291–300 of 458 posts
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Personally, I’m just exhausted. They are not obligated to be truthful here, so the entire thing is interpreted based on vibes. If you are an AI booster, this is proof that the demand is there; if you aren’t, you’re baffled at where these numbers are coming from.
i would assume investors giving billions of dollars have done their due diligence and not base it off vibes...
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I think lying about their numbers now is risky if they're planning on an IPO this year - the real figures will come out in the S-1, and investors don't like untrustworthy companies. Update: this inspired a note on my blog: https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/29/anthropic/
> (Also in Axios today is an anonymously sourced note that "An AI consultant tells Axios one of their clients recently spent half a billion dollars in a single month after failing to put usage limits on Claude licenses for employees" - times that by 12 and you get an extra $6 billion in annualized run-rate!) This one client, then, is 12.8% of Anthropic's run-rate revenue? That does not exactly fill me with confidence…
If they really did count that one customer as $6B it means they've gone from $30B in April to a mere $41B in May.
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i would assume investors giving billions of dollars have done their due diligence and not base it off vibes...
I seriously doubt that anyone is doing much of a due diligence here. They are either counting on others to do it and just follow along OR investing some more money to keep this thing alive enough to go through the IPO. ARR seems like a interesting concept which hides away the concrete details and is counting on a futuristic possible commitment especially for companies at this early stages. The crucial detail is proba…
Anthropic has a great product, but what's going on in the stock market is astonishing. Companies waiting to be valued at a trillion dollars before going public? (I'm writing this comment with the assumption that they will go public soon and the valuation will be higher than this $965 billion dollar private valuation) The stock market used to be a place for companies to raise money from investors. But that isn't what…
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I think lying about their numbers now is risky if they're planning on an IPO this year - the real figures will come out in the S-1, and investors don't like untrustworthy companies. Update: this inspired a note on my blog: https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/29/anthropic/
> (Also in Axios today is an anonymously sourced note that "An AI consultant tells Axios one of their clients recently spent half a billion dollars in a single month after failing to put usage limits on Claude licenses for employees" - times that by 12 and you get an extra $6 billion in annualized run-rate!) This one client, then, is 12.8% of Anthropic's run-rate revenue? That does not exactly fill me with confidence…
im really not sure why he keeps parroting on about this. its all irrelevant frankly. companies play games. non-gaap revenue recognition, adjusted operating income.... boo-ya.
wait for the somewhat official doc's to come out, then its worth talking about.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think lying about their numbers now is risky if they're planning on an IPO this year - the real figures will come out in the S-1, and investors don't like untrustworthy companies. Update: this inspired a note on my blog: https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/29/anthropic/
> (Also in Axios today is an anonymously sourced note that "An AI consultant tells Axios one of their clients recently spent half a billion dollars in a single month after failing to put usage limits on Claude licenses for employees" - times that by 12 and you get an extra $6 billion in annualized run-rate!) This one client, then, is 12.8% of Anthropic's run-rate revenue? That does not exactly fill me with confidence…
As an anecdote, Github is changing their copilot plan to usage based billing next month. They released a tool that allows their users to estimate what their bills will look like under the new plan based on their past usage. There are some screenshots online from users showing their plans will go from $40/month to $3-5k/month. I imagine this is happening everywhere. These tools absolutely can do more than they were capable of just six months ago. But if the true costs are as high as it appears, folks are going to be much more judicious with how they use them moving forward.
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Is it qualified at all? Or can you measure anything and multiply it through to get whatever number you want at the end? Along the lines of "in the 4.75 hours starting at 02:35 yesterday we collected invoices worth $X so our run-rate revenue is now $Y"?
Collecting invoices is cash accounting, whereas revenue is realized only over the length of the contract and doesn’t care when the customer pays. (Of course sometimes you have a short-term contract including for professional services and such, but not to the point where a single day would likely be particularly inflated.)
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Pretty unfathomable growth. I'm pretty sure I listened to Dario saying something along the lines of keeping Anthropic on track for 10x ARR growth (in December) and thinking that that was a bonkers idea for a $9B run-rate company, and now it's looking like that might be an underestimate ...
Personally, I’m just exhausted. They are not obligated to be truthful here, so the entire thing is interpreted based on vibes. If you are an AI booster, this is proof that the demand is there; if you aren’t, you’re baffled at where these numbers are coming from.
> They are not obligated to be truthful here