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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

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Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#291

Post by pasquinelli »

password54321 wrote: post #201
inaros wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses. My analysis and my comment I linked to agrees. And that is a strategic victory for Iran, Russia, China and a defeat for Israel, and the US. The worst will be the Gulf States hostages of their dueling stock pile of defense missiles running out...to which they will have to queue for, with US DOD at the front of the queue.

>a defeat for Israel False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention. They are about to annex a part of it.

> False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention.

i wonder why you think mass media attention would matter.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#292

Post by pjc50 »

kortilla wrote: post #131
pear01 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that complicated. Elect a Democrat in 2028 who will nominate a strong AG, not a useless ditherer like Garland. What a disgraceful tenure he had. If he was going to take so long to bring charges he should have just avoided it. Instead he takes 3 years to bring all these charges which naturally look like election interference and as such are paused until they choke the election away and the new justice departm…

“It’s not that complicated. Give up your principles for short term house cleaning.” People with strong political beliefs are going to turn their head to keep their side in power rather than put someone in power that will push policies they are fundamentally against. Blagojevich was not replaced by a Republican. At this point presidential elections are won by getting members of the other side to stay home. So encourag…

People who believe that rights for guns justifies electing a kleptocracy deserve the kleptocracy.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#294

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

mmooss wrote: post #255
saidnooneever wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if a ground invasion goes they will destroy oil trade and everyone is screwed. The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses.

The US would not win a ground war in Iran. Before every US war, people tend to think the US military and their $800 billion/year budget are unbeatable. But look at outcomes of significant US ground wars since WWII - only one clear victory: * Korea: Stalemate, which is still a problem now 70 years later * Vietnam: Loss * Gulf War: Victory * Afganistan: Loss, after 20 years of fighting * Iraq: Mixed results after 8 yea…

All the lost wars had very vague objectives. A war where you try to fight a military while trying to “liberate” the population in the same area basically can’t succeed. In WW2 they bombed the hell out of Japan and Germany and after the war they were the winners who set the course. They were also lucky that Germany and Japan were functioning societies that didn’t have much violent infighting. In Gulf War 1 there was a clear objective to get Iraq out of Kuwait.

All the other wars depended on installing a friendly and competent government that would take over. That is a very hard thing to do. It’s too easy to support a friendly government that’s also corrupt and incompetent.

In Iran it will be the same problem after military victory. The US doesn’t want to run the show so what’s next? Nobody knows and it will take years to see where this is going. I hope they don’t destroy too much infrastructure there so people can rebuild quickly and society goes back to some normal.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#295

Post by filoeleven »

jumpkick wrote: post #113
Bratmon wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Since you've drawn the comparison, it's worth pointing out that a notable difference is that Nancy Pelosi was not (nor was running to be) POTUS and could not have unilaterally gotten the US into a war in the middle east.

Amusingly enough, she was Speaker of the House, which means at one point she had more legitimate power to enact war than Trump ever has. The Congress must first vote to declare war, and only then can the President sign and execute it. Legitimately.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#296

Post by conception »

aucisson_masque wrote: post #286
zahlman wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

Victory or defeat as in war goal. Trump war goal are to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities, and to change the Iranian government. If he succeed, victory. Otherwise, defeat.

I think his war goal was the change the headlines away from constant evidence of child sex trafficking.

Victory I guess.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#297

Post by filoeleven »

throwa356262 wrote: post #20
sega_sai wrote: post #4

At this point, I would rather these people enrich themselves as long as they stop the war, but I am afraid they will continue doing both.

Can you be sure the war was not actually started to enrich those people?

It certainly makes more sense than any of the explanations proffered by the regime so far.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#298

Post by Spooky23 »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #62

1. By a show of hands, who was surprised that the cataclysmic warnings of the weekend subsided into talk of diplomacy on Monday? 2. Let’s hypothesize the US gov’t or allies did pre-release this info to traders as a policy tool, inviting them to sell oil profitably, shaping the later price action . In a practical sense they may have brought more speculators to the short side than otherwise would have been there; is th…

Not traders. Friends and family. These guys are idiots who figure they will all be pardoned before Trump leaves office, or part of the junta that replaces him if he doesn’t leave office.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#299

Post by defrost »

singleshot_ wrote: post #257
phs318u wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know history goes back before the 70’s right?

Maybe he means 70-79 CE

500+ years prior the Greeks and Iranians were going at it for half a century in the Greco-Persian Wars (499 BC - 449 BC).

That's, what, 2,000 years before the settlement of Jamestown by Europeans.

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