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Grief and the AI split

blog.lmorchard.com

291–300 of 404 posts

Re: Grief and the AI split

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need AI for this, we've had search engines and good online resources for decades

Being blunt here but this is a good example of dogmatic thought. AI is leaps and bounds better than google at searching. “You don’t need google for this, we have had public libraries for decades” energy.

Yeah to get the definitive answers, sure AI is quicker. Google is more like the librarian pointing you at possibly good resources to get your answers from after reading the materials and there are a lot of good learning opportunities there. LLMs just give you the answer and robs you of those opportunities.

Re: Grief and the AI split

#292
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether the labor theory of value is right or wrong, the "real split" you describe will soon no longer exist. Capital owners will live on the labor of their capital. Non-capital-owners will live on the largesse of capital, or will not live at all. Unless we muster the political will to stop AI development, internationally, until we can be certain of our ability to durably imbue it with the intrinsic desire to keep hu…

I think there's a piece missing here. Capital owners are humans too, and what humans want (perhaps especially the ones who accumulate capital), is to be at the top of a hierarchy. But a hierarchy needs participants. If nobody else is playing the game, there's no top to be on top of. Strip away the people willing to compete, admire, envy, or just show up, and the whole structure collapses. It's not clear that a world…

Lot of effort was spent to naturalize the current state of affairs and value system, even if there is nothing natural and obvious about it. Humans for millennia have lived with much higher political and social flexibility, with hierarchies built and teared down even seasonally, or with role of property and wealth shifting back and forth.

Of course the structure exists because we allow it, that's the easy part. Hard part is - why do we allow it?

Re: Grief and the AI split

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

fair, you have presented specific niche where the ~quality~ correctness is important in enterprise - not just libraries. but most people aren't writing code in those places. its usually CRUD, advertisement, startups, ecommerce. also there are two things going on here: - quality of code - correctness of code in serious reusable libraries and opensource tools, quality of code matters. the interfaces, redundancy etc. bu…

Maybe you’re too entrenched in the web section of software development. Be aware that there’s a lot of desktop and system software out there. Even in web software, you can write good code without compromising in delivery speed. That just requires you to be good at what you’re doing. But the web is more forgiving of mistakes and a lot of frameworks have no taste at all.

Do you think more sdes work in mission critical software or the ones I mentioned?

Re: Grief and the AI split

#294
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's never been tried before. Capital always required human labor, to be productive. Capital has never closed in on the ability to operate, maintain, defend, and expand itself without human assistance, as it is closing in on that ability now.

It's really not. The capital owners just think it is.

We'd all be a lot safer--even the capital owners--if today's robotics and multimodal intelligence were near the ceiling of what's possible, or even near the bend in the logistic curve where things slow down a lot.

I haven't seen evidence of that. I see evidence of rapid advances in task length, general capabilities, and research and development capabilities in AI, and generality, price, and autonomy in robotics.

How much headroom in these capabilities do you believe we have, before a data center can protect and maintain itself and an on-site power plant? Before robots can run a robot factory?

Re: Grief and the AI split

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need AI for this, we've had search engines and good online resources for decades

Being blunt here but this is a good example of dogmatic thought. AI is leaps and bounds better than google at searching. “You don’t need google for this, we have had public libraries for decades” energy.

> dogmatic thought.

Dogmatism sometimes seems like a better thing compared to mind so open that wind blows through it without obstacles.

Re: Grief and the AI split

#296
I think the split is between people who are in a hurry and those who are not. I'm not in a hurry and so choose not to spend money to get a quicker result.

Taking time to solve a problem myself is pleasurable and I make no apologies for that.

Horses for courses.

Re: Grief and the AI split

#297
post #2

This sounds right to me: > Before AI, both camps were doing the same thing every day. Writing code by hand. Using the same editors, the same languages, the same pull request workflows. The craft-lovers and the make-it-go people sat next to each other, shipped the same products, looked indistinguishable. The motivation behind the work was invisible because the process was identical. Helps explain why some people are d…

I think SWEs are genuinely pretty shocked and awed that codegen models can code at all, let alone code well. My guess is a lot of the agita around this is that people thought "I can code therefore I'm smart/special/etc." and then a machine comes by that can do pretty equivalent work and they're entirely unmoored. I sympathize with that, and I don't mean to dismiss it, but that's not what I feel. I really dislike this "doer vs. maker" binary stuff that comes up every now and again, as though everyone who thinks codegen models aren't perfect doesn't want to make anything. I really want to make things--good things--and I dislike the current hype wave behind codegen models because they often make it harder for me to make good things.

I've used Claude Code to build a few big things at work; I ask it questions ("where does this happen", "we have problem X, give me 3 potential causes", etc); I have it review things before I post PRs; our code review bot finds real heisenbugs. I have mixed success with all of this, but even so I find it overall useful. I'd be irritated if some place I worked, current or present, told me I couldn't use Claude Code or the like.

