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The next two years of software engineering

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Re: The next two years of software engineering

#291

Post by palata »

babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

I think it does both: you can have an LLM automate bad coding (that's the vibe coding part), and you can have an LLM speed up good coding.

Many times, bad code is sufficient. Actually too many times: IMHO that is the reason why the software industry produces lower quality software every year. Bad products are often more profitable than good products. But it's not always for making bad products: sometimes it's totally fine to vibe code a proof or concept or prototype, I would say.

Other times, we really need stable and maintainable code. I don't think we can or want to vibe code that.

LLMs make low-quality coding more accessible, but I don't think they remove the need for high-quality coding. Before LLMs, the fraction of low-quality code was growing already, just because it was already profitable.

An analogy could be buildings: everybody can build a bench that "does the job". Maybe that bench will be broken in 2 months, but right now it works; people can sit on it. But not everybody can build a dam. And if you risk going to jail if your dam collapses, that's a good incentive for not vibe coding it.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#292

Post by sanderjd »

pphysch wrote: post #276
sanderjd wrote: post #263

> The flip scenario: AI unlocks massive demand for developers across every industry, not just tech. Healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, and finance all start embedding software and automation. Rather than replacing developers, AI becomes a force multiplier that spreads development work into domains that never employed coders. We’d see more entry-level roles, just different ones: “AI-native” developers who quickly…

An AI-enabled developer is still a full-time job that requires SWE expertise. I think the quoted portion is correct, but it will be a gradual change as CTO/CIOs realize the arbitrage opportunity in replacing most of their crappy SaaS subscriptions with high-velocity in-house solutions. The savvy ones, at least.

This is true if you want to build professional software. But what I foresee is a lot more tasks being accomplished with task-specific tools created by the people responsible for doing those tasks. Like how people use spreadsheets to get their jobs done, but with a much broader set of use cases.

Once it is easier to just make almost anything yourself than it is to go through a process of expressing your requirements to a professional software development group and iterating on the results, that will be a popular choice.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#293

Post by menaerus »

qsera wrote: post #280
menaerus wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why but our profession for some reason is different than the others in this respect and people often like to think that this is a norm and if you're not doing it you're not worthwhile. I think it has to do with some interesting psychological effects of people who are generally attracted to this profession but also due to the companies who implemented those mental hacks as a means to attract people who ar…

> for some reason I think the reason is quite simple. Software is endlessly configurable. And thus a lot higher chance to get the configuration wrong. This is what makes it attractive, and makes it hard to get right. You cannot get good at it without making a ton of mistakes. When companies look for people with a lot of side projects, they are looking at people who already have made such mistakes and learned from the…

That argument would be sound if no other profession existed that is at least comparably complex.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#294

Post by macbem »

plastic-enjoyer wrote: post #261
seberino wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure that is warranted. AI will create exciting changes to society for the better. These times are uncertain but certainly not depressing .

I don't doubt this, however, the question is if AI will do this in our life-time. The industrialization has led to prosperity in the long term, but initially it led primarily to the proletarianization of the people. Are you willing to accept a devaluation of your skills and a decline in your prosperity so that in 50 to 100 years there is a chance that AI will lead to a better future?

No one is going to ask if you're willing to accept this - it's simply going to happen whether we like it or not.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#295

Post by sanderjd »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #289
sanderjd wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the better way to think of this is whether it will be harder for people who are good at using AI tools to accomplish things with computers to get jobs. Maybe, but I don't think so. I think this skill set will be useful in every line of work.

That doesn’t solve the problem. It’s easy enough to be “good enough” at AI tools just like it’s easy enough to be a decent enterprise CRUD full stack/back end/mobile developer. It will still be hard to stand out from the crowd. I saw this coming on the enterprise dev side where most people work back in 2015. Not AI of course, but the commoditization of development. I started moving closer to the “business”, got exper…

My point is: I don't think there will be way more jobs for "AI developers", I think there will be plenty of jobs for people who are employed in an industry and adept with using AI tools to be effective at their job. These people would not be differentiating themselves from other "AI developers", but from other people who do their role in whatever industry they are in, but who aren't as adept with these tools.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#296

Post by brabel »

jmyeet wrote: post #257
maciejzj wrote: post #143

TBH, it all feels like a huge gamble at this point. Neither skills, education, institutional ties, nor current employment can guarantee a stable foundation for life. This hits harder depending on how much money, social capital, or debt you accumulated before this volatility began. If you’ve paid off your debts, bought a house, and stabilized your family life, you’re gambling with how comfortable the coming years will…

