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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#291

Post by dansquizsoft »

merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects

How's that talent been working out for them the last few years?

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#292

Post by arcfour »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #285
wyager wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a valid explanation if they hadn't totally oversold and underdelivered on "apple intelligence". In reality, this explanation is just cope

> this explanation is just cope I'm not saying they played 5D chess. Maybe they got lucky. But they're coming out of this infrastructure boom with the second-highes P/E ratio in the Magnificent 7 [1], dividend intact, and tens of billions of cash on balance sheet unburned (and their stock and balance sheet unincumbered by new debt or stock sales). [1] https://dividend.watch/lists/magnificent-7-stocks

But it seems likely that in the coming years, people will expect Apple's products to include the latest cutting edge AI (I don't mean useless AI shoved into every possible thing, I mean something closer to a useful Siri). Giving everyone else a 10+ year head start on you is not a good position to be in.

If you choose to outsource your AI to OpenAI/Anthropic/whomever, now you're beholden to another (risky), and for a critical feature of your ecosystem that your customers have grown accustomed to and to expect. And it's not just that they might jack up prices on you, but they can just... get acquired, or go bankrupt, or fall behind on model development...

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#293

Post by dansquizsoft »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #284
merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> This is why I think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company I think the more companies there are, the better. Having 3 top labs competing, with 2 more trailing is better for consumers than having a monopoly/duopoly in goog or goog vs. the world. There'll be pressure on innovation, cost, availability and so on.

2 top labs...

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#294

Post by jpkw »

cj wrote: post #111
anukin wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much is, at this point. Spcx is oversubscribed.

Source

there are plenty of sources reporting this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/spacex-ip... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-ipo-running-...

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#295

Post by benterix »

dansquizsoft wrote: post #291
merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects How's that talent been working out for them the last few years?

As it happens in large orgs, with mixed results. The biggest irony being the whole Transformer architecture being actually conceived at Google, only to be implemented as a product/service by another company.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#296

Post by benterix »

lelanthran wrote: post #271
merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west. It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that the…

While you're probably right, reading your comment from a consumer perspective it makes me think how much we've normalized bait & switch.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#297

Post by LadyCailin »

merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

No, this is why anti trust regulation should be created and/or enforced. It’s insane to me that the “free market” simps don’t understand that you cannot have a free market without regulation. If you get rid of these regulations, you end up with corporate socialism, which is the absolute worst form of economy.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#298

Post by logicchains »

merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

>I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects.

You might as well say the same about GCP vs AWS. At the end of the day, in spite of how much superior engineering prowess it has, Google still treats its customers like it views them as a steaming, fly-covered pile of crap. This reflects just as much in Gemini as in their other products; after their initial competitive Gemini 2.5 Pro release, they just kept dumbing it down and reducing quality of service while charging the the same amount, trying to pull a bait-and-switch, and with their latest Gemini Flash release they're charging customers even more for a worse product. No amount of engineering or hardware can overcome such a customer-hostile corporate culture.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#299

Post by logicchains »

lelanthran wrote: post #271
merelydev wrote: post #266

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west. It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that the…

>It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that they need to show 10x - 100x exit for the investors.

If this was true, Alphabet wouldn't currently be charging more for a worse product than OpenAI and Anthropic.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#300

Post by dofm »

mschuster91 wrote: post #290
dofm wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was wondering about this the other week. Is there a chart, somewhere, like a family tree, of what the Apple and Microsoft stock "ordinary millionaires" went on to do?

Gabe Newell and Mike Harrington of early-ish Microsoft went on to found and fund Valve.

Yeah — actually if you google there are a few "where are they now?" things. A few VCs etc.
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