291–298 of 298 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If they're appropriately priced, you can't win money at all, unless you have insider knowledge.
The purpose of prediction markets is to communicate insider knowledge.
Communicating insider knowledge is how the brokers legally/morally justify that business model.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know what your question is about? I would have hoped that by now it was obvious that we are talking about a _specific_ weak form of the EMH that takes friction into account? What is your whole first paragraph about? Who are you trying to convince? Where's the strawman that claimed that the strongest version of EMH that you can imagine is literally true? There's no single weak form of EMH that could be accurat…
Question is about EMH and how you expect efficiency to be achieved absent profit for collecting the information. There are 3 accepted forms of EMH. I'm talking about weak form - just price history and nothing else. E.g. formulaic alpha have demonstrable predictive value in modeling. All that to say you believe trading profits are real. Maybe you just need to learn more about what a buy side alpha quant at two sigma d…
Huh, no?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They are motivated to pick what they believe is most likely to happen. The develope their idea of what is most likely to happen for the news. The reporters use their bets to wrote stories predicting what will happen. See the loop?
Reporters have an entirely different incentive -- they're less interested in what will happen than whether or not they get eyeballs on their story.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Question is about EMH and how you expect efficiency to be achieved absent profit for collecting the information. There are 3 accepted forms of EMH. I'm talking about weak form - just price history and nothing else. E.g. formulaic alpha have demonstrable predictive value in modeling. All that to say you believe trading profits are real. Maybe you just need to learn more about what a buy side alpha quant at two sigma d…
> Question is about EMH and how you expect efficiency to be achieved absent profit for collecting the information. Huh, no?
The way you're speaking about trading in terms of technical analysis implies you have retail trading exposure and have no idea what institutional alpha quants do.
This explainer might help you understand: https://youtu.be/RpCzaEn4rnc?t=257
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The time horizon is unknown sometimes. One example event, "what will happen before GTA VI?" with markets like "China invades Taiwan" and "Jesus Christ returns." The NO for the second one is only 52c rn. Maybe that resolves if GTA VI is permanently canceled?
Yeah, those sorts of bets seem clearly bad unless there is an explicit time limit on them. Factoring in how long your capital is locked up in the bet and the opportunity cost of it being locked up has to be accounted for in determining your expected gains.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_purpose_of_a_system_is_wha...
Compare and contrast https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-obviously-the-purpo...
however, from his follow-up post https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comment...:
> When people insist on the confusing and inappropriately-strong version, I start to suspect that the confusingness is a feature, letting them smuggle in connotations that people would otherwise correctly challenge.
i find this comical because it reads like a slightly-differently-worded POSIWID argument :)