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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

291–300 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I know women in NYC who voted Trump because they believed Harris was not tough enough to handle the geopolitical stage. I know Puerto Ricans and Dominicans who voted Trump because they believe they are being replaced by a wave of new immigrants who will vote Democrat. My friends, an interracial couple who voted democrat, voted Trump because the schools were going to give their kids hormone pills without their consent…

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#293
Given the relatively low inflation in 2025, I’m skeptical of the claim that consumers bore 96% of the tariff burden. With CPI inflation at 2.7% and roughly $18,000 in goods consumption per person in US, total price increase in goods work out to ~160B. A $200 billion increase in customs revenues would exceed the total price increases attributable to inflation - which makes little sense if 96% of that was paid by consumers. Essentially tariffs did not increase inflation in any meaningful sense which means that somebody else paid the bill - not consumers.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

Well when we look at rational economic policies take a look at top ~10 in terms of GDP, purchase parity adjusted, per capita: monaco, liechtenstein, singapore, luxembourg, ireland, macau, qatar, bermuda, norway, switzerland Monarchy: monaco, liechtenstein, qatar One party state w/ elections: singapore, macau direct democracy: switzerland represented democracy: Norway, Bermuda, Ireland, Luxembourg Multi-party represen…

> There are many natural economic reasons for GDP-per-capita to vary between jurisdictions (e.g. places rich in oil and gas tend to have high GDP-per-capita figures). However, it is increasingly being recognized that tax havens, or corporate tax havens, have distorted economic data which produces artificially high, or inflated, GDP-per-capita figures.

> ...

> In 2017, Ireland's economic data became so distorted by U.S. multinational tax avoidance strategies (see leprechaun economics), also known as BEPS actions, that Ireland effectively abandoned GDP (and GNP) statistics as credible measures of its economy, and created a replacement statistic called modified gross national income (or GNI*)

Source: Wikipedia on GDP per capita, PPP

I don't think your conclusion about governance is warranted, given the important other factors you aren't accounting for in your list (also presence of large oil & gas natural resources).

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#295

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

So do buyers also pay for 96% of the advertising, 96% of the manufacturing, etc.?

Yes, actually? It's baked into the pricing?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

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Elections are kind of an "average" / pulse of the ~236 million eligible voters.

The reasons people vote a certain way or can't be bothered to show up at the polls are going to vary significantly across the nearly quarter billion humans making those choices.

So any attempt to "single issue" explain election results are going to be wrong, particularly in a close election like this one. (49.8% vs 48.3%, and Electoral Votes in battleground states often in the tens of thousands of voters, out of tens of millions.

But many of the issues certainly contribute to flipping voters between one candidate, another, or staying home.

So sure, totally, gender and race played a role.

The economy (and steep inflation) played a role.

Biden being an increasingly disliked incumbent, staying in the race too long, and Harris being too conservative to distance herself from him played a role.

News and propaganda played a role (and I suspect this is a big one. Remember when Trump was all like Deep State, Democrats and Epstein, let's get those files released! And then it came time to do it, and for some reason he was like... oh that's a bad idea?)

No doubt individual state politics play a role, too - an unpopular governor might give the opposing party a boost.

But yeah, if the Democratic nominee was a) nominated, and b) a white male, the odds probably would've shifted in their favor enough to flip those few battleground states.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#297

Side note: US Americans still strikes me as a weird Europeanism, even though it's accurate. Only people living in the US think the work American refers only to them and their fellow countrymen.

Canadians don't use the word Americans for themselves at all, and consider the term Americans to refer to US residents.

The broader term is "North American"

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Women have had the right to vote for a long time. Women could not bring themselves to vote for a woman for President. People talk a lot about Trump but I think a lot of people just voted against the other option so it didn't have much to do with Trump to begin with.

Having right vote when you belong to some category doesn’t mean having possibility to elect someone in that category. It could be that legally the category of people is not illegible, or are bared from being elected by other practical considerations.

Also being part of a social category doesn’t mean one will be immune to bias against this very category if it’s heavily pushed in the dominant social constructs.

Actually women able to reach top level political function in a patriarchal system will more likely do so by being doubly virulent against feminist standpoints. Look at Tatcher or Takaichi for a more recent example.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy this - Harris had a big bump in the polls as soon as she entered the race and I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything . This bullshit that American's won't vote for a woman is just an excuse not to run women and to deflect blame towards a culture war issue and away from the fact that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. I voted for Harris, I even canvased for her, but…

I think that's wrong. The Democrat platform offered a lot. It's just that if in front of you, you have a weirdo who gives some stupid "with me, everything is free, and there's no problem" line, that is provable completely bullshit, but that your population is too uneducated (or too in a cult) to understand, then this happens... What did you want Democrat to do? Give the same lies that GOP does? then what's the endgam…

But... Mamdani offered free childcare and affordable housing and won. It's not that far from feee everything.
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