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Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

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Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#31
post #10
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has infinitely better targeting and signal about their users.

Google has context. You search for something, chances are you're interested in buying it. Placing an ad in the search page has better ROI for advertisers. At Facebook you can build loyalty which is a different beast altogether.

Along those lines, Amazon is a much more dangerous competitor to AdSense than Facebook is at the moment.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#32
post #17
post #2

As much as people like to consider Google revenu sources very diverse or dream about future of other Google bets, Google is mostly an advertisement company heavily relying on their search business. It's obvious that Facebook has a better position for growth and adding new channels for their ads business. I can see Facebook share of online advertising grow in the next couple of years.

I'm not so sure about facebook - historically social media companies just "run out of fashion".

Until they don't. The past is an unreliable predictor of the future[1].

The only people who care about being on a fashionable network are young people, and Facebook solves that problem by buying whatever platform young people are using.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#33
post #18

Somehow in 18 years and billions of dollars of revenue, Google has not figured out another way to make real money.

It hasn't been an issue until now. Google is an advertising business making real money by advertising. Is this due to the increasing popularity of ad-blockers?

Ad blockers are probably an issue, but people blocking ads probably weren't clicking on many ads, either. Other theories might be the economy starting to dip (which would be reflected in trimming of marketing budgets) and competition.

Competition is interesting. In 2005, there were tons of online stores, and users found them through Google search. Nowadays, most brands seem to have an Amazon store. If a user wants to buy something, they'll just go straight to Amazon and bypass Google entirely.

As Amazon accumulates more stores and more buyers, Google is increasingly cut out of that search/purchase loop, and stores have less reason to buy Google ads at all.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#34
I think internally, Google has already seen this coming and are trying to steer the company towards AI-related verticals. Search revenue is going to be always under threat because of the rise in mobile devices and also ad blockers. Interestingly, installing ad blocking is harder in the mobile though (requires a separate browser), than in the desktop browser (just another extension).

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#35
post #29
post #18

Somehow in 18 years and billions of dollars of revenue, Google has not figured out another way to make real money.

They have not figured out how to diversify (in any way that makes the company safe from a decline in search ads), thats their failing, they make boatloads of money.

I actually think they have found tons of ways to diversify. Google Glass, Voice, and Wave could have been truly revolutionary if they had polished, simplified, and mass-marketed them properly.

Google's problem is that they're terrible product designers and they never truly focus on a product the way other companies do. Are you genuinely delighted by any Google product these days? I'm having a hard time thinking what they create that even could be delightful (that regular consumers can buy, anyway).

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#36
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google has context. You search for something, chances are you're interested in buying it. Placing an ad in the search page has better ROI for advertisers. At Facebook you can build loyalty which is a different beast altogether.

So is it safe to say that Google is better for acquiring hot leads, while Facebook is better for branding?

Yes - also important to remember that Facebook has Instagram too, which is a nicer (imo) ad format and self selects for more affluent users.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#37
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has infinitely better targeting and signal about their users.

This is reliant on people continuing to use Facebook as their primary social networking tool.

In my environment (Netherlands) I'd say that WhatsApp is now the primary social networking tool for most people. I wonder how that is going to work out for Facebook.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#38
post #2

As much as people like to consider Google revenu sources very diverse or dream about future of other Google bets, Google is mostly an advertisement company heavily relying on their search business. It's obvious that Facebook has a better position for growth and adding new channels for their ads business. I can see Facebook share of online advertising grow in the next couple of years.

Facebook has social data. Google knows a whole heck of a lot more than that. Adsense, GMail, Analytics, and hosting fonts for a ton of websites, for example are sources of data that provide a pretty good deal of insight as to who you are and what you are insterested in.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#39
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People spend most of their time on Facebook products, especially on mobile - for example, in HK's public transits, it is not uncommon if you find over 70% of people near you are actually using Facebook products at the same time (FB/WhatsApp/Instagram)

I reckon if Facebook would add search to WhatsApp, it could hurt Google's ad income quite a bit. Right now you have to close WhatsApp to start a search. And then come back when you have found the answer. There is potential for Facebook for smooth search integration in its products and take bigger piece of the search-ad pie.

Now on Tap does that for pretty much any application though, if you've got Marshmallow.

Re: Google’s stock slid after report on search ad decline

#40
post #38
post #2

As much as people like to consider Google revenu sources very diverse or dream about future of other Google bets, Google is mostly an advertisement company heavily relying on their search business. It's obvious that Facebook has a better position for growth and adding new channels for their ads business. I can see Facebook share of online advertising grow in the next couple of years.

Facebook has social data. Google knows a whole heck of a lot more than that. Adsense, GMail, Analytics, and hosting fonts for a ton of websites, for example are sources of data that provide a pretty good deal of insight as to who you are and what you are insterested in.

Facebook pixel is becoming more and more common, so they will shortly have the same data plus verified and not inferred data from their social channels.

edit: now that I think of it facebook will be shortly in a position of being able to de-anonimize the internet. imagine selling that ad-space.

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