been going on already for over 150 years. Why were there so few records broken in, say, 1980 - 1996, and so many in 2000 - 2016?
I think you're misunderstanding the arithmetic. Take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_recor... The Nth "hottest years" are relative to the present day. So in the graph, it looks like 1981 would have been a record hot year - but now it's only the 30th (or whatever) hottest year. If the graph were a completely smooth upward-sloping line, then you'd expect that 15 of the 15 hottest years…
Thanks for the chart. To me it still seems like we are missing something. If you look at the period of 1940 - 1980, then there was not really an upward or downward trend. But in the 36 years after 1980, the global temperature has been going up like crazy. Should all of that be attributed to statistical noise? To me it looks like some new factor has started to influence the climate in the recent years, whatever that factor may be.
Re: July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
#40The part I find especially frustrating is that, on average, a New Yorker has a lower carbon footprint than the typical American, probably due to the heavy use of the train. So even when I do the (I think) eco-friendly thing by not having a car and using public transit, I'm still being punished for what the rest of the US (and the rest of the world) does.
Even with your slightly lower footprint due to not owning a car you still have a much larger footprint than the world mean. Probably 2-3x. So there are billions of people being "punished" for what you're doing.
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