291–300 of 965 posts
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Cheap tokens only benefits SaaS that depends on AI. Otherwise, cheap tokens means it is only more cost effective than it already is to cut out the SaaS and build instead of buy.
Yeah maybe *both" sass and training companies are wiped, imagine that!
I am afraid — if Chinese models go mainstream it has a clear way of pushing its narrative way beyond its otherwise borders. More like a Trojan horse it is for the Chinese. Here is a quick example of how Chinese deepseeks agent works kn its underlying model) when asked a tough question https://x.com/jinen83/status/2079406993979383902?s=46&t=D7hQ...
> It’s striking the extent to which Claude Code and Codex are proving to be quite sticky; whichever harness you start working with is likely to be the one you stick with, and that figures to be even more the case with non-technical users. My experience has been quite the opposite. I was using Claude Code almost exclusively this winter/spring and swapped to Codex earlier this summer. It took no time whatsoever to swit…
The people who are most afraid of Chinese models are the VCs who poured into Anthropic and OpenAI at astronomically high valuations. Anthropic is valued at $1.2T and OpenAI is targeting $850B. These astronomical valuations were built on the premise that these labs would generate massive profits from premium API pricing, but the Chinese labs are completely undercutting this strategy by releasing excellent open models…
The (quite excellent) article discusses several of your points. If you haven't read it, I recommend it. - Commodity market profitability is determined by marginal cost of production. LLMs have marginal cost; traditional software does not. - Models are not free. Downloading them is free. Running them is not. This has manufacturing economics, not software economics; the idea that they are "free" is an economic category…
I could see AI ending up the same way where the customer captures most of the value rather than the companies. Open weight models are what make that kind of competition possible.
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Imagine how cool it would be if actual competition prevents Anthropic or OpenAI from becoming an Apple/Google kind of cartel. I don’t care if it comes from China or not.
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Using a Chinese LLM will not put a Marxist under your bed.
Did you know Gemini is shockingly bad at French poetry? Hasn’t stopped me for using it for all other tasks though.
Frontier labs that thought they could Rupoor[0] the entire creative class, transferring the coercion premium of copyright ownership from Hollywood to themselves. In their eyes, copyright should not apply to them, but also their models should have exactly the same value as a copyrighted work.
Stratechery also argues the US should explicitly make training fair use and forbid terms of service that prohibit distillation. I'm in support of the latter, but NOT the former, even though I normally hate copyright. My reasoning is primarily that copyright is one of the few legal paths available for a rando to go and put the work of an AI frontier lab in legal jeopardy. In the EU and Japan, such legal action has already been foreclosed by similar law. And while free distillation would obviously be preferable, it's also much more of a legal long-shot. Getting America to do anything that even smells like taking property away from the powerful is impossible[1] - it's our zeroth amendment. But we can at least hack the property laws that currently exist to cause problems for the frontier labs.
And, to be clear, if distillation is OK but training is not fair use, distillation is still OK. The output of an AI model is never copyrightable, because copyright only protects the human element. Essentially, this would say "don't train on humans, but absolutely rip off and steal the shit out of other AI labs and give it to the rest of us."
[0] In the Legend of Zelda series, Rupoor is anti-money - collecting it decreases the amount of money you own. I am using it to mean "turn someone's asset into a liability".
[1] Given that America was literally created to protect a wealthy land/slave owner class from disenfranchisement, either from above or below, and the last time we did this we literally had to fight a civil war against that same owner class that installed a new owner class that has largely remained today
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Ben's article "distills" down to 2 reasons that US frontier labs shouldn't be "afraid": 1. US frontier lab unit economics are better 2. US frontier labs are moving up the stack making tools that are "stickiness" and will prevent users from switching. For 1...he doesn't provide any evidence for US lab unit economics being better...the major input to unit economics is electricity...which is cheaper in China. And buildi…
Cost of electricity isn’t a long term advantage in my opinion. Private companies will figure it out. What matters most is $/completed task. It does seem like OpenAI and Anthropic are winning here even with worse electricity rates. Perhaps it is made up by the efficiency of Nvidia and Broadcom chips, which China can’t get in mass. I do think that OpenAI and Anthropic are moving up in stickiness. My company has rallied…
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How exhausting.
Why? Why is this not a concern?
I am afraid — if Chinese models go mainstream it has a clear way of pushing its narrative way beyond its otherwise borders. More like a Trojan horse it is for the Chinese. Here is a quick example of how Chinese deepseeks agent works kn its underlying model) when asked a tough question https://x.com/jinen83/status/2079406993979383902?s=46&t=D7hQ...