That said, I've not gotten it to be useful in:

- building entire, complex features in brownfield projects

- solving systemic bugs

- system design/evolution

- feature/product design and planning

- replacing senior engineer code review

It will confidently tell you it's done these things, but when you actually force yourself through the mental slog of reviewing its output, you'll realize it's failed (you also have to be an expert to perform this analysis). Now, maybe it fails in an acceptable way; maybe only slight revision is required; maybe it one-shots the change and verifying success isn't a big mental slog. Those are the good cases. More annoying are the times it fails totally and obviously, but the real nightmares are when it fails totally, yet imperceptibly. It also sometimes can do (some of) these things! But it's inconsistent, such that its successes largely serve to lower your guard against its failures.

And the mental slog is real. The artifacts you have to produce/review/ensure the model adheres to are ponderous. The code generated is ponderous. Code review is even more tedious because there's no human mind behind the code, so you can't build a mental model of the author. Getting a codegen model to revise its work or take a different approach is very hit or miss. Revising the code yourself requires reading thousands and thousands of lines of generated code--again with no human behind it--and building a mental model of what's happening before you can effectively work, and that process is time-consuming and exhausting.

I'm also concerned about the second-order effects. Because switching into the often-required deep mental focus is very difficult (borderline painful), I've seen many, many people reach for LLMs in those moments instead, first a little, then entirely. I've watched people copy/paste API docs into Gemini prompts to explain them. I've watched people unable to find syntax errors in code and paste it into ChatGPT to fix it. I'm confident I'm not the only person who's observed this, and it's a little maddening it's not getting more play.

---

I'm not saying SWEs don't fail in similar ways. I've approved--and authored--human PRs that had insidious flaws with real consequences. I've been asked to "review" PRs pre-ChatGPT that were 10x the size they needed to be. I've seen people plagiarize code, or just copy/paste Stack Overflow constantly. The difference is we build process around these risks, everything from coding patterns, PR size limits, type systems, firing people, borderline ludicrous amounts of unit tests, CI/CD, design docs, staging environments, red/green deploys, QA lists, etc.

I hate all of it! It's a constant reminder of my flaws and it slows down mean time to dopamine squirt of released code. I'd be the first person to give all this shit the axe. I would love to point Claude at the crushingly long list of PRs I have to review. But I can't, because it still has huge, huge flaws. Code review bots miss obvious problems, and they don't have enough context/knowledge about the system/bug/feature to perform a sufficiently comprehensive review. It would be a net time waste because we'd then have to fix a bug in prod or revise an already-deployed feature/fix--things I like even less than code review, if you can believe it.

These models cannot adequately replace humans in other parts of the SDLC. But, because pesky things like design and code review cap codegen models' velocity, our industry is "rethinking" it all, with no consideration of the models' flaws; "rethinking" here meaning "we're considering having an LLM handle all our code review, or not doing it at all". The only way to describe that is reckless disregard. It's unprofessional and unethical.

So, I think my grief isn't about "the craft". I don't think that's gone and I don't think I'd care if it were. My grief is about the humiliation of our profession, the annihilation of our standards and the betrayal of any representation we made to our users--indeed to ourselves. We deserve software systems that do what they say they do, and up until recently I really thought we were working hard to get there. I don't think that anymore; like many other things in our era (community, truth, curiosity, generosity, trust, learning, rationality, practice, compassion) it has retreated in the face of some flavor of self-interested, shallow grift. I really don't know how or why this happened, but regardless of the cause we truly are in a dark time.

Re: Grief and the AI split

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also, theres the pace of advancement of the models. Many people formed their opinions last year, and the landscape has changed a lot. People have been saying this every year for the last 3 years. It hasn't been true before, and it isn't true now. The models haven't actually gotten smarter, they still don't actually understand a thing, and they still routinely make basic syntax and logic errors. Yes, even (insert yo…

Maybe I'm solving different problems to you, but I don't think I've seen a single "idiot moment" from Claude Code this entire week. I've had to massage things to get them more aligned with how I want things, but I don't recall any basic syntax or logic errors.

With the better harness in Claude code and the >4.5 model and a somewhat thought out workflow we’ve definitely arrived at a point where I find it very helpful. The less you can rely on one-shot and more give meaningful context and a well defined testable goal the better it is. It honestly does make me worry how much better can it get and will some percentage of devs become obsolete. It requires less hand holding than many people I’ve worked with and the results come out 100x faster

Re: Grief and the AI split

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a piece missing here. Capital owners are humans too, and what humans want (perhaps especially the ones who accumulate capital), is to be at the top of a hierarchy. But a hierarchy needs participants. If nobody else is playing the game, there's no top to be on top of. Strip away the people willing to compete, admire, envy, or just show up, and the whole structure collapses. It's not clear that a world…

Lot of effort was spent to naturalize the current state of affairs and value system, even if there is nothing natural and obvious about it. Humans for millennia have lived with much higher political and social flexibility, with hierarchies built and teared down even seasonally, or with role of property and wealth shifting back and forth. Of course the structure exists because we allow it, that's the easy part. Hard p…

I think in part because we have a black hole in our chest, and we are searching for ways to fill it. We attempt to fill it through worship at the altar of materialism, celebrity, etc. We are doing this to quiet the roar from the black hole. Actually stepping away would require us to sit with stillness, and then to forge a new path, a new life. It's frightening.
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