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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#31

Post by impy »

forgetsusername wrote: post #19
perbu wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical…

> There is a Dutch study which concludes the following You should probably link to the study. > 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. 3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I gues…

Took me a little bit of searching to actually find the source, and to call it a study is a bit an overstatement, however here are some links:

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat... [A blogpost about the study]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKP... [The study/survey]

http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm [Interactive graph]

And as bonus a link to the Tesla Roadster battery study: http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Batte...

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#32

Post by arethuza »

pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..."

Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#34

Post by JoeAltmaier »

arethuza wrote: post #32
pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..." Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

Its pretty much assumed the rate of accident is proportional to the driving miles. Does that comment mean, because of the limited range, electric vehicles have smaller exposure to accident risk? I guess a bicycle would do even better then.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#35

Post by pessimizer »

forgetsusername wrote: post #19
perbu wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical…

> There is a Dutch study which concludes the following You should probably link to the study. > 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. 3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I gues…

https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%2250%2C000%20mi...

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#36

Post by pessimizer »

madaxe_again wrote: post #17
steve19 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost? Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and t…

Orders of magnitude doesn't mean 1000x - just 10x is enough. As to fracking - the wheels have already fallen off, low oil prices forced a production hiatus, stop/start is inefficient and costly, and you need only look at the headlong rush in the UK that kinda petered out to get an idea of where fracking is going - nowhere. The fossil sector is in big, big trouble - this chaotic oscillator will not stop until the mark…

> Orders of magnitude doesn't mean 1000x - just 10x is enough.

That's "order" of magnitude, not "orders."

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#37

Post by arethuza »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #34
arethuza wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..." Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

Its pretty much assumed the rate of accident is proportional to the driving miles. Does that comment mean, because of the limited range, electric vehicles have smaller exposure to accident risk? I guess a bicycle would do even better then.

What I meant was that discussions of vehicle safety always seem to start with assuming you are in an accident - what if some kinds of vehicles are more or less likely to be in accidents (all other things being equal).

NB I have no idea what the answer is and I've driven everything from large(ish) SUVs to the old style minis.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#38

Post by ZeroGravitas »

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

> That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related.

It probably doesn't. Already today operators of taxi and bus fleets are doing the sums on full electric vehicles and deciding to spend more up front to save over the long term. Generally lower fuel and maintenance costs are cited as why they can afford to spend more on the vehicle. Possibly these multi-million dollar deals are signed without sufficient due-diligince by people who run vehicle fleets as a full-time job, but it seem more likely they know what they're doing.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#39

Post by cowmix »

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads.

My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new.

Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#40

Post by blisterpeanuts »

arethuza wrote: post #32
pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..." Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

No, the real test is how survivable the vehicle is in a collision. Probability of suffering an accident is a separate discussion.

If your family is T-boned in an intersection by a drunk driver who ran a red light, are you going to say, "Well, at least the odds of that happening were very small, since she rarely drives!"

No, you're going to be dealing with serious injuries or possibly deaths and you're going to be saying, "I wish they'd been in a larger vehicle that was more survivable."

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