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Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

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Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#291

Many commenters seem to be appealing to an almost religious defense of present political borders. That attitude is untenable: there is nothing sacred about national boundaries, they are mere political artifacts like rules, regulations, tax codes, etc. If the people want to change them, they absolutely have the right to do so. https://unifixion.substack.com/p/political-boundaries-are-no...

If it is untenable for a country to defend its boundaries, why is it tenable for you to lock your house?

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#292

An independent Alberta would face the Dutch disease effect crashing the employment figures, wages and viability of everything except oil and gas. At least a 10% jump in unemployment in two years. 51st state with the USD absorbing the excess productivity however? It comes down to the negotiations. Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibi…

Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibit other independence movements), which is what motivates the Albertan independence movement. Any Albertans would hope the US to be more egalitarian. Is Alberta taxed at a higher rate than other provinces? Nothing in the top few hits on Google indicates this to be the case. And I'm not sure how the…

They're called "Equalisation payments". Certain provinces pay them, like BC, Alberta, and Ontario, and then other provinces receive them.

In 2023, the federal government spent $24.0 billion including an estimated $3.3 billion from Alberta, which has not received equalization payments since 1964/65. From 2007 to 2022, Albertans’ net contribution to federal finances was $244.6 billion, more than five times the net contribution from British Columbia or Ontario, the only other two net contributors.

Albertans’ also disproportionately contribute to the CPP. From 1981 to 2022, the amount Albertans paid into the program, over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments, was $53.6 billion, approximately six times greater than the net contribution of B.C., the only other net contributing province.

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#293
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there actually even a legal process for leaving Canada? I would assume you can't just decide to leave. EDIT: oh, there is a process. thats the Clarity Act. This seems extremely surprising - I've never heard of this sort of thing before with any other country.

Discussing separation is okay when QC threatens it - hence the clarity act. But when AB wants to do it, they are just a bunch of redneck traitors according to the rest of Canada. (Cue the "AB is nothing", "AB has no culture", folks that don't have a clue what they are talking about).

> they are just a bunch of redneck traitors according to the rest of Canada.

That's also the prevailing sentiment in much of Alberta.

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#294
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exploit the West? Thats rich and definitely a western centric short sighted viewpoint.

Many in the west certainly wouldn't agree with you now, or 100+ years ago. https://xcancel.com/DonBraid/status/1187052993788559360 This is about more than just money though. Politically the west is underrepresented and the cultural difference between the West and the rest of Canada is very significant - unless you ask folks from Ontario who have never been to AB. In my opinion, Canada is too geographically and cultur…

> Canada is too geographically and culturally diverse for a central government to have so much power.

The United States has also had this problem for a long time, imo.

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that framing you are saying that Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver should also all seek secession. Likewise, you could say that NYC and LA should singularly secede from America by that same logic. It doesn't track. There is no legal precedent. Alberta as an entity did not exist beyond Canada.

Canada is a confederation/confederacy. Ie your central government is weak and your provinces are strong. They can leave just like Quebec. Quebec has to be bribed to stay.

It's more complex than that. I know tech workers are fond of reductionism, but it is not workable here.

In order to draw the statement and comparison you just have, you have to throw out ALL legal and historical fact. And also decide that the rights of the Aboriginal land owners in Alberta mean absolutely nothing.

I don't know what it's like to be American, but I presume that not even they would be on board with wholesale land confiscations on such a massive scale. Sets a bad precedent, doesn't it?

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#296

An independent Alberta would face the Dutch disease effect crashing the employment figures, wages and viability of everything except oil and gas. At least a 10% jump in unemployment in two years. 51st state with the USD absorbing the excess productivity however? It comes down to the negotiations. Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibi…

Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibit other independence movements), which is what motivates the Albertan independence movement. Any Albertans would hope the US to be more egalitarian. Is Alberta taxed at a higher rate than other provinces? Nothing in the top few hits on Google indicates this to be the case. And I'm not sure how the…

Federal income taxes are the same in all Canadian provinces except for Quebec (as part of the abatement settlement), but Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan are large net contributors, since the higher-earning median Albertan is more affected by Canadian federal marginal tax rates. It's an exact analogue of Californian tax revenue paying for Mississippi. (If you'd like some keywords for searching, the popular term is Alberta equalization)

Under the current equalization system, Alberta last received a single Canadian dollar of direct spending in the 1964/65 fiscal year, whilst four other provinces have received over $1B annually since 2014 (Quebec, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia).

