Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are already very good sub-$100 lidars, especially for 2D since they were made en masse for vacuum cleaners. E.g. the LD19 or STL-19P as they're calling it now for some reason. You need to pair them with serious compute to run AMCL with them, plus actuation (though ST3215s are cheap and easy to integrate now too) and control for that actuation which also wants its own compute, plus a battery, etc. the costs quic…
I think the difference is that these are intended for automotive use and have a much longer range than the ones in your Roomba.
Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
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Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#292The mind salivates at the idea of sub-$100 and soon after sub-$10 Lidar. We could build spatial awareness into damn near everything. It'll be a cambrian explosion of autonomous robots.
RIP to every single camera in existence if that happens. Lidar is awful with damaging camera lenses.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok so Waymo is useless in the rain then, kind of limiting. But at least that 0.000000000001% times it actually is a sinkhole you won't damage the bumper.
I'd rather a Waymo be useless in the rain rather than a Tesla be actively dangerous and likely to kill me. Tesla ""autopilot"" fatalities: 65 Waymo fatalities: 0
By some measures Waymo is actually at -1 fatalities. There has been one confirmed birth of a child in a Waymo. https://apnews.com/article/baby-born-waymo-san-francisco-6bd...
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#294Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#295Since lidar has distance information and cameras do not, it was always a ridiculous idea by a certain company to use cameras only. Lidar using cars are going to replace at least the ones that don't make use of this obvious answer to obstacle detection challenges.
considering cameras can create reliable enough distance measurements AND also handle all the color reception needed for legally driving roads it was always a ridiculous idea by a certain set of people that lidar is necessary.
"Necessary"? Seems like a straw man, don't you think? I strive to argue against the strongest reasonable claim someone is making.
Lots of reasonable people suggest LIDAR is helpful to fill in gaps when vision is compromised, degraded, or less capable.
People running businesses, of course, will make economic trade-offs. That's fine. But don't confuse, say, Elon's economic tradeoff with the full explanation of reality which must include an awareness that different sensors have different strengths in different contexts.
So, when one thinks about what sensor mix is best for a given application, one would be wise to ask (and answer) such questions as:
- What is the quality bar?
- What sensors are available?
- Wow well do various combinations of sensors work across the range of conditions that matter for the quality bar?
- WRT "quality bar": who gets to decide "what matters"? The company making the cars? The people that drive them? regulators that care about public safety. The answer: it is a complex combination.
It is time to dismiss any claim (or implication) that "technology good, regulation bad". That might be the dumbest excuse for a philosophy I've ever heard. It is the modern-day analogue of "Brawndo's got what plants crave." Smart people won't make this argument outright, but unfortunately, their claims sometimes reduce to this level of absurdity. Neither innovation nor regulation are inherently good nor bad. There are deeper principles in play.
Yes, some individuals would use their self-proclaimed freedom to e.g. drive without seatbelts at 100 mph at night with headlights off. An extreme example, but it is the logical extension of pure individualism run amok. Regulators and anyone who cares about public safety will draw a line somewhere and say "No. Individual stupidity has a limit." Even those same people would eventually come to their senses after they kill someone, but by then it is too late.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#296Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Waymo benefits from Google's unparalleled geospatial data. That's true, and they have a huge headstart, but I wonder if all these cubesat companies can bring the price down on data enough that others will be able to compete.
Maybe. But Google has been there in a sensor laden car, overhead with an airplane, and buying all the access that is available in satellite imagery, and fusing that together in a continually updated model. Plus real time data from a billion maps and navigation users. I pity the fool going up against that.
Maybe their navigation system will be better than the competition due to real-time traffic data from Google Maps users, but I don't think it'll be so much better as to be an unbeatable advantage.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#297Since lidar has distance information and cameras do not, it was always a ridiculous idea by a certain company to use cameras only. Lidar using cars are going to replace at least the ones that don't make use of this obvious answer to obstacle detection challenges.
The reasoning is cynical but sound. If the system uses only the sensing modes people have, it will make the mistakes people do. If a jury thinks "well I could have done that either!" You win. It doesn't matter if your system has fewer accidents if some of the failure modes are different than human ones, because the jury will think "how could it not figure that out?"
It may just be faster to make lidar cheap. And lidar can do things humans can't.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#298Oh hell yeah, we can finally stop the braindead attempts to make a safe self-driving car with just cameras.
Yes, silly using just cameras, I mean humans have Lidar sensors, that why they can drive, why didn't new just copy that....oh wait. It all seriousness though, Tesla are producing cyber cabs now which are 10th the price of Waymo's and can drive autonomously anywhere in the world. I think we can see where this is going. (Hint: not well for Waymo) Also the article is speculative 'MicroVision says its sensor could one da…
We're always getting closer at emulating this, but we're still a ways off from matching it.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#299Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Musk miscalculated on 1) cost reduction in LIDAR and 2) how incredible the human brain is compared to computers. And, less excusable, ignorant of how incredible human eyes are compared to small sensor cameras. In particular high DR in low light, with fast motion. Every photographer knows this.
And also ignorant about how those two eyes have binocular vision, adjustable positions, and can look in multiple mirrors for full spatial awareness.
Re: Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics
#300Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there any deeper study on long term effects regarding retinal damage? I would imagine, even with safe dosages, there would be some form of cumulative effect in terms of retinal phototoxicity. More so if we consider the scenario that this becomes a standard COTS feature in cars and we are walking around a city centre with a fleet of hundreds of thousands of these laser sources.
Some lidar units simply use the wavelength that the human eye is opaque to. The grandparent comment is about camera lenses with little to no near infrared cutoff filter. Some older iPhones were like that and that was the original breaking story.
Shame that perverts had to ruin that for us, it was kinda neat to point a TV remote as the camera and see the bulb light up.