I say this without hyperbole: we are (IMHO) on the verge of total systemic collapse. We've had 50+ years of deteriotating worker conditions and a massive concentration of wealth to like 10,000 people. The 1980s crushed the labor movement, to all of our detriment. The GFC destroyed the career prospects of many millenials who discovered their entry-level positions no longer existed so we created a generation that we're…

You’re focusing on the US. In Europe, worker protections are great. However, Europe has been lagging behind the US for a couple of decades and the gap has been growing. All tech giants are based in the US or China. Maybe things will collapse in the US now, but very unlikely to do so in Europe unless the impact from the US is so great it propagates to Europe, despite Europe itself not having done the things that caused such collapse in the US , which seems to be the result of prioritizing profit and greed above everything else, including people wellbeing.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#297

Post by dysoco »

qsera wrote: post #108
hncoder12345 wrote: post #53

Sometimes I wonder if I made the wrong choice with software development. Even after getting to a senior role, according to this article, you're still expected to get more education and work on side projects outside of work. Am I supposed to want to code all the time? When can I pursue hobbies, a social life, etc.

>I made the wrong choice with software development. If you didn't like working with computers, then you (and another gazillion people who choose it for the $$$) probably made the wrong choice. But totally depends on what you wanted to get out of it. If you wanted to make $$$ and you are making it, what is the problem? That is assuming you have fun outside of work. But if you wanted to be the best at what you do, then…

> If you didn't like working with computers, then you (and another gazillion people who choose it for the $$$) probably made the wrong choice.

The problem is the field is changing, fast. I love writing code... I'm not so sure I love prompting Claude, coordinating agents and reviewing +30k vibe-coded PRs.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#298

Post by didgetmaster »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #161
maciejzj wrote: post #143

TBH, it all feels like a huge gamble at this point. Neither skills, education, institutional ties, nor current employment can guarantee a stable foundation for life. This hits harder depending on how much money, social capital, or debt you accumulated before this volatility began. If you’ve paid off your debts, bought a house, and stabilized your family life, you’re gambling with how comfortable the coming years will…

I felt a lot safer when I was a young grad than now that I have kids to support and I can't just up and move to wherever the best job opportunity is or live off lentils to save money or whatever.

When I was single with no kids, I felt pretty comfortable leaving a good job to join a startup. I took a 50% pay cut to join when the risk seemed high, but the reward also seemed high.

It paid off for me, but who knows if I would have taken that leap later in life.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#299

Post by qsera »

menaerus wrote: post #293
qsera wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for some reason I think the reason is quite simple. Software is endlessly configurable. And thus a lot higher chance to get the configuration wrong. This is what makes it attractive, and makes it hard to get right. You cannot get good at it without making a ton of mistakes. When companies look for people with a lot of side projects, they are looking at people who already have made such mistakes and learned from the…

That argument would be sound if no other profession existed that is at least comparably complex.

It is not about complexity.

I ll list some attributes of software development that makes it unique.

* No hard rules, textbooks to follow, industry as a whole still make costly mistakes and recovery cycles.

* No easy way to gauge the requirement-fit of the thing you made. Only time will tell.

* Cheap (financially) to practice, make mistakes and learn.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#300

Post by stanford_labrat »

shimman wrote: post #268
jmyeet wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I say this without hyperbole: we are (IMHO) on the verge of total systemic collapse. We've had 50+ years of deteriotating worker conditions and a massive concentration of wealth to like 10,000 people. The 1980s crushed the labor movement, to all of our detriment. The GFC destroyed the career prospects of many millenials who discovered their entry-level positions no longer existed so we created a generation that we're…

I do wonder what will come next, it seems very unlikely that modern states can effectively be toppled and replaced by revolutions but maybe the nature of revolutions will change themselves. After all, it's not like the neoliberal paradigm was always so, it was systematically planned by elites in the 1970s and we're now proudly living in the society they envisioned (elites have wealth while everyone else struggles). T…

at the dissolution and decentralization of empires feudalism in it's many forms historically seems to be the most common outcome.

i would say that we firmly live in the American Empire with techno-feudalistic tendencies, but a historical event of such magnitude as the complete dissolution of the American state will probably see a reversal to a more traditional feudal system. Think Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates buying up and becoming the Dukes of the PNW.

personally though i don't think we are at this stage yet or even close to it. until the federal government becomes COMPLETELY inept and the average citizen cannot buy food, this won't happen. yes market conditions are currently not the best but we are nowhere near starvation.

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