While the overrepresentation of the repeat offenders is a valid concern, I feel like this makes a big point out of a relatively small change in conclusion. Old Analysis: slightly over half were incarcerated again New Analysis: about one third are incarcerated again So regardless of how you measure it, there's an enormous relative risk of recidivism -- the general population is incarcerated at a mere 0.66% level [1] s…
Well, of course. Criminals tend to commit multiple crimes. Would you prefer a world where crimes are just randomly committed by anyone, including you and your family, with uniform distribution? If you would, you know where to start.
Kind of a cop out answer. Obviously some recidivism is caused by some people being predisposed to crime, but when some countries have recidivism rates that are half of other countries' rates, can you really claim that it explains all of it?