Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid • Hacker News Board

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#291

Post by anon7725 » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC

citrin_ru wrote: post #257

jandrese wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just slightly missed the crux of the issue here. The big "problem" with renewables like solar is that once you've installed enough for yourself you are done for like 30 years. There is no monthly sun fee you need to keep paying. There is no solardollar , because there's nothing that needs to be extracted, transported, and sold every single day. A lot of billionaires are in an existential crisis over a world where…

> Even the solar panel market is self defeating. Once there is enough installed power the demand will drop off sharply as the refresh cycle is too long. It's not going to happen soon - solar is still just 8% of world energy production. Even if solar will cover 100% of consumption on a sunny day it still would make sense to buy more panels to have enough output on a cloudy day or in the morning/evening. It's likely pr…

Energy use goes up as civilization advances, and Jevon’s paradox suggests that we’ll use more energy as its cost goes down. Couple that with the need to replace some portion of the installed base of solar capacity over time and I think solar will be a growth industry for the foreseeable future.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#292

Post by legitster » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC

helterskelter wrote: post #200

legitster wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am reminded by the perhaps revisionist history but still applicable belief that slavery was really ended by industrialization making abolition economically advantageous and not actually a socially driven movement. (In reality it was certainly a convoluted mixture of the two I'm sure.) More or less. Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years…

The south wasn't really situated for industrialization at the time. They didn't have enough rivers that could turn a water wheel effectively. (That's what I've heard anyway)

It's true the first mills were in the north because they had some good sites, but there are good mill sites throughout the South as well. More tellingly, when the first steam engines in the US were imported from Europe - they could have been just as easily installed in the South.

I think more importantly, steam mills solved for a problem the south did not have. If one was to tell a southerner, I have a technology that will save on labor costs, the southerner's response would have been "what are labor costs?"

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#293

Post by pksebben » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #263

roenxi wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years to abolish slavery... Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get…

Ah, the master of bad takes is at it again. > Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, Except that of course it wasn't. > and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. And many smart people do. > There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get out into the wild. Yes, such as…

It really comes down to granularity at the end, and whether you attempt to look as closely as possible or you accept a certain lack of fidelity because it makes the abstraction work for you.

In this case, I frequently hear people talk about how "the greeks and romans had slaves! and they were white! See, it's fine!" but that fails to take into account that there's a gigantic difference between slavery-as-a-legal-status like they had (entered into by contract or as legal punishment, exit conditions, no real social meaning), and chattel slavery based on race (the 'fuck you got mine' of ethos). I think the idea is that if you squint real, real hard; you can make it look like "not being racist" and "human rights" are somehow newfangled, 'woke' ideals, which is the kind of hilariously wrong misunderstanding we once saw embodied by cletus the slackjawed yokel.

I can call my ma from up here. Hey, ma! Get off the dang roof!

Slavery as we talk about it has been around since roughly the 1600s, and even then didn't peak until the 1800s. Everything prior to that was a totally different beast. and a quick sidebar - wth is supposed to be wrong with being alert to your surroundings? Do we really value being asleep that much?

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#294

Post by Retric » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:17 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #213

legitster wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am reminded by the perhaps revisionist history but still applicable belief that slavery was really ended by industrialization making abolition economically advantageous and not actually a socially driven movement. (In reality it was certainly a convoluted mixture of the two I'm sure.) More or less. Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years…

> Adam Smith famously wrote that slavery was economically detrimental way back in 1776. It still took nearly 100 years to abolish slavery... Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get…

Slavery in Europe was replaced with a more efficient system in the Middle Ages.

So calling it a constant throughout history is only true in the way that slavery still exists today, in that you could find it somewhere on the globe.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#295

Post by pksebben » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:19 PM UTC

joe_mamba wrote: post #287

jacquesm wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, the master of bad takes is at it again. > Slavery had basically been a thing for all of human history up to that point, Except that of course it wasn't. > and based on my discussions on HN many smart people don't believe a lot of what Adam Smith said. And many smart people do. > There are still a lot of basic economic ideas that would make people much wealthier that struggle to get out into the wild. Yes, such as…

>Except that of course it wasn't. Except that it definitely was.

no.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#296

Post by ben_w » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC

citrin_ru wrote: post #257

jandrese wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just slightly missed the crux of the issue here. The big "problem" with renewables like solar is that once you've installed enough for yourself you are done for like 30 years. There is no monthly sun fee you need to keep paying. There is no solardollar , because there's nothing that needs to be extracted, transported, and sold every single day. A lot of billionaires are in an existential crisis over a world where…

> Even the solar panel market is self defeating. Once there is enough installed power the demand will drop off sharply as the refresh cycle is too long. It's not going to happen soon - solar is still just 8% of world energy production. Even if solar will cover 100% of consumption on a sunny day it still would make sense to buy more panels to have enough output on a cloudy day or in the morning/evening. It's likely pr…

8% of electricity, not total world energy.

