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Cheap Solar Power

keith.seas.harvard.edu

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Re: Cheap Solar Power

#31

Post by angli »

amalantony06 wrote: post #27

Given that Solar power is the fundamental source of energy leading to petroleum based energy (starting with photosynthesis), it's surprising that we still rely on petroleum to the degree we do today. In 100 years this would perhaps be something people would find shocking (like how we are shocked today at how mainstream slavery used to be 150 odd years ago). Solar Energy is unlimited, cheap and clean. My guess would b…

It's not as surprising as you'd think. The basic problem is energy density and availability.

Human beings don't directly photosynthesize for clear reasons. Solar power isn't available constantly and is too diffuse to power us in real-time. Instead, we eat plants (or animals, which is just another layer of indirection) that have photosynthesized over time and stored up that energy - we then convert that energy so we can metabolize it as needed.

The same thing is happening with petroleum. It's denser and more flexible than the sun. These are real constraints that have led us to use these sources of energy and prioritize them. They're not insurmountable - I think as prices fall we'll see more research into storage, I believe panel efficiency is going up - but the path of least resistance is a powerful force.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#32

Post by beat »

tvchurch wrote: post #2

"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…

In other words, he's being a scientist, and adjusting his conclusions to suit the available evidence.

Which, to people not familiar with the scientific method, is shocking.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#33

Post by akiselev »

amalantony06 wrote: post #27

Given that Solar power is the fundamental source of energy leading to petroleum based energy (starting with photosynthesis), it's surprising that we still rely on petroleum to the degree we do today. In 100 years this would perhaps be something people would find shocking (like how we are shocked today at how mainstream slavery used to be 150 odd years ago). Solar Energy is unlimited, cheap and clean. My guess would b…

Is it really surprising that burning millions of years of conveniently stored, geologically formed chemical energy is easier than harvesting solar power using complex semiconductor tech? We've been burning things for energy for hundreds of thousands of years. We've had semiconductors for less than a century.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#34

Post by Joof »

beat wrote: post #32
tvchurch wrote: post #2

"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…

In other words, he's being a scientist, and adjusting his conclusions to suit the available evidence. Which, to people not familiar with the scientific method, is shocking.

Most people are more familiar with the standard argument of 'nuh-uh' when things change.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#35

Post by beat »

amalantony06 wrote: post #27

Given that Solar power is the fundamental source of energy leading to petroleum based energy (starting with photosynthesis), it's surprising that we still rely on petroleum to the degree we do today. In 100 years this would perhaps be something people would find shocking (like how we are shocked today at how mainstream slavery used to be 150 odd years ago). Solar Energy is unlimited, cheap and clean. My guess would b…

150 years ago, slavery was much more economically viable - a lot of industrial-scale farming and mining was still purely manual labor. Machinery replaced most of the jobs once done by slaves.

Likewise, for the past century or more, fossil fuels were the cheapest source of concentrated energy by far. That's about to stop.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#36

Post by pyoung »

dmvaldman wrote: post #17

So if this has the potential to change the future energy economy, what are some good investments to make now? Should I be looking at SolarCity, who sell the panels, or the energy companies like Sempra, PG&E, Edison? Something else?

Probably the safest 'investment' you can make is to put panels on your roof (assuming your utility is supportive, barring that wait for batteries to get cheap/good). Solar stocks are a minefield at the moment (largely thanks to SunEd[1]). There are also things called yield co's which are holding companies for energy projects that largely focus on dividends. They are kinda like REITs. But it is worth mentioning that these are relatively new investment vehicles, and they still share some risk with the parent company[2]

[1] http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-sunedison-collapse-201... [2] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sunedison-inc-yieldco-idUS...

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#37

Post by BatFastard »

Could this be a solution in the EU's problem of bringing jobs and wealth to North Africa? Thereby encouraging immigrants to stay in their homeland?

The Sahara has some of the Sunniest sky's in the world. Maybe its time to spend a few hundred billion and build those solar plants in North Africa.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#38

Post by ZeroGravitas »

danielweber wrote: post #21
beat wrote: post #18

That's fascinating. I especially like where he's going on the cost of synthetic gasoline. I'm a little iffy on it (what's the source for CO2 by the ton? Atmosphere?), but if sufficiently cheap solar electricity can generate gasoline straight from the air at a price that rivals fossil fuel, it both solves the storage problem (gasoline is wonderful high density storage), and makes banning fossil fuel via regulation an…

I always ask about synthetic fuels as an alternative to electric vehicles and have never gotten a good answer on it. We already have a huge liquid fuel distribution network built up. Why re-invent the wheel?

EVs are simply better, e.g. lack of local pollution, higher efficiency, simpler. Synthetic fuels may have a place for airplanes, long distance trucking, demand management and long term energy storage though

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#39

Post by thrownaway2424 »

When will this "duck pricing" actually trickle down to consumers? I'm on a PG&E rate plan that charges me an incredible $0.75/kWh during the afternoons of selected days. According to the figures in the CAISO paper, these are the hours of least net demand.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#40

Post by btilly »

LanguageGamer wrote: post #29
tvchurch wrote: post #2

"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…

To what extend can the decreases in cost be attributed to the subsidies? The subsidies shift the demand curve enough to incentivize R+D... or is my Econ 101 viewpoint missing something?

Supporters of the subsidies will claim 100% of the credit. Opponents will claim it would have happened regardless. Both sides will put forth impressive looking studies proving their case.

My belief is that it wouldn't have happened nearly this fast without both subsidies, and a widespread awareness under investors that there are going to be government incentives for a huge renewable market. But figuring out the amount is impossible.

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