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The future of computing: After Moore's law

economist.com

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Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#31
While "cloud" may be a big part of the future of computing, I think the relationship painted between that and the end of Moore's law is tenuous at best.

I believe a more plausible link exists between the end of Moore's law and the rise of open hardware as explained in this article:

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1321796

TL;DR

If eight year old hardware is almost as fast as today's hardware, there is ample time to reverse engineer competitive open hardware.

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#32
post #26
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to what? What does ordinary code mean? VLIW has been around for a while (Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example) and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code").

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016.

All VLIW does is move a lot of on-chip logic off-chip into the compiler. This only works for a small set of computing tasks - which is why the closest thing we have to VLIW today lives in GPUs. And why Itanium was nicknamed Itanic.

It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't optimise in advance, the speed advantage turns into a speed penalty.

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#33
post #26
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to what? What does ordinary code mean? VLIW has been around for a while (Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example) and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code").

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

VLIW is just a way of achieving instruction level parallelism. That 9:1 speed-up is vs a single issue, in-order core, which PCs haven't used since the mid-90s. Modern superscalar processors can not only handle multiple instructions in parallel, but extensions like AVX allow very wide instructions for embarrassingly parallel things like matrix operations. We've probably achieved 95% of the theoretical speedup from amazing VLIW.

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#34
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016. All VLIW does is move a lot of on-chip logic off-chip into the compiler. This only works for a small set of computing tasks - which is why the closest thing we have to VLIW today lives in GPUs. And why Itanium was nicknamed Itanic. It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't…

[deleted]

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#35
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do we have any ideas what the limits are on the algorithm side of things? I've always believed that humans do not have the ability to program things smarter than themself, because we do not understand our own intelligence, so we have no way to reproduce it. At the time, I said the only alternative I can think of is make random permutations and pick the best one, and go from there. But I said this as a ridiculous su…

(Totally self-promoting here) I did a lot of work along this line in my PhD -- stochastic architectures for probabilstic computation. http://ericjonas.com/pages/circuits.html There's an increasing amount of interest in this space.

Sounds like really neat work. It reminds me of an idea I've toyed with just a little: you know how chemical reaction networks can compute? E.g. https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/programming-... Last I heard, they'd used DNA strand displacement in vitro for simple neural network stuff. So I wondered how practical it'd be to encode a Bayes net as a reaction network, with the Gibbs sampling done directly by thermodynamics. This wouldn't compete with the sort of thing we do in silicon; maybe it'd work out for tiny diagnostic systems in synthetic bio? With less overhead than the neural nets.

(Well, that took more space than I wanted. I downloaded one of your circuits papers for a gander.)

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#36
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016. All VLIW does is move a lot of on-chip logic off-chip into the compiler. This only works for a small set of computing tasks - which is why the closest thing we have to VLIW today lives in GPUs. And why Itanium was nicknamed Itanic. It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't…

IIRC the 9:1 worked for the IBM 370 instruction set on general purpose code. Kemal was across the hall from me at Watson and explained it.

Yes, the compiler is involved. So what?

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#37
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016. All VLIW does is move a lot of on-chip logic off-chip into the compiler. This only works for a small set of computing tasks - which is why the closest thing we have to VLIW today lives in GPUs. And why Itanium was nicknamed Itanic. It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't…

> Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016.

I think it's unfair to generalize from VLIW to everything published 20+ years ago. Plenty of the things discovered back then, or earlier, are still applicable and in production today. Your compiler picked most of its low hanging fruit ages ago. Lots of PhD theses are rehashing old ideas, often unknowingly. Results are results, what matters more is whether there's a relevant context, as you've highlighted.

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#38
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

VLIW is just a way of achieving instruction level parallelism. That 9:1 speed-up is vs a single issue, in-order core, which PCs haven't used since the mid-90s. Modern superscalar processors can not only handle multiple instructions in parallel, but extensions like AVX allow very wide instructions for embarrassingly parallel things like matrix operations. We've probably achieved 95% of the theoretical speedup from ama…

So, just when did we get that 8:1 or 9:1 speedup without having the processor clocks run faster. IBM was doing speculative execution, branch prediction, out of order execution, and vector instructions also in the 1990s. There were careful instruction level traces of the advantages and speedups. Of course, vector instructions are for special purpose code, e.g., the ubiquitous inner products in linear algebra, probability, and digital filtering, but 9:1 was on general purpose code.

IIRC, the instruction traces didn't show 9:1 or anywhere near that.

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#39
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Citing a paper from the mid 90s isn't a credible answer in 2016. All VLIW does is move a lot of on-chip logic off-chip into the compiler. This only works for a small set of computing tasks - which is why the closest thing we have to VLIW today lives in GPUs. And why Itanium was nicknamed Itanic. It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't…

> It's a non-starter for general computing because as soon as you start dealing with real-time conditions the compiler can't optimise in advance, the speed advantage turns into a speed penalty.

"Real time"? What?

Re: The future of computing: After Moore's law

#40
post #26
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to what? What does ordinary code mean? VLIW has been around for a while (Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example) and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code").

> Compared to what? A single core processor, of course. > What does ordinary code mean? Say, simple random sample of all the other code being run. > VLIW has been around for a while Yup. I never claimed otherwise. > Itanium is probably the most famous "general purpose" example Yup. > and has failed to gain traction outside of GPUs and DSP (ie not "ordinary code"). Yup. Still, yet again, over again, one more time, onc…

Both mechagodzilla and TheOtherHobbes have pretty much covered my response. The only thing I wanted to add was that you're acting incredibly defensive to essentially a request for context. The 9:1 speedup you quoted doesn't exist in a vacuum (and repeating the phrase "general purpose code" doesn't fix that.)
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