Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#291

Post by jibal » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 11:27 PM UTC

HaZeust wrote: post #270

jibal wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't consider myself an anti-vaxxer. But you write anti-vax comments filled with the usual anti-vax post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacies.

>"post hoc ergo propter hoc" Appealing to an informal fallacy, and not even using it right. The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy hinges on the fact that one's argument assumes that just because one event happened chronologically first, it must have caused the one(s) that chronologically came after. GP did more than that and didn't simply say "X happened first, so I think it's responsible for Y." He gave correlative…

> Appealing to an informal fallacy

I didn't appeal to one, I pointed one out. And there's something wrong now with pointing out fallacies just because they are informal? Apparently you don't understand what "informal" means in logic. (Or there's bad faith--a good case can be made here.)

> it's easy to see this comment having more than fallacy.

And yet you failed to point out a single one. You say that I used post hoc ergo propter hoc incorrectly, which I disagree with, but even if I did, that isn't a fallacy, it would simply be an error of fact. But remarkably you find multiple unnamed fallacies (formal, or informal?) in my one sentence.

I won't respond further.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#292

Post by vkou » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 11:44 PM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #278

vkou wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who got covid anyway I took it in 2020, and have taken booster shots. I got COVID... This year. I felt like shit for two weeks, was fatigured for a month, and had a lingering cough for two. Nobody's promised them that they won't get COVID after taking it. What is promised is that on the whole, they'd be less likely to get sick, get milder symptoms if they do get sick, and be less likely to require hospitalization o…

Here's Biden in 2021: > You’re not going to — you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/speeches-... Perhaps any statement in that context should be assumed to be oversimplified; but I don't think I can fault someone for taking words to mean what they literally say. The COVID vaccines look great so far on balance, but they absolutely were oversold…

Could you give the whole paragraph, and not just the last sentence in it?

Ah, heck, I'll do the work of pasting it in.

> But again, one last thing. I — we don’t talk enough to you about this, I don’t think. One last thing that’s really important is: We’re not in a position where we think that any virus — including the Delta virus, which is much more transmissible and more deadly in terms of non — unvaccinated people — the vi- — the various shots that people are getting now cover that. They’re — you’re okay. You’re not going to — you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations. -Biden

I'm not sure why out of all that Trump-lite-contradictory rambling (and the massive amounts of other words and ink spilled by both the 2020[1] and the 2021 administrations on this subject), that sentence is the singular, unqualified, pinky-swear blood-pact promise that you think the medical community made to the public regarding the vaccine.

---

As for Walensky:

> Three days later, on April 1, a CDC spokesperson seemingly walked back the director’s comments, telling The New York Times “Dr. Walensky spoke broadly during this interview” adding that “It’s possible that some people who are fully vaccinated could get Covid-19. The evidence isn’t clear whether they can spread the virus to others. We are continuing to evaluate the evidence.”

If you're only going to listen to the first thing that's said on a subject, and ignore everything that follows, I don't think that sort of approach will serve you very well. For one thing, it'll probably mean that you'll think that people who correct themselves are idiots.

---

[1] Which, if I may remind you, developed, recommended, and rolled out the vaccine and had nothing to do with Biden.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#293

Post by andreygrehov » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 12:43 AM UTC

magicalist wrote: post #233

andreygrehov wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FDA memo citing 10 vaccine-caused myocarditis deaths in kids came _after_ the Sept. 2025 ACIP vote. ACIP had already dropped routine vaccination for healthy kids 6 mo-17 yr and moved everyone under 65 to "shared decision-making" (high-risk only) [1] The detailed FDA analysis still isn't public. That's exactly why we should demand it instead of dismissing the claim. Blame NYTimes for leaking the internal memo. In…

> Blame NYTimes for leaking the internal memo. Blame them for what, exactly? We have no information about how highly motivated anti-vaxxers in positions of power over the FDA arrived at this conclusion except "the team has performed an initial analysis"[1]. That's literally it. Your claim that "FDA career scientists" conducted the follow-up can't even be based on this flimsy a statement. Moreover, these deaths have a…

The NYT shouldn't get a free pass for publishing a half-baked internal draft memo that even says "initial analysis" and then framing it as settled science. That's how you create panic and confusion, not transparency. Leaking unfinished work and splashing it on the front page is reckless. This should not be allowed.

Calling everyone "anti-vaxxers" is lazy. Most people I know who are skeptical of the covid shots (including plenty of doctors and scientists) are fully vaccinated against measles, polio, tetanus, etc. They just don't trust a product that skipped the usual 5–10 year safety window and got pushed with emergency authorization. That's not "anti-vax", that’s pattern recognition.

The memo is short on data and long on rhetoric, sure. That's exactly why we need the actual underlying review released in full.

