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Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

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Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hard part of Uber isn't the tech, it's building up the network. Two-sided marketplaces are really hard to build from scratch, when there are no competitors. They're virtually impossible once both your customers and your drivers are like "I've already had good experiences with Uber. Why would I take a chance on you?" That's why Google has an advantage over everyone else - for them it's a one -sided marketplace, th…

The answer to "Why would I take a chance on you?" is simple: "I'm cheaper." Neither Uber's passengers nor their drivers are deeply loyal. They are for the most part brought to the service by the value prop. Uber is of course an established brand, and that brand has some value, but the value is hardly infinite. A deep pocketed competitor could establish themselves.

I assume by "it's cheaper", you mean that an Uber competitor would charge their customers $X, pay out $Y (> $X) to their drivers, and subsidize $Y - $X by pouring in cash from their other products.

This sort of cross-subsidy has a poor track record when used against well-capitalized opponents. (In many situations, it's also illegal: see "dumping".) Unless you can complete wipe out the competition and force them out of business, you're pouring money down the drain, and building nothing of value with it. Bing Cashback resulted in most people doing their searching on Google, identifying what they wanted to buy, and then buying it on Bing so that Microsoft would pay them.

You get very odd arbitrage situations that basically result in funneling money straight from the corporation that's being idiotic to a savvy consumer. If a company did what you suggest, I would immediately sign up with them, along with my fiancee. We would then use the app every time we took a trip together or picked each other up. Since one of us is the driver and one is the passenger and the driver earns more than the passenger pays, we'd be making money at this company's expense every time we drove somewhere. Now imagine every carpool, group of friends, or just random strangers who setup a business to exploit this arbitrage opportunity doing that.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#292
The key words are "long term". I am concerned that these obstacles will not be overcome in "3 to 5 years":

* "Chris Urmson of Google has said that the lidar technology cannot spot potholes or humans, such as a police officer, signaling the car to stop." [1]

* "Another big problem for Google is the current cost of its driverless car, which is reportedly outfitted with a whopping $250,000 in equipment." [2]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car

[2] http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/21/3-reasons-g...

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answer to "Why would I take a chance on you?" is simple: "I'm cheaper." Neither Uber's passengers nor their drivers are deeply loyal. They are for the most part brought to the service by the value prop. Uber is of course an established brand, and that brand has some value, but the value is hardly infinite. A deep pocketed competitor could establish themselves.

I assume by "it's cheaper", you mean that an Uber competitor would charge their customers $X, pay out $Y (> $X) to their drivers, and subsidize $Y - $X by pouring in cash from their other products. This sort of cross-subsidy has a poor track record when used against well-capitalized opponents. (In many situations, it's also illegal: see "dumping".) Unless you can complete wipe out the competition and force them out o…

Yep.

And, just to be clear, that's what Uber does. Not in as simple and straightforward a way as you're suggesting, but at least large fractions of the time, it pays its drivers more than its passengers pay it (for example: it's constantly giving me $10 coupons. It has sign-up bonuses and income guarantees for drivers. Etc.) Of course, it's spending investment money, not money from its other non-existent businesses.

So if you and your fiancee want to try this business, you can do it right now with Uber. Or Lyft. I suspect you will find that despite the fact that there is theoretically a fair amount of money on the table here, they've made it obnoxious enough to get that you won't bother with it.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#294
post #213
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Uber may still wind up on the losing end of a lawsuit about pushing drivers to take on vehicles based on false pretenses ( Uber telling the drivers that there would be enough work to justify them financing a vehicle for Uber usage). Uber's efforts to shed itself of all liability and risk in terms of employees and assets is legendary; but they could still find themselves going up against the IRS on the question of…

> Uber telling the drivers that there would be enough work to justify them financing a vehicle for Uber usage It seems incredibly unwise to finance a $20,000 USD vehicle hedging on some third party (of which you have zero control over) to provide enough for you to pay it through.

Generally, if you tell someone that taking on a debt obligation is a condition of doing business with you and make representations to the effect that they will be able to earn enough to meet that obligation based on their projected earnings from your contractual agreement with them that would be considered an implied contract.

If you then manipulate things such that they are effectively unable to meet their obligations because you are jerking them around they are certainly going to be able to find a lawyer who will take their case. Particularly if you were referring them to the auto-dealership and pre-qualifying them for financing.

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