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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#291

Post by ahartmetz »

nozzlegear wrote: post #287
dualvariable wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flip side is that the US isn't used to fighting anything other than asymmetric warfare / insurgencies / terrorism against people who can't project force and can't really hit back. We park valuable assets out in the open on military bases and installations around the world, and don't do anything to shelter them or even move them around during a conflict because of hubris. Iran also basically just fought us to a st…

> Iran also basically just fought us to a stalemate, with an arguably long-term strategic victory going to Iran, just by being willing to absorb more punishment in the short term. Once we depleted our stocks of expensive weaponry we had to stop. We could win every fight and still lose the war. Iran had a different victory condition. All they had to do was outlast and not be completely wiped out. Trump's victory condi…

Trump seemed to think that the Iranian regime was unstable and would fall once the US killed their top ranks and applied a bit of pressure. Turns out that he was very wrong (and experts would have told him if he had bothered to ask / listen).

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#292

Post by briansm »

watwut wrote: post #166
baggy_trough wrote: post #35

[flagged]

I did not seen climate activists demand to prevent shipping of 20% of world fertilizer and to start war with Iran. They did pushed for wind and solar electricity.

We got both, so twice as good.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#293

Post by programjames »

khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

I'm sure you've at least heard what the United States' leaders have to say. To paraphrase Trump, "stopping nuclear proliferation to a group of lunatics that support terrorism". And also (still paraphrasing Trump), "the US doesn't need this as much as the rest of the world." So, perhaps this doesn't put the US ahead relative to other countries, but it puts them ahead of the counterfactual nuclear wasteland they could become.

Whether or not you believe the United States' leaders, whether or not you think there was a better way for them to achieve their goals (something something Obama deal) is up for debate. But it's very facetious to say you "can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war," when the United States' leaders have been publicly announcing it for nearly a year.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#295

Post by programjames »

mint5 wrote: post #227
billfor wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

So a win will be returning to Obama’s Iran deal? And the reason no one brings up Ukraine is because we used more interceptors in three days than were sent to Ukraine in the entire 4+ years of war. It’s a complaint that doesn’t make sense unless one is jd Vance. The difference is obvious.

Why would you think returning to Obama's Iran deal would be a win? Actually, let me word this better: how could you possibly think that anyone in the White House for the past decade would think returning to Obama's Iran deal is better than this war?

The reason it's so incredible you could think such a thing is the White House has been saying how horrible that deal was in every interview for months, and of course intermittently for a decade.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#296

Post by programjames »

tehjoker wrote: post #84
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

i dont understand why the hardliners are bad they were right. the war waged against them was threatened to be nuclear "an entire civilization will die tonight". the country threatening iran unjustly is indeed the great satan. no justification except for being egged on by our hyper aggressive expansionist apartheid proxy israel. we should pay reparations.

When the war is fought over literal nuclear weapons, you should not be so tongue-in-cheek about calling a war nuclear.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#297

Post by rurp »

opo wrote: post #290
runako wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long history of more wars from both parties Which wars were started by Democratic presidents in the last half-century?

Depends on what you call a “war” since the last time the US declared war was in WW II.. In terms of military operations, a partial list would probably include: Democrat Presidents: Bosnia, Haiti, Iran, Kosovo, Libya, Niger, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen. Republican Presidents: Afghanistan, Cambodia, Grenada, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Panama, Somalia, Syria, and Venezuela. It is outside the 50 year timeframe, but go ba…

Seems balanced when you put them in a simple list like that, so it might not be obvious that the republican started wars cost many, many orders of magnitude more lives and treasure than the tiny actions attributed to dems.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#298

Post by mindslight »

nozzlegear wrote: post #287
dualvariable wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flip side is that the US isn't used to fighting anything other than asymmetric warfare / insurgencies / terrorism against people who can't project force and can't really hit back. We park valuable assets out in the open on military bases and installations around the world, and don't do anything to shelter them or even move them around during a conflict because of hubris. Iran also basically just fought us to a st…

> Iran also basically just fought us to a stalemate, with an arguably long-term strategic victory going to Iran, just by being willing to absorb more punishment in the short term. Once we depleted our stocks of expensive weaponry we had to stop. We could win every fight and still lose the war. Iran had a different victory condition. All they had to do was outlast and not be completely wiped out. Trump's victory condi…

This is a war that even the "forever war" US military-intelligence complex had been resisting starting for decades. This really illustrates what a colossally bad idea it was.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#299

Post by tencentshill »

hendo3000 wrote: post #85

I've always rolled my eyes at inflation because clearly, it's worse than the basket of goods they use to monitor. Groceries probably get incentives to keep bread, eggs, etc. prices somewhat regulated so the inflation number is muted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Many of the inputs (farms, oil) are heavily subsidized already. Meat, milk, etc. but I'm sure they account for that in some way.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#300

Post by tencentshill »

JeremyNT wrote: post #196
bparsons wrote: post #88

Frankly, it is a miracle that inflation is this low. Markets have not fully metabolized the impact from the closure of the Persian Gulf.

I keep thinking this but... line keep going up. I've seen reporting that energy prices won't return to pre-war levels this calendar year, even assuming an immediate return to the status quo basically right now (which seems unlikely). I find the whole thing really confusing. The facts I can see with my own eyes suggest high inflation and this surely means no substantial rate cuts (which... the market has expected) if…

I should invest a non-trivial amount. That usually results in markets trending down.
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