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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#291

Post by Den_VR »

thewebguyd wrote: post #197
johnnyanmac wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and people recover. So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? They aren't put on the streets, but it's clear some very long term damage is being done to people simply as a matter of bad luck.

> So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? Myself included. Graduated in '08, had to work various minimum wage jobs in retail for several years because no one was hiring. I'm just now at a point in my career, nearing 40, where I should have been at 28. Degree doesn't matter much when your only work experience is 5 years of working at Starbucks, and you barely have p…

> I'm just now at a point in my career, nearing 40, where I should have been at 28.

What or who is the standard for where you “should have been at 28?”

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#292

Post by mollusc-engine »

fHr wrote: post #170
mollusc-engine wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I became a USPS mail carrier instead. Certainly less pay but I love being outside and walking. And no Jira, changing the color of that button, or steeping myself in Frank’s eldritch horror code.

Yeah but isn't the pay shit? like making 1/3th is not a win in my books.

I have hella money.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#293

Post by johnnyanmac »

echelon wrote: post #155
johnnyanmac wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah pretty much. Engineers are going to be at a crossroad where they either turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?) or go out to the Wild West and hope they idea can sustain their livelihood. Given the vibes of the community here: I guess I'll look for a Mad Max mask (I'll ofc keep performing my civic duties, though).

A big tech breakup needn't be anti-capitalist. In fact, it might be the most pro-capitalist move. If you're an entrepreneur or VC, you want big tech broken up because they can put serious price pressure on your exit. Trillion dollar companies can easily spin up a team to copy you, with no incentive to stay alive. They can threaten you with all kinds of leverage - access to customers, patents, legislators. They can gi…

I think it depends on which kind of entrepreneur you're aiming to be. VC breakups are amazing if your goal is to box in and become a market competitor. But as of the last decade or so there's been plenty of "incubators" to take into account. startups whose goal is instead to be sold off to some major company and get their payday that way. Those kinds of models would deteriorate, and are likely what want to prop Big Tech up.

I do hope we have more genuine competitors fighting out there for breakupps. But it's hard to say these days.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#294

Post by brazukadev »

chasd00 wrote: post #61
master_crab wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat. Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

“Slightly higher than flat” is still a new record.

"The best iphone launched yet" feelings

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#295

Post by Marsymars »

fooker wrote: post #289
Marsymars wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are plenty of people who have managed to do this, from fairly normal tech jobs. Yeah, but there also isn’t enough wealth in the system for everyone to do this. Like suppose that a) we’re now at a reasonably correct valuation for Nvidia b) assume a hypothetical where everyone in the US had plowed all of their savings into Nvidia in 2015. Result: The market cap of Nvidia is still $6 trillion, and the median Ame…

I meant everyone with a good tech job, not everyone in the country. About a 1:1000 ratio I'd guess.

Sure, but there was nothing stopping people with $10k in savings in 2015 from buying Nvidia. If someone with $10k in savings had bought Nvidia in 2015, they’d have $2.5m today. But that only works for a relatively small number of people before the $2.5m is no longer $2.5m - they’re all drawing from the same $6 trillion pot. “Everyone with a good tech job” is accurate, but besides the point, it would work exactly the same if you limited it to “everyone who’s a plumber” or “everyone who’s a fedex driver”, but literally cannot work for everyone at the same time.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#296

Post by cwbriscoe »

ahtihn wrote: post #270
fooker wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, assuming you could invest 100k out of your 170k per year into companies you know were doing well on tech from 2015, how much would you have ? (say: AMD, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Facebook) The answer is about 10M, which is not that far from what I estimated, even without including Nvidia. Now add in house price appreciation. There are plenty of people who have managed to do this, from fairly normal tech jobs.

Sure, just save 100k out of your 170k comp, that's totally how normal people operate. And not only that, also pick the right stocks rather than just sticking everything in an index! Just magically turn 10x 100k into 10M!

I haven't got to 10m yet, but I saved 70-80% of my take home pay since ~2008 and I have enough to quit at any time and live the rest of my life without working. That is just by investing in the 3-fund portfolio and without the crazy SF salaries.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#297

Post by Den_VR »

SilverElfin wrote: post #269
mvr123456 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The data shows millennials as a whole are better off than boomers were at their age. Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Honest question, if you think this and it isn't just rage bait.. what data supports it? Scott Galloway disagrees and offers hard data, and goes as far as calling it intergenerational theft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEJ4hkpQW8…

> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…

The numbers that interest me are comparing home ownership rates at various ages between the generational groups

Lots of research shows about a 8-10% gap, that only at very specific ages finally achieved parity.

The consequence of this is a difference in wealth building, economic security, and family planning for millions.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#298

Post by port11 »

cal_dent wrote: post #62

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbin…

I've been unemployed for quite some time as a software developer with 13 years of experience.

The unemployment agency of my country tries to help, but the reality is that the amount of new jobs every week is staggeringly low since end-2024. The agent on my case was herself honest about the prospects. It's even worse for younger developers or very old folk.

I tuned into my old freelance network in Germany and the account manager told me they're seeing 60–70% less freelance work in tech.

I could get a job in the odd thing here and there, so I'm not immensely worried yet, plus it allows me to stay home and raise our baby. But I think everyone around me is worried, even outside tech.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#299

Post by cyberax »

echelon wrote: post #115
markus_zhang wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, but I forgot to mention that in the original reply I meant to say that "After the economy turns around, there is no point to hire me, an older guy with maybe a couple of gap years, who worked as a Uber driver for the last two years and can't leetcode". But yeah, new graduates is going to suffer anyway. And I'm scared of the collapse of the existing world order. Maybe we won't see a turn around for m…

New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…

> New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree.

We've just hired a couple of graduates, with the expectation that they are going to take some time to grow.

What I'm seeing right now is a huge influx of candidates from large companies that have zero skill. I'm not exaggerating, they can't code anything. And it's not just AI, they started working before ChatGPT came out.

Others in the industry are seeing the same and it's quite likely that your resume is getting lost.

One practical advice for resume writers from me. PLEASE, just don't put stuff like "Improved the API responsiveness by 23.123897%". Unless it's a crazy number like 100x.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#300

Post by aydyn »

SilverElfin wrote: post #269
mvr123456 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The data shows millennials as a whole are better off than boomers were at their age. Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Honest question, if you think this and it isn't just rage bait.. what data supports it? Scott Galloway disagrees and offers hard data, and goes as far as calling it intergenerational theft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEJ4hkpQW8…

> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…

I've read this as well, heres an economist article with a graph: https://archive.ph/Y3vvz

However, there are certainly a lot of conflicting studies and data out there. And to be honest, it doesnt feel true given how much young people complain on the internet. Its hard to see which asserion is correct. It isnt necessarily correct just because one study says its so.

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