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Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

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Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#31
post #27
post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

> But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. Why? Apple is possibly the world's most effective company at synthesizing industrial design and software in premium devices sold to consumers. Google is a web/cloud services and advertising company. The reason presumably is that you can't see what Apple is doing in public, while Google has a car that still can't drive itself in t…

They seem to frequently fail at software. iTunes is a dog, Mac OS X is getting worse and worse, the Mac App store is horrendous. iCloud is a joke.

They do nice interfaces, and iOS is great. I have no doubt they would produce an amazing luxury car with a beautiful software UI, but I do not see them morphing into a machine learning software powerhouse anytime soon, at least compared to Google. Google Now easily beats Siri and Google Maps beats Apple Maps.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#32
post #24
post #20

Apple may be developing automatic driving technology, but actually making cars seems unlikely. They mostly outsource manufacturing, after all. Apple might be working on something to take a bite out of Facebook or Google Search or Amazon's Echo. The next big thing is likely to be "you just talk to it and it does the right thing". Siri with common sense.

Facebook and Google Search are ad businesses, and looking at those businesses they're very small compared to Apple. There's also tons of competition there already and it's outside of the skillset of Apple. Apple is making a car not self-driving technology. They may develop self-driving technology, but the business will be making a finished product that they sell to customers, not licensing technology to others (which…

    >Facebook and Google Search are ad businesses, and looking at those businesses they're very small compared to Apple.
FB maybe, but Google? Back in February Google was larger than Apple in terms of market cap. As of right now Apple is back on top, $506B to Google's $491B, explain again how Google is "very small compared to Apple"?

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#34
post #17

The other depressing interpretation is that they're achieving less per dollar spent on R&D (becoming less efficient); they certainly seem to be achieving less per release of product now, so it would be consistent. Maybe there was a time when Apple got the most brilliant people wanting to work there because it was Apple; if that's no longer true, their efficiency would decrease. (Arguably the same thing happened in K-…

If their efficiency is decreasing then that's probably more related to having too many products rather than not-smart-enough people. The cost of shipping each new release roughly follows Metcalfe's law, meaning that each existing product/feature you need to support going forward makes the next release exponentially more expensive.

My hope is that the car is a front and they're secretly building arcologies, but in reality they're probably just building some shitty car.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#35
post #21

I think the ideas presented appear somewhat contradictory. I may be missing something here because the following 2 ideas seem contradictory to me. 1) Apple's secrecy 2) Apple's pivot If they're pivoting, why be secret about it? One of the reasons provided was that being public about new products could hurt current product sales. If it's an entirely new product line (ie. car), I have a hard time believing someone will…

Apple doesn't pre-announce things or do concept videos (the only exception I can think of in recent memory was announcing the Mac Pro at WWDC). Things get announced when it's a product ready to be sold. It's tough to say this is the wrong strategy considering the success they've gotten because of it. And there are plenty of counter examples from their Silicon Valley rivals who like to generate PR for blue sky researc…

Watch.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#36
post #27
post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

> But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. Why? Apple is possibly the world's most effective company at synthesizing industrial design and software in premium devices sold to consumers. Google is a web/cloud services and advertising company. The reason presumably is that you can't see what Apple is doing in public, while Google has a car that still can't drive itself in t…

For one because there is no evidence of it. Apple are secretive but at some point you have to take a car out on an actual road to see how it fares. And get government permisison to do so. The fact that Apple has done neither leads me to suspect Google is further ahead.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#37
According to this chart, Apple spent $6B in 2014 and is projected to spend just over $10B in 2016.

For comparison, in 2014 Volkswagen spent $13.5B, Samsung spent $13.4B, and Microsoft spent $10.4B. [1]

Apple has, historically, not been a big spender when it comes to research, tending to favor short-term, tightly focused research over long-term, curiosity driven research. Over the last few years their research budget has ballooned, but only in 2017 (projected) are they going to reach levels that the above companies were spending at in 2014. Has Apple's research focus changed?