You sound really invested in keeping those covid shots on the childhood schedule. Got a big Pfizer position in the 401k? Kidding, obviously. But the "anyone who asks questions is an anti-vaxxer" reflex is exactly why people stopped trusting the institutions in the first place. I respect every real skeptic, on any side. Asking questions is what moves science forward. Blind trust is stagnation.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#294

Post by andreygrehov » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 12:53 AM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #196

andreygrehov wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now. If the conclusion was fake…

> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. And we're back at the "Hitler provided free things to Jews" technical truth again. This is likely an accurate statement! But it'd deeply missing important context. > If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. This is likely meaningless to…

Your arguments in a nutshell:

   1. Hitler gave Jews free stuff (technical truth used to mislead)
   2. Dead bear guy doesn’t care about looking like a clown
   3. Therefore the OBPV causality review must be deceptive sleight-of-hand

That's literally a conspiracy theory.

On Tylenol, FDA did add a "possible association" warning in Sept 2025 (RFK’s call), but even the new label says evidence is only _suggestive_, not proven. Poop analogy fits the anti side better: no, avoiding fever meds won't prevent autism, but it could harm pregnancies.

What exactly is the "important context"?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#295

Post by array_key_first » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 12:58 AM UTC

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #288

xracy wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I interpret this as the comment saying "we won't know how this affected things until decades from now." Which can likely be attributed to existing vaccine skepticism and is unlikely to result in them changing their opinion in the next ever. What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID. They feel like they're being asked something risky in a vacuum, when i…

> What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID Why do people still frame this as either/or? How many people out there didn't get covid after they got some number of shots? The only real scenario is covid with n shots, where n >= 0. In other words, when you got covid, how many shots had you gotten. (Not anti vax myself, though generally avoid whatever drug…

We know that the vaccines lower your risk of bad outcomes if you get covid.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#296

Post by array_key_first » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:00 AM UTC

stocksinsmocks wrote: post #267

velcrovan wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

mRNA can't cause wolbachia. Wolbachia is a bacterium that actually lives inside cells and gets transmitted through eggs to offspring. it's a persistent organism that reproduces. There's not a way for mRNA to grow bacteria. mRNA is just a molecule that breaks down, and the mRNA in these vaccines is extremely fragile and temporary. Once injected it enters whatever cells are nearby (muscle cells)and ribosomes read it to…

I’m not suggesting comirnanty is wolbachia. If there is reproductive harm, or reproductive harm passed on to children, then we will not know for a long time. I believe that you’re well read on the CDC’s messaging on this topic. I’d like to bring to your attention that glyphosate was scientifically shown to pose no harm, but that key paper was retracted 25 years later. Pfizer is making over $10B/yr on comirnanty and a…

Yes, but imagine how much money hospitals can make if they can convince idiots to skip affordable preventable medicine and instead pay tens of thousands for hospital stays.

The money arguments are a double edged sword.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#297

Post by andreygrehov » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:07 AM UTC

tzs wrote: post #273

andreygrehov wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, let's run a proof by contradiction. Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality and the 10 deaths are not real or not proven. What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit? If he just wanted to scare people for no reason, the rational move i…

> What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit? That's never bothered him before. Vaccines cause autism. WiFi causes DNA changes and opens up the blood-brain barrier allowing toxins into the brain. Chemtrails. HIV is not a major cause of AIDS, with lifes…

You just listed a bunch of old-school RFK claims to dismiss him entirely.

That's exactly how people used to shut down anyone questioning:

- Vioxx

- lab leak

- opioids

- PFAS

...all “crazy conspiracy theories” until proven true.

I'm not saying vaccines cause autism (the evidence still doesn't). But stay skeptical, even of your own side. That's how science actually moves forward.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#298

Post by array_key_first » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:07 AM UTC

andreygrehov wrote: post #88

wnevets wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RFK Jr's FDA is imposing stricter vaccine protocols due to children deaths linked to Covid-19 vaccine-related myocarditis.

Are they lying about the deaths? I'm not following.

It's RFK Jr., obviously he is lying. He's legitimately insane.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#299

Post by andreygrehov » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:10 AM UTC

Aloisius wrote: post #274

andreygrehov wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FDA is imposing stricter vaccine protocols due to children deaths linked to Covid-19 vaccine-related myocarditis [1]. [1] https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-polit...

Both of these are true: 1) Vaccines kill people. 2) Vaccines save lives. That's why we evaluate relative risk. The vaccines that we recommend are significantly safer than not being vaccinated at all, for the population as a whole. This isn't limited to vaccines of course. Everything from antibiotics to defibrillators to car airbags can kill people too, but it's extremely rare compared to how often they save lives.

Yes. +1. I don't disagree with you at all.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#300

Post by pygy_ » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

pygy_ wrote: post #102

zosima wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

The vaccinnated group was 1 year older on average, and had mode cardiovascular risk factors. Covid has long term health consequences, and these are proportional to the severity of the acute infection. People who died of a stroke of a heart infarction 6 months down the line were not counted as "covid death", even though covid is known to increase their incidence in the next year.

Another factor that may play a role: the people who chose not to take the vaccine may be prone to taking bad decisions more broadly, leading to a higher mortality rate.