It sounds like I'm selling Albertan independence, but the fact that Ottawa aims for progressive internal redistribution is the exact same thing the US already has, as you point out. Similar figures of only receiving indirect federal returns can be stated for American net contributor states, too. It's the price of being in a large country, where in exchange you have a pooled currency and military that reduce vulnerabilities to external attackers.

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#297

The referendum is actually about having a referendum first. "Alberta to hold fall referendum on whether to have binding referendum on separating from Canada" https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-separation-r...

New Caledonia have been hesitating about independence the longest. In a referendum in 1958, they voted against independence from France. In 1987, they again voted against independence. In 1988, they voted to hold a referendum about independence in 1998. In 1998, they didn't hold that referendum, but instead voted their approval of a 20-year plan to transition to increased autonomy. In 2018, they voted against independence. In 2020, they voted against independence. In 2021, they voted against independence. In 2024, they had a crisis over disagreements about the rules about voting about independence.

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#299
post #20
post #2

And do what? There is no 'Albertan' national identity, like there is in Quebec, or Ukraine, or Taiwan or Ireland. You can't build an independent nation around something that is only wanted by a single political party, who have no fucking idea of how to include everyone who isn't a Tory on board with their project. Trace it back a bit, and you'll find that there's nothing to this that isn't driven by the Department of…

Albertan/Western Canadian identity is totally a thing, and has been around for a lot longer than this latest round of separatist sentiment. The west has been griping about unfair treatment from the federal government for over a century now, so 1) this isn't primarily driven by foreign interference and 2) it's not coming out of nowhere. Whether it's a good idea is a different question. I doubt most Albertans want to b…

Unique culture and a sense of nationhood are two entirely separate things.

This was a good Globe piece a month ago: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-alberta-has-...

Some choice quotes.

> The Wild Rose province isn’t like Scotland, Quebec, or Catalonia. Everyone can more or less agree these are “stateless nations.” Maybe you think those nations should have their own state, maybe you don’t, but they follow a well-worn political pattern. Albertan separatists, on the other hand, are trying to create a state with no nation. That does not follow a well-worn political pattern. Nobody has ever done this.

> The idea that Quebec is a nation is not divisive in Quebec, not an idea that separatists think is super and federalists think is dumb. It is basically a matter of consensus among political actors there. What they disagree on is whether the Quebec nation is better off inside or outside of the Canadian confederation.

> Who sees that in Alberta? When has any elected deputy of Alberta’s legislature, let alone literally every single one of them, loudly and publicly affirmed that on behalf of their constituents they perceive Alberta as a nation? Are there any historical instances whatsoever of outside observers seeing Albertans as a nation that would compare to such seminal documents as the Durham Report?

> Even separatist leaders use the word “nation” sparingly. The Alberta Prosperity Project’s manifesto, The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta, lives up to its title by speaking in exclusively financial terms; even then it can only refer to Alberta as a nation using somewhat sideways language. When it states that “a sovereign Alberta could become one of the lowest taxed and regulated nations in the world, rivalling jurisdictions similar to Dubai and Monaco,” it could just as easily substitute “state” for “nation.”

> It’s clear that Alberta (the place where I have lived longest in my life) is not like Ontario, any more than the Maritimes are (I also lived eight years in Dartmouth). These places are all homes to distinct cultures. But in none of those three places do we find sustained instances of diverse groups of both insiders and outsiders clearly referring to them as repositories of a national identity other than “Canadian.”

Re: Alberta to hold referendum on whether to remain in Canada

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibit other independence movements), which is what motivates the Albertan independence movement. Any Albertans would hope the US to be more egalitarian. Is Alberta taxed at a higher rate than other provinces? Nothing in the top few hits on Google indicates this to be the case. And I'm not sure how the…

They're called "Equalisation payments". Certain provinces pay them, like BC, Alberta, and Ontario, and then other provinces receive them. In 2023, the federal government spent $24.0 billion including an estimated $3.3 billion from Alberta, which has not received equalization payments since 1964/65. From 2007 to 2022, Albertans’ net contribution to federal finances was $244.6 billion, more than five times the net cont…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments

This indicates Alberta (and Ontario and BC) don't pay higher tax rates. The equalization payments just come out of the general budget.

The US isn't all that much different. Wealthy states pay more per capita because it's an income tax, not a per capita tax. Looks like ~13 states pay more than they get back, with Massachusetts paying relatively more (-$5000/person) and New Mexico recieving relatively more (+$15,000/person).

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