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I'm OK being left behind, thanks

shkspr.mobi

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Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#291

Post by ashwinsundar »

II2II wrote: post #192
stiiv wrote: post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

I almost entirely agree with the author's assessment of new technology. Yet that statement rubbed me the wrong way. Sometimes it is better to get into things early because it will grow more complex as time goes on, so it will be easier to pick up early in its development. Consider the Web. In the early days, it was just HTML. That was easy to learn. From there on, it was simply a matter of picking up new skills as th…

This isn't a good example - people were completing 6-month bootcamps and getting $100k offers to do web development not too long ago, decades after the web and HTML took off. After a few years they were making as much as anyone who learned HTML and Web 1.0 back in the 90s.

Are the bootcampers better developers? Probably not. But they still were employable and paid relatively the same.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#292

Post by SoftTalker »

another-dave wrote: post #110

On the otherhand, when Cloud Computing started to come in, I knew a bunch of sysadmins. Some were in the "it'll never take off" camp and no doubt they know it now, kicking and screaming. But the curious early adopters were the ones best positioned to be leading the charge on "cloud migration" when the business finally pulled the trigger. Similarly with mobile dev. As a Java dev at the time that Android came along, I…

> Suddenly the job ads were "Android Dev. Must have 3 years experience".

So just read up on it and say you do. They don't really need 3 years experience, so you don't really need to have it.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#293

Post by vablings »

stiiv wrote: post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

There really isn't anything special to using AI anyways it's not rocket science. Sometimes I will use AI to write me some tailwind tags, sometimes I will use AI to write me a static site for a custom report.

Most of my AI usage comes from doing things I don't enjoy doing like making a series of small tweaks to a function or block of code. Honestly, I just levelled the playing field with vim users and its nothing to write home about

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#294

Post by theptip »

stiiv wrote: post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

Ok, here is the risk of being left behind - if we have moderately fast take-off, the 1-2 years required to upskill in AI might mean you find yourself unemployable when your role gets axed.

I don’t think folks are taking seriously the possible worlds at the P(0.25) tail of likelihood.

You do not get to pick up this stuff “on a timescale of my choosing”, in the worlds where the capability exponential keeps going for another 5-10 years.

I’m sure the author simply doesn’t buy that premise, but IMO it’s poor epistemics to refuse to even engage with the very obvious open question of why this time might be different.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#295

Post by Fraterkes »

postalcoder wrote: post #173
stavros wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely having a blast, but I agree with the author. You're not going to get left behind, the "getting left behind" rhetoric was just cryptocurrency pump-and-dumpers. It's fine to wait and not engage if you don't want to.

I agree with you, which is why I think it's a straw man. How many real devs are actually banging the "you're getting left behind!" drums?

I think FOMO-aligned ai stuff is fairly common on HN, doesn't mean it's always deliberately manipulative.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#296

Post by genthree »

forgetfulness wrote: post #260
zephen wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt you, but I'm out of the loop. Who does this?

My uncle leads IT support teams, the org is measuring AI use in writing reports and tickets. The org has very poorly structured and obsolete processes (he's trying to straighten them up as he goes), AI will probably amplify the lack of structure, by making it easier for the work to _look_ as if someone carefully reviewed the issues and followed procedure. A friend is a team lead in an org that's mandating vibecoding…

I hate the AI assistants for ticket-writing. The beneficial use there would be to prompt for possibly-useful information that's not present, or call out ambiguity and let the writer decide how to resolve any of that. Coaching, basically. Suggesting actual text to include, for people who aren't already excellent at ticket-writing, just leads to noisier tickets that take more work to understand ("did they really mean this, or did the LLM just prompt them to include it and they thought sure, I guess that's good?")

[EDIT] Oh and much of your post rings true for my org. They operate at a fraction the speed they could because of organizational dysfunction and failure to use what's already available to them as far as processes and tech, but are rushing toward LLMs, LOL. Yeah, guys, the slowness has nothing to do with how fast code is written, and I'm suuuuure you'll do a great job of integrating those tools effectively when you're failing at the basics....

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#297

Post by polothesecond »

WolfeReader wrote: post #187
0xblinq wrote: post #67

Comparing these tools to the crypto or NFTs hype is so out of touch with reality. This is more on the scale of the invention of the press, the telegraph, or the internet itself. "I'm ok being left behind, I will join this Internet thing when it really becomes useful"... Ok... you do you. Hope you don't get there too late.

The behaviors of NFT advocates and AI advocates are shockingly similar. Remember how NFTs were supposed to be the future or art ownership, and all it amounted to was awful pictures of bored apes and ahegao lamas? The NFT bros proudly displayed their shitty art - not because it was good, but because it signaled their allegiance. Now go on to any pro-AI blog. Look at the images. They've stopped trying to edit out the A…

> The behaviors of NFT advocates and AI advocates are shockingly similar.

It’s the same people every time. Stupid, gullible idiots.

Remember when HN was obsessed with the room temp superconductivity fraud a few years back? Remember the zealous indignation at anyone suggest skepticism? The empty attempts to downplay their rabid stupidity afterwards?

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#299

Post by mekael »

postalcoder wrote: post #173
stavros wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely having a blast, but I agree with the author. You're not going to get left behind, the "getting left behind" rhetoric was just cryptocurrency pump-and-dumpers. It's fine to wait and not engage if you don't want to.

I agree with you, which is why I think it's a straw man. How many real devs are actually banging the "you're getting left behind!" drums?

I had an heavy ai user on my team say that “those who learn how ti use the tools wont get fired, those who dont are gone”. I used it to generate a bunch of cfn and it worked fine from an example and a couple line prompt, doesnt seem that hard to learn to me.

Now reviewing the 1k lines it generated and making sure its secure, thats going to take me longer than writing it by hand.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#300

Post by tayo42 »

reaperducer wrote: post #163
yunwal wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away. Further standardization of tires or wage increases would probably do the trick. There’s still plenty of software to be created. You’ll probably have to learn some ML tricks or whatever, but there’s nothing going away,…

There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away. Sounds like you've never changed a tire. Or at least not outside of a very controlled environment.

Are most cars not just undoing the lock, the bolts, switching the tire and redoing the bolts and locks?

How are these put on in the first place on an assembly line?

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