But the growth rate has been huge for as long as records have been kept, and was a factor of just over 10x between 2014 and 2024, speeding up more recently.

PV and wind together are likely to start breaking the electricity market severely in the first half of the 2030s; I hope, but it's not certain yet, that ongoing battery expansion will allow the demand for electricity to increase and this can continue to the end of the 2030s, because at the current pace of development those scale up to all our energy needs, not merely our present electrical needs, in a bit less than 20 years from now. (PV alone would do all of it in 20 years at present rate of change).

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#297

Post by cyberax » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:24 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #208

cyberax wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russians you mention managed it in 1723 In 1861.

The link lists this in 1723: > Peter the Great converts all house slaves into house serfs, effectively making slavery illegal in Russia. 1861 ditches serfdom, too.

Yep. The power of rebranding.

Serfs were essentially slaves. They could be traded without any real limits and could be punished at will. The families could be split, and serfs were officially prohibited from making lawsuits against their owners.

And it was one of the reasons for Russia's "misadventures" during the 20-th century. The serfdom abolishment came when other countries were already in the midst of the industrial revolution.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#298

Post by pksebben » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:25 PM UTC

inglor_cz wrote: post #169

ceejayoz wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prior to the steam engine, what sources of energy you have? Oxen? Paid laborers? It's not like the American South was unique in needing farm workers. > Basically all the settled civilizations used some sort of non-free or at best semi-free labour. The South was notable in clinging to slavery long after it had been abolished elsewhere. > And given that humans are very good at rationalizing away their conditions, the…

"Oxen? Paid laborers? " In other words, animal and human muscle, we agree on that. I didn't claim that all human labour was non-free, far from that. Every classical civilization had paid artisans and employees as well. But the paid professions tended to be the skilled ones, and the non-free ones tended to be the arduous, backbreaking ones. "The South was notable in clinging to slavery long after it had been abolished…

> This is a system stretching over millennia

not quite. 'Slavery' has been around that long. 'Chattel Slavery' started in the 1600s and peaked in the 1800s. So like, half a millenia.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#299

Post by maxglute » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:26 PM UTC

crystal_revenge wrote: post #57

toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is global oil oversupply of ~2M-3.7M barrels/day. China destroys ~1M barrels/day of global oil demand for every 24 months of EV production. Iran needs $164/barrel to break even on their budget, $86/barrel for Saudi Arabia, ~$60 for US shale (per Bloomberg). China has already potentially hit peak oil and ~>50% of new vehicle sales are battery electric or plug in hybrids. Oil is over, regardless of this admin's p…

> Oil is over Then why has both global [0] and US [1] consumption been rising year-over-year for the last few years and projected to continue to rise [2]? All those articles you're posting about short term changes in the dynamics of the oil market (except China, which is remains a net energy importer only because of oil, so they have a strong strategic reason to reduce oil depdence, though they still use quite a bit[…

It's more like renewables reducing velocity of increase in oil demand (for now). A few more pieces really need to come together, most oil displacement is EV and storage which is infrastructure problem.

Apart from PRC EV displacing 1mbd in oil. The other unmentioned stat PRC annual solar production, assume 30 year lifespan displaces about annual global oil consumption, i.e. 100mbd per day worth of oil. Their total solar output is 2x, what they produce, i.e. they produce enough solar to replace global oilm lng and a big chunk of coal in 10-15 years at full capacity. Storage hasn't caught up, true oil displacement depends on what storage lag will be, but likely short/medium term, not long term.

As for actual oil use, notice how PRC hammering EVs but still importing high % of oil, that's ongoing strategic reserver SPR and petchem play, i.e. even though they'll use less oil, they plan to store more (to mediate prices), and convert more into petchem products. So future is world where cheap renewables will displace oil from transportation to industr... because lots of energy = more industry = increase demand for fossil inputs. Which could mean less/same/more oil demand, unhelpful, I know.

Re: Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid

#300

Post by kilroy123 » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC

dzonga wrote: post #126

The trump administration by refusing to admit the superior metrics of solar, they're just burying their heads in sand. As admitting that solar is now a superior and cost effective means of energy means admitting that the US is no longer top dog. As empires are built on mastering a source of energy. the Portuguese | Dutch - mastered wind to power their ships. the British mastered coal to power Industrial Revolution. A…

He doesn't care about solar because it does nothing to boost his narcissism. Simple as that. He can't take credit for it. It doesn't boost his image. It's just a simple quiet thing sitting there working.