Perhaps we're not seeing some monumental project in the works, although an autonomous car would be pretty big. Perhaps what we're seeing is Apple deciding to loosen the purse strings and, instead of stashing away obscene piles of money, they've loosened their research focus and now have a lot of people doing whatever the hell they want, much like MS, just because something useful might someday emerge.

Let's face it, Apple has so much money they could probably launch their own space program if they really wanted to.

[1]http://fortune.com/2014/11/17/top-10-research-development/

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#38
I’ve read a number of articles about the prospect of an Apple car but most have still left me with more questions than answers.

My main questions regarding an Apple car are the following:

1. Apple seems reluctant to chase market share at the expense of profit. The automotive industry is very well established and from my understanding operates on razor thin margins. Apple seems to be a master of the supply chain but much of this has to do with the fact that they ship such large numbers of very similar hardware. Apple doesn’t ship the most smartphones in the world but they do ship the most of a single model and this allows them to put incredible pressure on their suppliers. Does anyone expect Apple to be able to move so many cars that they would be able to put more downward pressure on suppliers than the traditional automakers?

2. If the strategy isn’t to dominate the market and thus assert downward pressure on suppliers then I would assume the strategy would be to sell a premium car that carries higher margins. Apple obviously has a well deserved reputation as a premium product within the computing/electronics space but is it a given that this would translate to the automotive market as well? I don’t particularly care for a brand’s prestige but I know this does inform many consumers’ decision making. Apple might be viewed as a premium brand compared to Samsung/Moto/Lenovo/HP/etc, but would most consumers be willing to pay a premium for an Apple car compared to a BMW or Mercedes?

3. Is there any reason that Apple’s prowess in the electronics supply chain may not translate well to the automotive supply chain? These two industries seem very different to me.

4. Apple, like almost everyone else in the tech industry, uses outsourced manufacturing for the majority of their products. While there are similar contract manufacturers in automotive, they are not nearly as large nor their use as wide spread, to my knowledge at least. Foxconn was already one of the biggest electronics manufacturers even before they started building iPhones for Apple, I don’t think a Foxconn equivalent exists in the automotive world. I would imagine this may present problems for someone like Apple that doesn’t plan on actually building their own cars, or do they?

5. There is considerable risk when launching a car model, even for the established players, I would assume the potential risk for a newcomer would be even greater. Newly introduced cars seem to suffer from more serious and more widespread problems than newly launched smartphones/computers do, although those often suffer problems as well. Does the potential exist that problems encountered with a newly introduced Apple car may carry over to negative perceptions about the broader Apple brand? It seems enormously perilous to me to risk your brand reputation on one specific product line that traditionally tends to be both very low margin and suffer from frequent defects.

I’m curious what others may think of my concerns or if anyone knows of articles that have gone into more depth with regards to my concerns.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#39
post #9
post #7

There's so much Apple could be doing that are a more natural progression from their existing product lines. They could take inspiration from some of their previous consumer efforts to target entirely new product lines, such as a camera (QuickTake), printer (LaserWriter), or game console (Pippin). A modern version of all these would sell out. Or they could reintroduce their enterprise/business products, such as XServe…

One of the biggest challenges that Apple has, is what would actually be meaningful? I loved a comment I saw recently that highlighted that a 10 digit revenue item can be counted as largely insignificant to a company the size of Apple. So, if you start looking at product spaces that have: 1. A meaningful market size (ideally all consumers) 2. A price that is significant 3. Enhances the brand image as chic/cool 4. Is g…

I'd like to see them get into construction. They could build residential or office space with amazing attention to detail. I'm imagining the level of design that usually goes into a car interior applied to a home or hotel. There are already builders in China exploring mostly prefab highrises - so imagine if Apple started building a few thousand luxury buildings a year and were able to get the costs down.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#40
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automotive is a low margin, high liability industry. I think Google is approaching this correctly in staying out of the hardware (for the most part.) Apple developing a full car that has to meet x & y regulation from every single different country could end up being a big disaster. Tesla isn't even profitable and has a cash burn that makes a winter furnace seem tame. I don't see how Apple can escape that reality too.…

Tesla makes 25% margin on their cars.

But still loses money
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