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Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#31

Post by hourislate »

cylinder wrote: post #22
hourislate wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work is over rated. Just look at it as early retirement and consider yourself lucky.

Someone should go tell all those sweatshop workers and coal miners that work is "overrated" and that they should all just retire early!

It seems no one has a sense of humor.

But seriously, when I was a young guy I learned quickly that we are all temporary. One day your working the next day you could be on out on your ass. That's when I started living like I could be on the street tomorrow. Happily I can say that I was never without work but as a result of living with what I need and not what I want I amassed a small fortune and financial freedom.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#32

Post by __derek__ »

joobus wrote: post #30
kevenwang0531 wrote: post #16

News media ought to pay more attention to the confidence intervals associated with these metrics. Uncertainty is always present in statistics and the revisions to these numbers rarely get reported (it was reported in this case to fit the tone of the story). News articles like these have a powerful psychological effect on the public, so shouldn't the media do a more responsible job by saying "oh by the way, it's 38,00…

> For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment from the establishment survey is on the order of plus or minus 115,000. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm So 38,000 +- 115,000. In other words, they don't really know if employment went up or down.

Thanks for digging that up. I thought it was around 100,000 and was about to go look for the actual number.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#33

Post by MaysonL »

For a bit of perspective, see "Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month"[0]

Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month

Year Annual (000s) Worst Month (000s)

1984 3,880 128

1994 3,851 200

1983 3,458 -308

1997 3,408 -39

1988 3,242 94

1999 3,177 107

1987 3,153 171

1998 3,047 124

1996 2,825 -18

1993 2,817 -49

2014 2,5851 142

2005 2,506 67

1985 2,502 124

2013 2,331 84

2012 2,236 88

1995 2,159 -16

2006 2,085 2

2011 2,083 70

2004 2,033 32

12014 is the hiring pace through August.

[0]http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/09/payroll-employment...

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#35

Post by burfog »

dforrestwilson1 wrote: post #5

The unemployment rate is not a good metric. The labor force participation rate is more inclusive, and declined for the 2nd month in a row. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/business/economy/jobs-repo... Furthermore the quality of available jobs appears to have declined.

What you'd really want it to separate into:

1. families with exactly one full-time job, nothing else 2. families with a full-time job and additional job(s) 3. families without a full-time job

You'd want to calculate those numbers two ways:

1. for all households 2. excluding households with all members over age 65

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#37

Post by dgemm »

kevenwang0531 wrote: post #16

News media ought to pay more attention to the confidence intervals associated with these metrics. Uncertainty is always present in statistics and the revisions to these numbers rarely get reported (it was reported in this case to fit the tone of the story). News articles like these have a powerful psychological effect on the public, so shouldn't the media do a more responsible job by saying "oh by the way, it's 38,00…

I have often thought the same thing - they are essentially reporting on something with a quite low signal to noise ratio, but they don't know what that is. And yet many important decisions are based on the monthly numbers.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#38

Post by internaut »

MaysonL wrote: post #33

For a bit of perspective, see "Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month"[0] Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month Year Annual (000s) Worst Month (000s) 1984 3,880 128 1994 3,851 200 1983 3,458 -308 1997 3,408 -39 1988 3,242 94 1999 3,177 107 1987 3,153 171 1998 3,047 124 1996 2,825 -18 1993 2,817 -49 2014 2,5851 142 2005 2,506 67 1985 2,502 124 2013 2,331 84 2012 2,236 88 1995 2,159 -16 2006 2,085 2 2011 2,083…

The pace of hiring has halved since 1984?
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