US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#291

Post by therobots927 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

And the US / Israel demonstrated that Iran has their balls in a vice.

Win some lose some.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#292

Post by sosomoxie » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC

icegreentea2 wrote: post #284

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it. The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire". Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).

Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#293

Post by jacknews » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC

What a clown show.

I'm very sure that Trump just announced the ceasefire to save face and brag that his threats worked to get the strait reopened, and the whole thing will be just a ruse to regroup for further attacks.

I can't see cooler heads in Washington agreeing to these 10 points, and Israel will certainly have something to say.

If these points are agreed, it's a catastrophic strategic defeat for the US.

They already lost most of their bases in the region (13/18 I believe), and would now have to evacuate the rest. We've learned that American military is not so mighty after all.

America's reputation as upholding a rules-based world order is in the toilet.

Iran will emerge as the dominant regional power, with global leverage and a steady extra income due to their complete and accepted control of Hormuz.

The smaller states will be scrambling to find a new international security partner, and China seems like a likely candidate.

The Petro-dollar is likely toast.

I mean if Vlad Putin himself were to direct every decision Trump has made, he could scarcely have done a better job of damaging America and disrupting the world order. Making America Grotesque Again.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#294

Post by simonh » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:50 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

So this 10 point plan that was “not good enough” according to Trump on Monday 6th April, now as the deadline looms, it’s suddenly “a workable basis” for negotiations?

Frankly if Iran get nothing more than a complete lifting of sanctions this would be a massive climb down for the US.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#295

Post by jopsen » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:51 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> is an impotent threat of attacking ships?

All the ships stuck in the Gulf probably didn't consider the threat impotent.

On the other side: what more can the US do? Target civilian infrastructure? There is no appetite for getting stuck with boots on the ground, and everyone (including Iran) knows this.

You're probably right that it won't a win for anyone. If some of the points includes removing sanctions from Iran, it might be a huge win -- for Iran, or at-least it's population.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#296

Post by squibonpig » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:51 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Asymmetric warfare shouldn't be measured on the metrics of conventional warfare. Iran can continue to cause enormous economic pain for the world without any of that.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#297

Post by PierceJoy » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:51 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> impotent threat of attacking ships

You've been paying attention to what's happened over the last few weeks and you qualify that threat as impotent? That impotent threat basically brought the rest of the world to it's knees.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#298

Post by andrepd » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> Iran is a shell of the threat it was a month ago.

That's why it is crippling the entire world's economy and demanding concessions bigger than the status quo ante bellum, with the US powerless to stop it. Because it's no threat.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#299

Post by joe_the_user » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC

Aloisius wrote: post #260

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

It doesn't seem much different. Both involve guaranteed stop of all hostilities plus payment for what you did plus keep we Strait Of Hormuz. The only difference is how the payment for the attack goes.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#300

Post by tw04 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 1:53 AM UTC

cmilton wrote: post #206

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

> If not, why would the US concede?

Because Trump is already facing a bloodbath in the midterms and his next step is either a ground war or dropping a nuke, and both of those will ensure he not only loses the midterms but has a legitimate shot at seeing the inside of a prison cell.