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US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

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Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#291

Post by mmooss »

phainopepla2 wrote: post #229
mmooss wrote: post #223

Whether the money is coming out of US consumers and businesses or out of Chinese businesses, where is the money going? How is it being used?

It goes into the Treasury Department's general fund, where it's used as part of the federal government's overall budget

I think that's more important than people realize:

* The executive branch is doing its own appropriations, effectively - it's revenue they create and control, with little restriction (?).

* It's a way of shifting revenue from progressive taxation to regressive forms (for example, sales tax is another way to do that).

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#292

Post by AngryData »

ncruces wrote: post #287
Aloisius wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several species of vanilla are indigenous to Puerto Rico. Indeed, Puerto Rico used to be the ninth largest vanilla producer in the world. Vanilla will happily grow in parts of Florida and the USVI as well.

So that's the goal? Onshore vanilla production, now cheaper than Madagascar given the 47% tariff? No wait; the tariff was reduced to 10%, maybe 15? Something.

It seems doubtful considering the immense labor cost of vanilla production combined with the persecution of people most willing to do those jobs.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#293

Post by culi »

mindslight wrote: post #88
culi wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fighting part isn't just us tariffing China, it's bullying other countries to do the same. That's how the US won the first trade war under trump 1 (and continued by Biden). Now Trump 2 tried to ramp it up and this time its backfired because other countries have refused to go along. Many have even been pushed to collaborate more closely with China. China's exports have only grown to record highs

> other countries have refused to go along Trump failed to convince other countries to continue going along because he's a simplistic zero-sum bully who barks orders, expects others to fall in line, and then throws a tantrum when they don't - rather than a tactful leader capable of maintaining the trust of a voluntary positive-sum coalition. That he's also been overtly attacking allies at the same time doesn't help c…

> Trump failed to convince other countries to continue going along because he's a simplistic zero-sum bully who barks orders, expects others to fall in line, and then throws a tantrum when they don't

All of these things were true in 2016 as well yet other countries went along then.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#294

Post by doom2 »

transcriptase wrote: post #67
Arubis wrote: post #8

Yes. This is what a tariff is.

Exactly. You make it more attractive to do business with someone domestically by increasing the cost of doing business with nations that subsidize their exports or undercut your companies with slave labour or lax environmental regulations. Over the long term, domestic capacity either grows or emerges to take advantage of business models that were unprofitable due to impossibly cheap imports before.

The problem is, as the end consumer, it doesn't _feel_ like the domestic options are suddenly the cheap or desirable option. I am just paying more for the thing I was already buying. Similar to, eg, custom PCBs I ordered from China that were more expensive due to the end of the de minimus exemption, where there really isn't a good domestic option. Will an American Shenzhen ever pop up to provide that capacity? I'm very doubtful. Also similar to the Chinese drone ban. Domestically produced drones are both more expensive and there are fewer options in the consumer market. Again, I'm extremely skeptical that we will see an emergence of a competitive domestic UAV industry oriented towards consumers.

In short, it remains to be seen if tariffs have the desired effect in the long term. Their current implementation is merely a tax on consumers without driving them to domestic brands because they weren't introduced gradually but all at once.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#295

Post by amiga386 »

rlpb wrote: post #255
amiga386 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble with sugar taxes is it does drive soda-company behaviour. A. G. Barr killed the real Irn Bru in 2018 to avoid the Scottish sugar tax. It could've passed on the tax to the consumer, but it didn't. It has ceased making its iconic beverage and now only sells a variant that tastes crap. No amount of money can bring the good stuff back. The sugar tax killed it. The world is now a slightly worse place, thanks t…

Destroying demand for sugary drinks was exactly the intent, though.

Yes, but if there's an axe murderer in my house, I don't care how much he intends to murder me. I don't want him to murder me.

