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Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

economist.com

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Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#291

Post by dottjt »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #284
dottjt wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could be misunderstanding this, but you know that you can buy ETFs that are currency hedged? Taking Vanguard for example, VGS is global equities, but VGAD is global equities that are AUD-hedged (my home country). The only downside is that you pay more in fees (and they're less tax efficient). People generally don't bother with it though, because on a long enough time-line currencies usually revert to their long-ter…

Let's say I'm close to retirement. And let's say I'm in US dollars, and the dollar isn't doing well right now, and might continue to not do well for a long enough time frame to matter to me. On the other hand, my expenses will also be in US dollars. To what degree should I hedge against the dollar?

Oh right, sorry I completely misread this.

I'm actually not sure in your case. My guess is that it's something you wouldn't need to worry about, but I don't know.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#292

Post by rdm_blackhole »

eecc wrote: post #288
rdm_blackhole wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The euro group did not follow austerity measures. Italy's debt has ballooned to 150% of it's GDP, France is heading for 130% in the near future. Whatever happened in the EU, was not Germany's responsibility. Even Greece's debt is way higher than it should be after the Euro zone austerity "cure". If there had been real austerity and real slashing of the national budgets so that all countries of the euro-zone actually…

You do realize that the debt/gdp ratio is a ratio? If you cripple the gdp through austerity policies (killing borrowing to chase the “responsibility dream”) the fiscal multiplier becomes a ruinous curse. Of course, pissing money into a spending bonfire, driving inflation with excess liquidity, isn’t going to help; bit it’s just as bad as crippling growth by holding it back for lack of capital injection

> You do realize that the debt/gdp ratio is a ratio?

I realize that. I just don't agree that any austerity measures have been taken which was the point of the comment I was responding to.

If real austerity had occurred then the countries' debt to gdp ratio should have been going down for at least a few years in order to get the expenses under control.

Unfortunately, that did not happen as many EU countries including Italy, France and Greece are still not within the EU rules to this very day.

> If you cripple the gdp through austerity policies (killing borrowing to chase the “responsibility dream”) the fiscal multiplier becomes a ruinous curse.

I agree except that these austerity measures as you put it if they ever existed, did not work because the debt to gpd ratio is still increasing in many EU countries.

> Of course, pissing money into a spending bonfire, driving inflation with excess liquidity, isn’t going to help; bit it’s just as bad as crippling growth by holding it back for lack of capital injection

Well Germany doesn't care supposedly. Where that takes us, who knows.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#293

Post by boxed »

NoGravitas wrote: post #264
boxed wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just find the "what have the romans ever done for us?" argument to be scary. It leads very quickly and easily to struggle sessions and the terror. I'm all for trying things for sure, but it has to be done in very small scale and over significant time scales.

"THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what…

Sure. And that longer and older terror was the lack of free markets and science. Exactly the thing the kids these days want to remove because "what did the romans ever do for us?".

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#294

Post by Attrecomet »

leosanchez wrote: post #259
instagraham wrote: post #125

There's a quote by Mahatma Gandhi that resonates whenever I see contrasting debates about this economic indicator or that: "I will give you a talisman. Whenever you are in doubt, or when the self becomes too much with you, apply the following test. Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man [woman] whom you may have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him [her]. Wi…

> But it will not benefit the poorest - social welfare schemes do that, but anti-homeless measures cancel it out. Can you explain what you mean by anti-homeless measures ?

"Hostile architecture" is a keyword to search here if you are more interested in the topic -- aka architecural elements meant to discourage certain segments of the population from existing in certain spaces.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#295

Post by instagraham »

leosanchez wrote: post #259
instagraham wrote: post #125

There's a quote by Mahatma Gandhi that resonates whenever I see contrasting debates about this economic indicator or that: "I will give you a talisman. Whenever you are in doubt, or when the self becomes too much with you, apply the following test. Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man [woman] whom you may have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him [her]. Wi…

> But it will not benefit the poorest - social welfare schemes do that, but anti-homeless measures cancel it out. Can you explain what you mean by anti-homeless measures ?

The other comments address it well. In the Indian context, I'd say it's all the slum demolition drives that have happened of late, often with questionable reimbursement if any.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#296

Post by torginus »

Tade0 wrote: post #22
p-e-w wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.

It's bursting as we speak, but certain actors are pulling every lever there is to slow down the process: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index Unsuccessfully, I might add.

I think housing as an appreciating is a weird Western capitalist socio-cultural artifact - in order to enter the middle class, you have to buy one, and the way to go about it smartly is to get a bank loan. Most people have no way of affording one otherwise, and if they did, paying sticker price for it would be dumb.

So everyone who's not considered a deadbeat shall be indebted to the bank for decades to come. Their prices are also supported by the collective power of the people - for whatever unreasonable price they're charging for it, you can be certain that someone (or some bank) has paid it, therefore it's in the best interest of significant chucks of regular folks that house prices don't go down.

Imo something similar is going on with retail investing.

Btw housing in China is not an appreciating asset, because you don't own the land, you merely lease it from the government for 70-100 years, which is about the natural lifespan of a lot of buildings, after which maintaining them becomes more expensiv than rebuilding them.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#297

Post by jdasdf »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #250
jdasdf wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps if people were burned for trusting electoral promises, they would be more mindful of their sustainability. Stop justifying pyramid schemes.

>Stop justifying pyramid schemes. It’s too late, those promises have been made. We have to lie in the bed we made. All you can do is stop making future promises.

>It’s too late, those promises have been made. We have to lie in the bed we made.

Yes, that involves treating it like pyramid schemes are treated.

That means:

- Arresting those involved in making them - Reclaiming all funds paid out - Refunding all funds paid in

Anything else isn't treating it like the pyramid scheme it is.

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