Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions, so there's that.
Has he or are you just repeating a funny joke?
Both.
Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
291–300 of 352 posts
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#292Earlier quoted context omitted.
Especially if you take the view that AI is the new compute. There so many chips that need to get upgraded Thats maybe one of the largest TAMs of all time that hasn't even been touched at this point.
And Nvidia is going to own the whole thing, forever?
Given how fucked it’s competition is and how the delta between CUDA/NCCL and everything else like rocm/zulda has only grown yeah, Nvidia will own the whole thing for minimum 10 years.
Everyone who tried to compete failed hard because no one has the money, and raw talent or ability to get that talent needed to beat Nvidia at the software game.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
Has he or are you just repeating a funny joke?
He has. He’s notably been burned a few times, one of the worst of which was 2021 TSLA. Iirc he was early but not wrong, with the 2022 collapse of all things ARKK related crashing and burning.
He was in early for the 2008 recession as well, but that is generally better than being in late (as most of us were).
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#294Article is misleading/wrong on the sizing: > Scion bought roughly $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. But 13F reports the market value of the underlying shares for options, not the premium paid for the options All we know is at time of filing he has 10k NVDA puts and 50k PLTR puts. We don't know the strike price or the duratio…
Personally I find the reporting of underlying value more useful than the price paid in puts, since it reflects the asset itself rather than an arbitrary price for an option that could be any of many different strikes or expirations. The option price itself is not that meaningful.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#295Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well his 10 year performance is 255%. Which does not include his bet in 2005-08. Buffett has only done 154% in that time. So rumours of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
That doesn’t change the fact that he keeps making these doomsday predictions that don’t come true. Also, his returns aren’t really impressive compared to VTI, which has had an annualized return of 14.04% over the past 10 years according to Vanguard. That works out to 372% total returns in that period. It’s easy to make money when even the broadest US index fund is up by that much.
"He was born on third base, and is proud he's made it to second."
A joke said of Trump, of whom it is much more fair, but still...
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#296Before Burry's bets were disclosed, Palantir's trailing price-earnings ratio (P/E) peaked at 486x. What does that mean? I like to think about it this way: Absent growth, had a private investor purchased the business at 486x earnings, it would have taken the investor 486 years to recoup the investment. Only crazy-fast future growth could justify that multiple. I estimate earnings/share would have to grow 30-fold withi…
Expenses can be reduced too. It's not solely about earnings growth.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#297Parasite. Overly complex stock markets that produce nothing of value should be abolished. Real people have no need for high level financial concepts like that. The stock market should be for real trade, not incestuous exchanges between egregious executives.
You sound like people who condemn drug companies for avoiding this one simple herbal remedy "because they can't make big profits off of it."
It's far more complicated than you make it sound.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
And Nvidia is going to own the whole thing, forever?
Given how fucked it’s competition is and how the delta between CUDA/NCCL and everything else like rocm/zulda has only grown yeah, Nvidia will own the whole thing for minimum 10 years. Everyone who tried to compete failed hard because no one has the money, and raw talent or ability to get that talent needed to beat Nvidia at the software game.
This game is far from over and I find your prediction almost naive.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#299Article is misleading/wrong on the sizing: > Scion bought roughly $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. But 13F reports the market value of the underlying shares for options, not the premium paid for the options All we know is at time of filing he has 10k NVDA puts and 50k PLTR puts. We don't know the strike price or the duratio…
Personally I find the reporting of underlying value more useful than the price paid in puts, since it reflects the asset itself rather than an arbitrary price for an option that could be any of many different strikes or expirations. The option price itself is not that meaningful.
> The option price itself is not that meaningful.
Except it's literally what determines how much money is at risk in the trade. If you buy puts the actual underlying asset value doesn't matter as much as the value of the option itself (which is based on several factors such as time, strike price, etc)
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#300Earlier quoted context omitted.
The equivalent of "If you have to ask, you can't afford it" here is "If you have to ask, you shouldn't do it".
Overall for the common person I'd agree, but I assume we're all more or less hackers here and for us, I'd say "If you have to ask, ask and learn, then do it". If everyone followed your advice no one would ever do anything, as we all begin somewhere, something that should OK. Of course, don't do million dollar trades when you begin, but we shouldn't push back on people wanting to learn, feels very backwards compared t…
How about, "If you think an explanation from HN will explain it all to you, you're being naive about the complexities and risks"?