The government has a variety of aims and objectives. Certainly, shooting for a more healthy population is good. Convincing those that drink a lot to drink less would be one way. Permanently making the drinks awful for the entire population, no matter how many or few they drink, and ensuring what was once good never ever comes back... is another way.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#296

Post by yadaeno »

leptons wrote: post #233
yadaeno wrote: post #91

US consumer inflation in 2025 was 2.7%, so clearly the impact on consumers from tariffs was minimal.

Almost no change in economic policy has immediate effect, including tariffs.

I'm skeptical. Tariffs affect the cost of business same-day. If we were going to see a change in consumer prices id expect to see an inkling of a change 12 months in. I'm open to being wrong but claims that tariffs are destroying the American consumer feel like gas lighting given the CPI data.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#297

Post by HDThoreaun »

ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #57

I think blanket tariffs are dumb don't get me wrong. But tariffs have been used in the car industry for decades. If you got rid of them completely within 5 years the American car companies would be closing plants. The whole reason Japanese auto manufacturers build plants in the US was to avoid tariffs. Shipping costs are actually incredibly minimal for a vehicle. So in my opinion, we've seen where they can work. If y…

Protectionism in the auto industry led to american auto makers being the laughing stock of the world. Acting like it is a good thing is absolutely insane

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#298

Post by leptons »

yadaeno wrote: post #296
leptons wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost no change in economic policy has immediate effect, including tariffs.

I'm skeptical. Tariffs affect the cost of business same-day. If we were going to see a change in consumer prices id expect to see an inkling of a change 12 months in. I'm open to being wrong but claims that tariffs are destroying the American consumer feel like gas lighting given the CPI data.

>Tariffs affect the cost of business same-day.

How? The day the tariff goes into effect is after vast amounts of on-shore stock has already landed, purchased for a far lower price. The purchases done on the day the tariffs took effect and after are costing more, but have not landed yet. So no, it's practically never a "same-day" effect.

>claims that tariffs are destroying the American consumer feel like gas lighting

If you live in the US, and don't notice the price of everything has been steadily increasing last year, and continues to increase this year, then I don't know what to tell you but that you're arguing in bad faith.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#299

Post by yadaeno »

leptons wrote: post #298
yadaeno wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical. Tariffs affect the cost of business same-day. If we were going to see a change in consumer prices id expect to see an inkling of a change 12 months in. I'm open to being wrong but claims that tariffs are destroying the American consumer feel like gas lighting given the CPI data.

>Tariffs affect the cost of business same-day. How? The day the tariff goes into effect is after vast amounts of on-shore stock has already landed, purchased for a far lower price. The purchases done on the day the tariffs took effect and after are costing more, but have not landed yet. So no, it's practically never a "same-day" effect. >claims that tariffs are destroying the American consumer feel like gas lighting…

> The day the tariff goes into effect is after vast amounts of on-shore stock has already landed

Tariffs took effect in February 2025. We saw CPI go up 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5%/4 in Q1 2026 so I'm skeptical of the inventory lag theory. Maybe we're stressing some other part of the economy and gearing up for catastrophic failure, but I don't see that in the economic data.

> If you live in the US

I live in the US. Gas prices spiked in 2024 and prices went up, gas prices went down and CPI leveled off, tariffs started in 2025 and CPI remains stable. Maybe tariffs are cutting into some drop shipper's profits but I'm definitely not paying for it.

Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says

#300

Post by maxerickson »

pirate787 wrote: post #213
curun1r wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s obnoxious about them isn’t tariffs conceptually, it’s the implementation. There’s an argument that some sort of tariffs are actually necessary. The world is changing and the US has become reliant on countries who increasingly have divergent interests from the US. Additionally, some countries have aging populations that will make them more and more unreliable places to manufacture stuff in the next couple decad…

Plenty of Americans are ready and able to do the work if the conditions and wages are at the market rate. We're addicted to abusing the illegal immigrant underclass. Returning undocumented people to their homes is the moral issue of our time; Trump is ending a system of neo-slavery.

What's the market rate?
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